Thread: So, how bad could our TSP Accounts be hurt by who Bush picks to replace Greenspan?

How about one of Hillary's buddies from Refco? They did well for her-remember.

Please, it is President Doofus.

Word is that it is narrowed down to:

a) Donald Trump

b) the CEO of Exxon-Mobil

c) Buffalo Bill Cody

d) King Faud

e) Arthur Levitt

If he named Bernanke I would not be the least surprised. He is considered a 'Team Player' and seems quite willing to keep the liquidity pumping. I think he was the onewho mentioned a willingness todrop money out of helicopters, if need be, to keep the economy vibrant. That would not portend well for the dollar in the long term, but it would probably improve the balance sheet as far as the triple deficits go. And, as far out of balance as the triple deficits are that means the dollar has a very long way to go down. Some are saying the dollar may go to the low50s on the USDX before the deficits are reined in. The 64 million dollar question is whether the dollar will grind down slowly or drop very quickly. The answer to that question may depend largely on foreign central bank's willingness to hold and continue purchasing dollars at the same tempo they have in the past. Those foreign central banks are going to be faced with the uneviablechoice of continuing to support the dollar destined to be devalued andkeep their exports flowing to the U.S. or choosing tounass their dollarpositions slowly and gradually, yet before everyone else does,andtake the risk their remaining dollar holdings will be worth even less. If these foreign governements are smart they will diversify their customer base away from the U.S. consumer and be potentiallyless vulnerable to aworldwideU.S. dollar dump or devaluation. Anyway, I'm starting to get more and more of those 0% credit card offers in the mail for balance transfers and purchases good through January of 2007. I'd say the Bernankehelicopters are not too far off in the distance...wap...wap...wap...wap.

I apologize. I really didn't answer the topic question.

I believe interests rates will continue to go up in an attempt to keep the foreign investors and central banks on board. Those rates will have to go up a lot. Probably much higher than they did in the early eighties if they are successful in keeping the foreign investors playing ball with them. That won't be good for real estate or the C or S fund. And the G fund will be losing its purchasing power on the interest rate climb. Once those rates top out possibly in the 25-30 per cent range or maybe higher,a split between theF and Gfund would be a good place to be.

Too bad we don't have a TSP fund that locks in a long term Treasury ratefor 10 years or so. If a person had a hundred grand in the TSPknocking out 30 per cent interest a year for ten years after interest rates topped...oh...my...oh...my.

While the dollar continues dropping to the point interest rates top out, the I Fund should provide the best overall returns, in my opinion, as the I Fund tends to have an inverse relationship to the dollar. Yes, the dollar will have a few dead cat bounces along the way that might give the C and S fund a temporary reprieve, but the trend is down for the dollar. There will come a point in the dollar's decline that I will quit trading between the G and I Fundand simplyhold on firmly to the I Fund. Once the dollar dumping begins in earnest trading the TSP funds will not be a good idea because of trade execution lag time. If we had real time trades and stayed glued to the monitor all day...possibly...but it wouldn't be my style.

Quips wrote:

Please, it is President Doofus.

LOL!

Wimpy wrote:

If he named Bernanke I would not be the least surprised. He is considered a 'Team Player' and seems quite willing to keep the liquidity pumping. I think he was the onewho mentioned a willingness todrop money out of helicopters, if need be, to keep the economy vibrant. That would not portend well for the dollar in the long term, but it would probably improve the balance sheet as far as the triple deficits go. And, as far out of balance as the triple deficits are that means the dollar has a very long way to go down. Some are saying the dollar may go to the low50s on the USDX before the deficits are reined in. The 64 million dollar question is whether the dollar will grind down slowly or drop very quickly. The answer to that question may depend largely on foreign central bank's willingness to hold and continue purchasing dollars at the same tempo they have in the past. Those foreign central banks are going to be faced with the uneviablechoice of continuing to support the dollar destined to be devalued andkeep their exports flowing to the U.S. or choosing tounass their dollarpositions slowly and gradually, yet before everyone else does,andtake the risk their remaining dollar holdings will be worth even less. If these foreign governements are smart they will diversify their customer base away from the U.S. consumer and be potentiallyless vulnerable to aworldwideU.S. dollar dump or devaluation. Anyway, I'm starting to get more and more of those 0% credit card offers in the mail for balance transfers and purchases good through January of 2007. I'd say the Bernankehelicopters are not too far off in the distance...wap...wap...wap...wap.

