Thread: Market Talk / Jan. 15 - 21

I'll be watching the performance of both the DJTA and the DJUA in coming weeks. Neither of those indexes matched or confirmed the recent new bull-market highs set by the DJIA. The DJTA was 1.2% below and the DJUA 5.1% below their recent bull market peaks. These were both actually all-time highs. Although those are not insurmountable deficits, they are negative non-confirmations or divergences versus the DJIA. Friday was positive for the utilities, so it's just a matter of time. Wait for me.

Dennis

Nikkei in free-fall. Hmm...maybe a buying opportunity tomorrow?

Japan down over 4% in two days.

OIL RISES

Oil climbed further as a militant threat to Nigerian oil exports and Iran's standoff with the West over its nuclear ambitions kept the market worried about supply disruptions.

Brent crude (LCOH6) for March was up 86 cents to $64.04 a barrel by 1020 GMT, after rising 58 cents on Monday.

U.S. light crude for February (CLc1) jumped $1.42 to $65.34 in catch-up gains after being closed for a national holiday on Monday.

Crude flows from Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest oil exporter, are being threatened by violence in its oil-rich delta region, while Iran remains a longer-term concern.

Equity markets will also closely watch U.S. industrial production data at 1415 GMT, while, later in the week, inflation data and speeches by Fed officials are also due.
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AP
Most Asian Markets Drop
Tuesday January 17, 5:44 am ET
Most Asian Markets Drop, As Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul Fall Sharply


HONG KONG (AP) -- Most Asian markets dropped Tuesday, with stock sin Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul falling sharply.
Japan's main stock index plunged 2.8 percent, posting its biggest loss in nearly two years amid a high-profile investigation of Internet company Livedoor Co.

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Daily FX
Oil Set to Weigh Down Dollar Tuesday
Monday January 16, 5:43 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com


US Dollar
With the US markets closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, trading has been exceptionally quiet. The dollar has been caught within a 30 pip trading range against the Euro as the market assesses what the new week may bring. Weekend developments seem to point to the possibility of a bit more weakness for the dollar at the onset of Tuesday trading. Tensions have continued to increase with Iraq as they warned of soaring oil prices if they are subjected to economic sanctions. As we have been warning recently, Iran does have the sway to push up oil prices. As the world’s third largest holder of oil reserves, Iran is really the only country left that has excess capacity to produce additional oil. The only 2 countries that have more oil is Saudi Arabia, who is suspected to be already producing at full capacity and Canada, who’s recently discovered oil sands will take a significant amount time to extract. Iran on the other hand is only producing about 4 million barrels per day and is capable of increasing production by another 3 million barrels. Therefore, Iran’s threats are not just open threats. If the situation worsens and Iran actually follows through with their words, $100 oil may not be out of the question and neither will $600 gold. For the currency market, this could cause a great deal of volatility and would translate into strength for currencies like the Canadian dollar, Swiss Franc and Aussie. Opening up the week with higher political uncertainty will make it more difficult for the dollar to rally even if Tuesday’s US Empire State and Industrial production reports come out strongly. With colder weather in the Northeast, there is good possibility of oil prices opening up much higher on Tuesday, which would be dollar bearish. In all likelihood, any recovery in the dollar may not come until Wednesday, when we expect CPI, the Beige Book report as well as speeches from Fed President Bies and Lacker.

Euro
The Euro is slightly weaker against the dollar today but much of that weakness came in the European trading session and not the US trading session. Instead, the Euro quietly recuperated its losses after coming 3 pips shy of 1.2100. Inflation figures out of Italy painted a very similar picture to that of the France last Friday. Italian inflation growth for the month of December was confirmed at flat, while French inflation growth reported last week was a mere 0.2% (EU Harmonised). Before jumping the gun on declaring that inflation has been tamed however, we still need to see tomorrow’s German consumer price inflation reports. Right now, the estimates are for higher inflation growth in the month of December. Judging from the recent consumer price inflation reports released from the Eurozone and producer price inflation reports released from the US, the surprise will most likely be to the downside. The big question is then if German consumer price inflation also comes in weaker than expected, will that deter the European Central Bank from raising interest rates this quarter. The lack of the word “vigilant” in Trichet’s press conference suggests that Trichet may have already had a first hand look at the data. For the time being, a 25bp rate hike this quarter is still on track.

NYMEX Crude up 2.22% now. $65.34.

NYMEX Heating oil up 3.27%.

Ahh, winter is upon us.

It never fails....when the market looks like it is overcooked they always find a way or reason to drop it... ..price of oil is the big fulcrum here and there are too many entities to control to stop its rise....unfortunately for the perpetrators of high oil prices, it will come to haunt them, we will suffer poor markets and so forth, but they, will suffer far more.....all it remains to be seen is how soon and how far they make the black stuff go up.....I fear this summer is really going to be an eye-opener.....if the economy hasn't stopped yet, it will and we will go into dullsville for a while...

We should be Slip sliding away.... its just a matter of time....

8:30am 01/17/06 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 20.1 VS REV 26.3 IN DEC

Slllllllllloooooooooowwwwwwwwwwww down.

Crawling like a bottom feeder. EFA down 1.64%.

The only index that is green currently is the DJ Utilities. Perhaps a harbinger showing the way toward the light - before the end of the day. This could be an intra day bottom waiting on the programs to hit - buying.

The Dow, the Transports, SPX, COMPQ, R2k are all down today and in a three to four day downtrend (Dec 27th top for TRAN). The dollar is finding support at its 200 day average. I wouldn't touch the I fund in the short term if your life depended on it. The dollar will bounce back in the short term and the overseas markets already had their runs. Staying out of the market another day because I would rather be a day late getting in that four days early. Will wait to see what earnings and guidance is given by the likes of YHOO, INTC and IBM.

DOW 10900 taken out.

DOW 11,000 seems so long ago.

I opioned last Thursday that is not a healthy pullback and Wednesday was more then likely is a near term top.

Nice little start of the year headfake rally to get the ROTH/IRA money coming in on the "excitement".

Still 100% G. Just glad to get the .01 tonight. 20 year bond auction coming up. The 5/10 years did not go over to well last week. Not sure who wants to take 20 years of risk for about the same yield as a 2 year bond. .