Market Talk / Feb. 5 - Feb. 11

**Spaf** · 02-05-2006, 05:36 AM

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Feb. 05, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:

Market Yak............ Volatility in the energy sector is unnerving the market! Growth of the manufacturing sector is being slowed by the rising energy cost. Vestors also worry about continued rate hikes due to inflation and tight labor market. Until the market can see an end to rate hikes, and is assured that inflation is controlled, it's difficult to see a breakout upside.

Other Yak.............. Mr. Market is still stuck in the 2006 trading range 1287 (resistance) to 1259 (support) [$SPX]. Currently nearing the support level. Will it be a whipsaw back up, or a break out to the downside?

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1264.03, dn -19.69 for the week.
Money flow............ +0.114, decreasing.
Averages............... +1.75, decreasing.
Slow STO.............. 40.59, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 44.6 [30]
Stops.................... NA.

Chart.................... 6mo., 20dMA, P-SAR, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 65.37, dn -2.39 for the week.
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Yellow/Red.

The Tin Box:
Position.................. 100G.
TSP Ended: G=11.20 F=10.67 C=13.74 S=17.12 I=18.42
Last Week: G=11.19 F=10.68 C=13.95 S=17.27 I=18.60

Wizard · 02-05-2006, 11:23 AM

Garden variety - head and shoulders.

**JOVARN** · 02-05-2006, 02:32 PM

SPAF:
I am waiting for support level S&P to hit 1230. With oil at $65 and Iran on everyone’s mind we may it this week. Then again I may miss the boat for this trip but be certain there will be other sailings. I am still up 9.6% for the past 4 months and I hate to part with any of it.

EVENTS this week.
The Fed will be in focus again this week as two Federal Reserve Bank presidents speak out on the economy. On Monday, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will speak in London, while Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow will address the local economy in a Chicago speech Thursday. Given the new uncertainty over when the Fed, both speeches will be thoroughly parsed by strategists and could move stocks -- though there's no telling where.

**Spaf** · 02-05-2006, 10:27 PM

Originally Posted by JOVARN

SPAF:
I am waiting for support level S&P to hit 1230. With oil at $65 and Iran on everyone’s mind we may it this week.

1230 would be good, that would get us out of range bound. We need some warm weather. March 20, spring begins.

Wiz is saying sell the head and shoulders! http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech..._shoulders.htm

Hmmm

Wizard · 02-05-2006, 11:46 PM

Booyah homegamers!

http://www.stockcharts.com/education...uldersTop.html

**teknobucks** · 02-06-2006, 04:54 AM

Originally Posted by Spaf

1230 would be good, that would get us out of range bound. We need some warm weather. March 20, spring begins.

Wiz is saying sell the head and shoulders! http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech..._shoulders.htm

Hmmm

the more u stare at a chart the more head and shoulders u will c....LOL

**Spaf** · 02-06-2006, 05:22 AM

EEK!

Wizard · 02-06-2006, 01:56 PM

S&P 500 stocks remain in the Distribution Phase. Last week, the ratio of stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the up/down ratio) fell for the third consecutive week from 2.81 to (307/123=) 2.50. Only 18 stocks broke resistance (including two on Friday: MYL, CVS). Thirty five stocks broke support (including 19 stocks on Friday: SNA, ECL, GTW, APCC, SGP, WPI, HCA, STJ, DHI, LEN, FISV, PCAR, UPS, ED, ETR, CNP, AIG, MTG, PCL). Notable sectors with technical breakdowns last week included Home Builders, Utilities and Insurance.

Wizard · 02-06-2006, 01:59 PM

On the open: A gap and crap. Did not see that coming.

**Pilgrim** · 02-06-2006, 02:16 PM

Pardon my ignorance: What is a "gap and crap"?

**Birchtree** · 02-06-2006, 02:18 PM

Remember when stocks looked like a sure thing to most people in 2000? Now that place has been taken by real estate, and many people now see stocks as inherently risky and dangerous. This is classic mentality. Hope they all enjoy their new porches.

Dennis