Thread: Market Talk Jan. 29 - Feb. 4

is over and when I get back the market makes a minor move.... Looking for a down draft for a few days.

Dollar is getting stronger,and should be for a period....

Interesting market action should be happening from now till April..(What will happen at that time.......M3 isn't going to be reported anymore, 1st quarter ends...what else oh, reasons for the oil wrench to get torqued again)..and then we will see where it goes....

Looks like another day of flying yields. Tomorrow 2:15pm or so fed fund rate 4.50% and 10 year 4.53%. 30 year treasury auction Feb 9. That will be interesting.

Hopefully this message posts. Was unable to over the weekend.

Wizard,
You seem well versed in bond speak. Whats the 10 year and fed funds rate mean to the economy?

Inversion..............

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 30, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks mixed! Vestors jittery over Cartel creature.
Other Yak.............. Krude kicks lube up to weekly high.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1285.20, up +1.48
Money flow............ +0.214, increasing.
Stops.................... NA.
Averages............... +3.58, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 42.07, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 58.3 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 68.35, up +0.59
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

Clester:

Most investors are very weary of flat yield curves much less one that inverts from lower yields for longer term bonds to higher yields to shorter term bonds.
If bond yields "invert" over a period of 30 days ... I believe it is ... then chances of a recession six months down the road are about 80%.

It's something like that.

Some analysts ... like Bob Brinker ... are saying the Fed should stop raising rates after Greenspan leaves.

Word is Greenspan and Bernanke may think alike about a "core" inflation rate of no more than two percent.

I believe Dec. 05 core rate came in at 1.9 percent.

Energy prices are acting as a drag on the economy; they are both taking away purchasing power and inflating prices of other goods and services at the same time.

As you know Exxon's profits over the past year have broken the record for any American corporation in history.

maybe evenb down a little, then i think up a little, then, with the next ten days, a pretty hefty downward movement.

I'm up over 8% this month, currently sitting 30 % S, 30% C, 40% I- but thinking its time to roll into "preserve the gain" mode.

What do you think? Is it time to roll 60% into G and hold the gain?

That is what I have been doing- runnning back and forth between 60% G after a good run up, and then buying back in on the dips....but I can't tell yet if this is the coasting near the top for a while....

Two of the factors I think will hit shortly, but won't be visible for another couple weeks in any hard data, are:

1. Energy- heating bills much bigger now appearing; and
2. Credit Card new laws- making double the minimum payment required.

I think that will be the one-two punch of february and march.....

thoughts, anyone?

along the East Coast January has been unseasonably warm so heating bills seem to be coming in much lower than expected...

Market Talk
Fundamentals
Jan. 30, 2006

News: NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Exxon Mobil Corp. set U.S. records for annual and quarterly profits Monday as it easily topped fourth-quarter earnings forecasts.

The nation's largest oil company reported net income in the fourth quarter of $10.7 billion, or $1.71 a share, compared to $8.4 billion, or $1.30 a share, a year earlier.

Hunh! Spaf

[QUOTE=Quips]Clester:

Energy prices are acting as a drag on the economy; they are both taking away purchasing power and inflating prices of other goods and services at the same time.

... when personal and national debt levels are also figured into the mix, I have a healthy respect for gold investors.

My next investment will either be a portion of that/a basket of such commodities or emerging marrkets.

The optimist would go for emerging markets in my opinion; the pessimist into gold, chemicals, paper, steel, etc.

I guess we got the answer if oil profits profits are from legit business.....in other words did they earn a reasonable profit from their cost of producing a product or ...

did they jack you up and say "I GOTCHA!"....

Oh the humanity......boy, maybe I should get into a position and JACK the general public up and say the same thing......but something tells me that would be putting the screws on an innocent bunch and that would make me a WHAT!!!!????? How do they live with themselves?????

Did anybody read George Soros evaluation of possiblities that may come our way....something like $235/bbl.....now why would he be interested in that???.... maybe he is conspiring with others to jack up oil prices to stuff our economy for economic and political power purposes... ..all he wants is access to the general publics tax revenues, then he and the other like him are filthy rich!!!!..... off of "your back" I might say.....now how in the h e ll do you like that......