Well, the one thing that is for sure, the more liquidation, the higher the inflation...interest rates will keep going and going and ......:^:^:^

Greenspuds replacement is a rather tiring thought.....what will happen to the stock market when they do announce his replacement....I don't think it will matter who replaces him....we're going :U:U:U....just take alook around you and say, yes yes yes we have a vibrant economy....!!:l:l:l What a joke.....it will be the average working stiff who gets it.....those invested properly will do ok....

well we got ourselves into this mess, you can thank yourselves and your congressmen....its gonna hurt for 60 years....:?

See their take on the replacement...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/17/mark...hair/index.htm



:dude:

will be the average working stiff who gets it.....those invested properly will do ok....

Wanna bet? If What I read is correct, the so called smart money is Bullish while the "dumb money ( that is my crowd)" has been bearish since March. Guess, precisely because of this new read, I feel may be it is time to move to cash. Smart money is often too smart for its own good. But the Poetic justice is that theworking stiff does not have much market exposure. As that song goes "freedom is another word for nothing left to lose"

Will Greenspan leave a mess? I think not. This is his legacy,,,he will want to leave with the economy heading up and interest rate increases done. Any "Geenspeak" in his final few months will be positive going forward....and the stock market will rally...at least until he leaves office.

Ha! As John Mauldin said recently, Hillary is the only person ever to make a quick fortune in commodity futures and then just walk away and never trade again. Must not have been challenging enough for her. Strangely enough,thefinancial marketsstill challenge her friend and fellow inside trader George Soros, whose intellectual capacitydwarfs Hillary's. Just read Soros' The Alchemy of Finance alongside Hillary's It Takes a Village (Idiot) if you need proof.

Anyone who knows anything about the futures markets knowsHillary'swinning streakwasn'tpossible to do...legally.



Birchtree wrote:

How about one of Hillary's buddies from Refco? They did well for her-remember.

I don't think Greenspud will have a choice on how long the interest rates will need to be increased. If you look closely, the money machine will determine this since it determines the inflationary atmosphere we are currently under....M3 is the big power right now and itmay drop the deifcit but we pay in other areas for it....

As they say, you may only squeeze so much out of.....and so forth....its just where you squeeze and how much is the key....

Personally, this economic expansion globally has really destabilized us at home to the point of everyone going broke.......we went too far too fast and nobody thought about the end result.

The key at home will be who can afford to take on the assets here at home as the households that do go under let them go.....stay tuned, its coming your way some day soon....

:dude:

The Technician wrote:

The key at home will be who can afford to take on the assets here at home as the households that do go under let them go.....stay tuned, its coming your way some day soon....

:dude:

Technician, you are exactly correct. Investors are continually'on the hunt' for asset bargainswhile consumers are continually 'on the hunt' forconsumer bargains. We all, as consumers andto one degree or another,should attempt to buy and consume those products which give us the best bang for our buck, but many are out there buying 'things' they don't really need with money, or some semblance of money, that they don't reallyhave.

And this key distinction between investors and consumers is what is NOT captured by by the CPI (Consumer Price Index). If they had an IPI or API (Investors Price Index or Asset Price Index)it would much more accuratelyreflect current inflationary trendsand counterthe current speil from government economists who are saying inflation is low and in control.

Those with the consumerist mindset will soon lose their ass-ets to those who have a healthier appreciation for investor value. The Chinese, as investors, are already unloading dollars to buy assets in Canada, Africa, and South America. It is very ironic that China, considered a communist country,is building relations with other countries through trade and actually taking on attributes of being capitalistic, even if somewhat authoritarian, while the U.S. has taken on a moremilitaristic and destructive approach to swaying world opinion. Has the U.S. and China traded places? And will the U.S. dollar remain the world's reserve currency? Yes and no, respectively.