Thread: Market Talk

Here is my mix
45% C 45%S 10% I since 10/20/05
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Yes we will have a pull back! Can you trade it with the 1-2 day delay in TSP accounts ?
I just don't belive we are going to have a BIG pull back in 05...
If you are long I would suggest you stay the course... If you are out of the market now I would wait for ANY pull back and jump in... I have looked at all the indexies and 100's of stocks ... 6 mo from now we are going to be higher than we are today "for sure"... The only thing that worries me is the bird flue !!! It could destroy the markets and the world and I don't know how to play it YET ... It could even be another year 2000 scare , but I don't think so. Opions ?...
Here my tech Ed Downs . Check out his site also.
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Steady Climb Dow pushes higher throughout session, but shows signs of slowing.

From prior commentary, "...Look for the index to hold the current highs, while forming a continuation pattern before the next mega advance.
Continued near-term strength will be seen as long as the index remains above 10,800..."

The Dow traded quietly higher throughout most of the session today, as the index racked up 80 points before dropping to the Close. The index ended the day with a nice 45 point gain, but may begin to show weakness now that it has nearly reached the year's highs.
The Daily and Weekly Charts show the Dow has come within a scant 35 points of reaching the year's highs at 10,985. The index has basically sprinted from the 10,200 level without much of a rest, covering about 750 points in the process. While the longer term outlook is very strong for the Dow, look for the index to pull back toward the 10,825 level before new highs are seen.
The 60 Minute Chart shows the lower trend line that has formed beneath the lows of the current uptrend. The Dow is likely to pull back to this lower line before another move is seen. Such a pull-back will likely cause the formation of a continuation pattern. However, should the index break below 10,800, a larger pull-back may be seen.
Short Term Dow
The Dow closed the day above intraday support at 10,905, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for strength above this level Friday morning, unless a violation occurs.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long at 10,925 today, but stopped out at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. We are out of the market and will watch 10,800 down, and 11,000 up; using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off from the day's highs to Close the session, which hints at a possible near-term overbought situation. Watch for a continuation pattern to form at the overall highs before the next key move occurs.
Summary
The Dow ended the day with a modest sell-off after closing strong the last several days. This may be the first indication of a likely retracement within the current uptrend. Such a pull-back could take the index back toward the 10,825 zone. Otherwise, a break through 10,950 will give us our first test of 11,000 in quite a while.
Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!
Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com
with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

myyyyy broker is E.F. Hutton....psyche..lol...ref maybe lost on x-gens.

but my reeaall broker..Yu Dee Chang, Pres. of Chesapeake Investments (+$122M under managment) thinks monday should follow thru up, with pullback tuesday and or wednesday, longer if a less steep consolidation, or faster and steeper pullback

Tom wrote:

Then there is the lowrisk.com survey. I mentioned this survey a few times but I don't follow it very closely. It is a herd type survey which puts it in the "dumb money" category.

What is Tom's poll for next week? Bullish or Bearish

Results of the Wall Street Sentiment Survey (formerly known as the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment) taken after the close on 11/25/05

Response was to this question: "At the end of next week will the S & P 500 close up (bull), down (bear), or unchanged/no opinion (neutral)?"

Weekly BULLS: 14%
Weekly BEARS: 50%

Our `Smart Money' Pollees are twice as neutral as they are Bearish and not at all Bullish.

The Senticator is Bearish.

This should indicatewe won't get much weakness or weakness that lasts too long.



Comments from a Tech:

Bigger picture, we're set up for a pullback, but we are on the left-hand side of the market top so weakness will almost assuredly be followed by higher prices. My call is going to be for a two day pullbackearly in the week with higher prices into week's end. Be alert, however, for the pullback to come later in the week.

