Thread: Market Talk

Bounce or reversal?

1140, 1220, or 1252?

Inny or outie?

The S&P 500 Index's 3.1% gain for the third quarter was impressive in the face of a generaly negative news background. Since 1950, that index has registered a gain of 3% or more in 25 third quarters, and 19 of them were followed by a net gain in the fourth quarter as well. The gain this time around was only the second time in the last 8 years to occur. This present late summer-early fall corrective phase in the market should be followed by a resumption and extension of its underlying post 2002 cyclical bull market. The weekly stochastic indicator last April was in a decisively oversold position below 20. One more down day should be sufficient.

I think we may have enough oversold improvement in sentiment indicators (Tom will address these issues I'm sure) to be a catalyst for greater caution that would set the stage for a durable new advance in the remainder of 2005 and possibly into 2006.

This is a quote at Yahoo, Market Update:

"Week ending 07-Oct-05: Weekly Recap - Inflation fears rattled the stock market this week. There was no specific data on inflation. Rather, comments from Fed officials about the need to fight inflation led to the conclusion that "where there is smoke, there is fire." The market's reaction to the statements revealed more about market sentiment than about the actual outlook for inflation."

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RE: above charts. The ROC bounced off oversold, at about 1183 (S&P). The question is now momentum to advance or go sideways for a while. The risk is a bull trap. If so, I hope it can be played through.

In MHO the down turn of last week was a Cartel thing!

Rgds :shock: Spaf

Spaf wrote:

RE: above charts. The ROC bounced off oversold, at about 1183 (S&P). The question is now momentum to advance or go sideways for a while. The risk is a bull trap. If so, I hope it can be played through.

In MHO the down turn of last week was a Cartel thing!

Rgds :shock: Spaf

What does ROC mean? What is a Cartel thing?

The energy sector and the financial sectors make up close to 40% of the SPX and both are highly weighted and both are extremely oversold. We are building a nice platform for a rally pretty soon.

Last Week Returns - Sept 30 - Oct 07

G-fund0.09%
F-fund0.00%
C-fund-2.64%
S-fund-3.09%
I-fund-2.07%

Birchtree wrote:

We are building a nice platform for a rally pretty soon.

Well looks like Tokyo is closed for a holiday.

Show-me wrote:

Well looks like Tokyo is closed for a holiday.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuot...t196989_newsml

vicky wrote:

Spaf wrote:

RE: above The ROC ....................

.........................was a Cartel thing!

Rgds :shock: Spaf

What does ROC mean? What is a Cartel thing?

Vicky,

ROC: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...ge_(price).htm

Cartel = Creature from Jekell Island(The Fed. Reserve Board)
Also RE: http://americaondebt.com/

Rgds. Spaf

Spaf wrote:

Vicky,

ROC: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...ge_(price).htm

Cartel = Creature from Jekell Island (The Fed. Reserve Board)
Also RE: http://americaondebt.com/

Rgds. Spaf

thank you

I found this while following through on your links (thought it interesting also)>

Cartel
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

A cartel is a group of producers whose goal it is to fix prices, to limit supply and to limit competition. Cartels are prohibited by antitrust laws in most countries; however, they continue to exist nationally and internationally, formally and informally. Note that a single entity that holds a monopoly by this definition cannot be a cartel, though it may be guilty of abusing said monopoly in other ways. As such, it is inaccurate to describe (for example) Microsoft or AT&T as cartels.
In general, cartels are economically unstable in that there is a great incentive for members to cheat and to sell more than the quotas set by the cartel (see also game theory). This has caused many cartels that attempt to set product prices to be unsuccessful in the long term. However, once a cartel is broken, the incentives to form the cartel return and the cartel may be re-formed. Publicly-known cartels that do not follow this cycle include the De Beers diamond cartel, and by some accounts, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Price fixing is often practiced internationally. When the agreement to control price is sanctioned by a multilateral treaty or protected by national sovereignty, no antitrust actions may be initiated. Examples of such price fixing include oil whose price is controlled by OPEC. Also international airline tickets have prices fixed by agreement with the IATA, a practice for which there is a specific exception in antitrust law.

International price fixing by private entities can be prosecuted under the antitrust laws of most countries. Examples of prosecuted international cartels are lysine, citric acid, graphite electrodes, and bulk vitamins. (source: http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=5488&ftype=.pdf)

De Beers has long controlled diamond production and prices from its stronghold in South Africa. Recently they have been implicated in sectarian violence in several African countries, including Sierra Leone and Cote d'Ivoire. As its name suggests, OPEC is organised by sovereign states. It cannot be held to antitrust enforcement in other jurisdictions by virtue of the doctrine of state immunity under public international law. However, members of the group do frequently break rank to increase production quotas. De Beers has faced strong criticism recently (see articles on blood diamonds), and may be expected to face competition from synthetic diamonds in the next few years.




OPEC: widely viewed in the West as an influential and powerful cartel
Many trade organizations, especially in industries dominated by only a few major companies, have been accused of being fronts for cartels:


People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776
Exactly the same applies to trade unions, which usually act like cartels with similar benefits and drawbacks.

An example of a new international cartel is the one created by the members of the Asian Racing Federation and documented in the Good Neighbour Policy signed on September 1, 2003.

Collusion


[*]Content cartel [*]Drug cartel [*]Phoebus cartel [*]Zaibatsu[/list]International Cartel History Site
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