Thread: Opportunity COST

The only problem with that strategy would be some of the real big "ups and downs' do not occur until later in the day (maybe a partial effect of day traders and automated programs??).....Since we have to have our allocation in by Noon EST for the next day, that makes it even more speculative, won't you say?!?!?!?

Peace, pk

(I have noticed that if the 2 weeks prior to the end of the month are not a bloodbath, and have decent or even modest gains, then the last day of the month usually sucks, like 28 Feb 2006 did!!!!!)..

Originally Posted by Eagle_Addict

The only problem with that strategy would be some of the real big "ups and downs' do not occur until later in the day (maybe a partial effect of day traders and automated programs??).....Since we have to have our allocation in by Noon EST for the next day, that makes it even more speculative, won't you say?!?!?!?

Peace, pk

(I have noticed that if the 2 weeks prior to the end of the month are not a bloodbath, and have decent or even modest gains, then the last day of the month usually sucks, like 28 Feb 2006 did!!!!!)..

true
here's another trendy indicator 4 ya off the tt board...LOL:

I will state right up front that traders should be very cautious about actually accepting this data or this study at full face value, and/or at making trading decisions based on these Studley dates. There may be a tiny tinge of cynicism contained herein. wink.gif}

Over the last 5 years, since my chance encounter with Dr. Randolph B. Studley at a symposium of world-class marine biologists at the University of Hawaii in 2000, I've been fascinated by the overlap in Dr. Studley's work with the mating pattern of dolphins, and my own work with stock market cycles. I really didn't belong at this scholarly affair. But one of my clients, a biology professor and then head of department for UH, knowing my interest in these very intelligent mammals, managed to sort of "sneak me in" to a back row seat, as his way of thanking me for the mortgage work I had done for him. And the rest is history.


As I watched the overhead projections which Dr. Studley displayed over the course of his lecture, something clicked within me. A major part of that presentation was a timeline, showing the rising and falling of mating instincts among the males of this magnificent species. In simplest terms, his timelines showed the level of "horniness" among the "studs" of the species, both in the past, and projected weeks into the future.

The rise and fall of these levels looked very familiar to me, though, obviously, I'd never even thought about horny dolphins in my entire life, let alone graphing their testosterone levels! But "why this déjà vu feeling?" I wondered. Then it hit me like a mega-ton fishing vessel! Those very peaks and valleys occurred on important stock market inflection points! But was I just imagining it? I couldn't be sure. I needed more…


I needed to make contact with Dr. Studley, and I needed somehow to persuade him to allow me to obtain his data so that I could get this data into a format that I could overlay on my own data - of stock market daily cycles. But that was not to be… at least throughout the years 2000, 2001,2002, 2003, and 2004! Randolph B. Studley, it seemed, was a phantom. He exited the symposium after his lecture was done, and all of my efforts to find him afterwards were met with utter failure.


No one, I soon learned, knew anything about this mysterious man. Not my biology professor friend/client, not Yahoo, Alta Vista, nor Lycos. Not the omnipotent AOL. Not even Google. He was, it seemed, invisible. But deep inside, I knew that I must find him, because contained in his work, I became increasingly certain, was what Douglas Adams called the answer to life, the universe, and everything!

Rather than bore the reader with the long difficult process of sleuthing that dominated my next 4 ½ years, I'll just fast forward to February 2005. That was when I finally "found" Dr Studley in a tiny outpost of Thailand, continuing his work, using increasingly sophisticated computer technology. By now he had what I've now come to affectionately think of as "Studley turn dates" plotted well into the 23rd century!

It wasn't easy, but I somehow managed to persuade the good doctor to provide me just one aspect of his data - the "Studley dates" for the last 30 years, and to my exquisite delight, forward for the next 50! Unbelievable!


But did the data have the value I suspected? I couldn't wait to find out - by overlaying the last 30 years data upon the SPX daily charts. I won't keep you in suspense. The "fit" was way beyond astounding. In fact, I've since commissioned a study of this fit by the head of the Mathematics department at the University of Puuomao, Dr. Milton Bradley, and his study shows that the probability of these dates meshing with inflection points over the last 30 years to this level of "perfection" is approximately 0.767 in 10 to the minus 146th power! In other words (for non mathematically oriented readers), there was essentially NO chance that the data was matched only by chance. The dates correlated with inflection points for the SP500, plus or minus 3 days, at better than 99.44%. Inflection points are defined as trend turning points (highs or lows) and/or acceleration points.


I've decided that as my gift to Fearless Forecasters everywhere, I will share this data - and will publish the Studley turn dates here at Trader's Talk for the years 2006. Beyond 2006, I've not yet made a decision on whether or by what means, this data will be released. Dr. Studley has indicated to me that his work desperately needs further funding, and he has asked me to look into the licensing and selling of this data in one way or another - beyond December 31, 2006.


So, now, the 2006 Studley turn dates. There are exactly twenty:


January 2

February 28

March 1

March 23

April 22

May 5

May 10

May 16

May 27

June 17

June 24

July 23

August 4

September 3

September 21

November 13

November 26

December 9

December 17

December 19

LOL!!! Obviously dolphins are riding more than just waves! But my thought is what happened on 2/28/ & 3/1/ on the chart as the enthusiasim changes in consecutive days and it only happens that one time on the chart. What effected this to happen? Since dolphins travel in schools maybe the teacher was too upfront! It could be that big momma found daddy playing in little sisters pool so to speak. I don't now much about dolphins but I would say there has to be something effecting the karma on these consecutive dates. My imagination is traveling to where no dolphin has gone. LOL!! Maybe I should take cruise to see for myself.

From what I can gather, these dates are days of major turn-arounds. If the market is going UP at the time, then that day it will have a major "relaxation". If it's going DOWN at that time, then it will have a major "explosion" that day.

Having never really studied dolphins before, I'm not sure about this. However, I did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night............

I saved BIG money on my TSP investments by switching to DOLPHIN.
You cracked me up technobucks.

Originally Posted by teknobucks

as noted by some folks here..... it's true a buy and hold on the s or i fund over the last several months would of produced handsome gains, however the exposure of assets going forward with helicopter ben is too much 4 me.
the value of commodities, tangibles, and stock must go up to compensate for loss of value in the greenback as we print away.
plan to jump in on 1% plus down days and out very quickly for the next few months.
i and s funds appear 2 be the traders choice now in this new world order fiat rally....LOL
good luck 2 all!
tekno

The I fund is designed for the helicopters. This is why some time ago I stated that, of the set of choices in our TSP, the I fund is the safest for yours truly. Are there going to be ups and downs? Sure but the trend has been more then established for three years and running. Good luck.

So, according to our horney dolphin friends, we are in for a three week down turn, correct?

Don't think that's how it works. I believe he's just saying that on those particular dates the market will have a major move in the opposite direction. The rest of the time is just your typical courting one day and fighting the next..........