Read this from IBD
Dour Crowd So Wrong It's Right; Market Has Rallied for6Week AS_AD('Middle1'); //--> BY KEN HOOVER
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 11/25/2005
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong," legendary stock market sage Humphrey Neill said decades ago.
It's a timeless paradox: When the crowd is certain stocks can only go lower, the market goes higher. And when everyone is giddy with optimism, the market is likely ready to take a costly tumble.
Investors should focus their attention on the price and volume action of the major market averages and leading stocks.
The market bottomed on Oct. 13, then followed through with a strong gain on good volume Oct. 19. It signaled further strength on Nov. 2 and 3.
Still, sentiment indicators do help provide a fuller picture of how the market is doing.
So what is the mood of investors now that a solid-looking rally is more than one month old?
Earlier this month, an indicator created by market strategists at Citigroup signaled one of the highest levels of pessimism since 1994, when the market was about to start a powerful bull market. Investor gloom is even deeper than after 9-11 or just prior to the Iraq War in March 2003.
"On of the reasons is that even though 9-11 was a huge shock to everyone, in many instances people just hung on. It was too late to sell," said Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich.
The indicator is called the Panic/Euphoria Model or the Other PE.
Each year, Levkovich and his colleagues sort through 60 indicators of market sentiment. They pick the eight with the best predictive records over the past 18 years and mold them into the Panic/Euphoria Model.
By doing this, Citigroup aims to address a common shortcoming with psychological indicators: A particular gauge may spot market tops or bottoms for a while, then stop working.
The model's current sentiment indicators are:
• Margin debt.
• Nasdaq volume as a percentage of NYSE volume.
• Retail money flows
• Put/call ratio.
• CRB futures index.
• Gasoline prices.
• Short interest ratio between public and NYSE member firms.
• The average between the Investors Intelligence and American Association of Individual Investors.
"It's dangerous to rely on just one factor," Levkovich said.
The weekly composite indicator hit a low of -0.87 on May 6, just as the market was starting a rally that would last until August. It bottomed again at -0.83 on Nov. 4, right after the market moved decisively higher, reconfirming the current rally.
The lowest reading ever was -0.88 on July 15, 1994, just before the start of a huge bull market.
Levkovich won't give away many details of how the indicator is constructed except to say that five of the eight components are contributing to the buy signal.
It's not hard to identify some of them.
Key Bullish Levels Triggered
The put/call ratio hit 1.07 on Oct. 12 and 13, just as the market was hitting bottom. Readings over 1.0 occur when investors are buying more bearish puts than bullish call options, which tends to happen near intermediate market bottoms. It hit 1.18 on Oct. 14, 2004, just as a year-end rally was getting under way, and 1.22 this year on April 15, days before the start of a rally.
Nasdaq volume has also been moderate as a percentage of NYSE volume. When investors feel confident, they're more likely to trade in speculative Nasdaq names. When they're scared, they tend to stick with stable NYSE stocks.
The CRB futures index, a measure of the prices of a basket of commodities, and gasoline prices don't seem like psychological indicators at first glance. But Levkovich insists they are.
"When people are buying high prices at the pump, they feel kind of lousy," he said.
And rising commodity prices are a sign of a recovering economy, he added.
One perplexing sentiment indicator is the Investors Intelligence weekly poll of investment advisers. A staple of market watchers since 1963, the poll hasn't signaled a prolonged period of bearishness among newsletter writers since 1994. There hasn't been more bears than bulls since October 2002.
John Gray, Investors Intelligence editor, said he now considers a bullish reading when the spread between bulls and bears gets down to 12 or 15 percentage points. He says there's too many bulls when the number gets to 55% or 60%.
Its last low was Oct. 28, when there were 44.8% bulls and 29.2% bears. The current reading is 53.1% bulls and 29.1% bears.
Some popular sentiment indicators are absent from Levkovich's model, including the closely watched CBOE volatility index, known as the VIX. He says it's lost its predictive power because of professional hedging strategies and the increased use of exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, which decrease volatility.
Confirming Citigroup, another sentiment gauge, the State Street Investor Confidence Index, gave its lowest reading in October going back to 1998. The index has rebounded this month.
The State Street index seeks to track the movement of institutional money into and out of stocks. It shows that institutions are as subject to crowd psychology as anybody else.
The index's lowest reading until now was October 1998 when Russia defaulted on its debt and a big hedge fund collapsed, threatening some banks. But it was the exact right time to be ready to put money into the market.
But not everybody's sentiment index is flashing a big buy signal.
Tim Hayes maintains his own composite index for Ned Davis Research and it shows a moderate amount of optimism. It's a more short-term indicator that moved quickly from showing modest pessimism. It's given six buy and six sell signals since the end of 2003.

The Market folks have developed a special terminology-language to help articulate
It’s conditions. Often at times one is confronted with a word that is alien, or has
A different meaning from what one thought.
Misrepresenting (misunderstanding) these terms can sometimes lead to the wrong conclusion.

Some of the "Techs" and "Reports" use the wrong terminology!

If they don't use the right language, IMHO, I don't put much faith in them!

RE: http://www.trading-glossary.com

Rgds! :? Spaf

Starting a new thread!

See ya Sunday!

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

I think to answer your question is that the I fund although effected by the dollar daily is not necessarily an indicator that the fund will drop or go up. It is still a mixture of the international funds listed by TSP and if these funds do well theI fund will continue to do fine and vise versa. It may effect the voltile movement of the fund though. The dollar can continue to go up and the I fund may do so also but not as fast as we may like it too.

from 100-g I gonna move some for two days
short term .for thursday & friday and then mondays back
100 -g

today 100-g

thurdays & friday60-g 10-c 10 s 20-i

monday dec 5 back to 100-g :^

I'll come back on monday dec.18 100% stock

That's is my plan for DEC... :^

I can be death wrong but my
cristalball is telling me that tomorrow
1st dec. can be a good green day