Market Talk

**teknobucks** · 09-25-2005, 01:00 AM

great post off tt.............

From my perch here in the Pacific, it has seemed to me that the market has been (justifiably) absolutely obsessed with primarily two events, and to a lesser extent a third, for nearly a month now. We all know what they are -- Katrina, Rita, and to a lesser extend, the Fed.

These are now all behind us now. There will be other things that obsess the market, as always, but in all likelihood, to nowhere near this extreme level.

After (presumably) an initial "relief rally" on Monday, the markets "true colors" should begin to emerge in coming days and weeks.

Expectations here seem (to me) polarized to an extent I can't remember seeing at any time in the past. Many are outright bearish; many others are outright bullish. Very little middle ground, as I read it.

But the market will do what it will do no matter what we expect.

It's gonna be interesting.

**teknobucks** · 09-25-2005, 01:05 AM

and another.....posting these here since i have absolutely no clue what is about to occur...LOL

************************************************** ******************

After nauseatingly arguing the bullish case here the whole of last week, amidst all the gloom and doom talk, i will give it a rest now. SPX barely made a 30 point move and it felt like almost like the July 2002 bottom, when SPX had fallen 300+ points.

The MCOs are still below zero and the summation index is still pointed down. So bears are still in control. We don't have momentum divergences on the daily. So the ideal scenario would be here for a small rally on Monday and then a retest of the recent lows to put in the necessary positive divergences on the daily.

But will the ideal play out ? When the market comes out of such a deep oversold condition, many times we don't get a divergent bottom. Instead the market just puts in a V bottom instead of a W bottom and takes off. Look at the Jan 24 bottom this year, which is a case in point. Also we had 5 consecutive days of P/C ratios above .90 and 3 days out of which were above 1. Given that both sentiment and momentum were extreme relative to the price move, a V bottom is not out of question.

**teknobucks** · 09-25-2005, 01:17 AM

have no idea at all how to be properly positioned right now....almost everyone including the bears are expecting a monday rally is virtually guaranteed.

since rita was such a dud/letdown for even those reporters onfox news....the rallying bears may be right.....LOL

tekno

sitting this one out.....all G

next attraction

: soon we will be trading Avian Flu with infected figures causing a country's currency to rise or fall.

**Birchtree** · 09-25-2005, 01:42 AM

Kennedy Gammage says we are heading for a crash - I can take it - done it before.

Sentiment indicators have remained mixed, but the continued high level of the 25-day average CBOE put/call ratio (97%) suggests that the market is probably not vulnerable to a severe phase of weakness at this point. In fact, the more-likely course of events is that it will rise far enough in coming months to discourage such aggressive put activity. If that were to cause the ratio to fall to below 75% on ti's 25-day average, the market would lose its one strong near term sentiment indicator "prop" and would likely become vulnerable to a more-serious decline than the relatively shallow ones of recent months. I'm staying 100% long the C fund.

Dennis-perma bull #2

**Rolo** · 09-26-2005, 12:45 PM

teknobucks wrote:

So the ideal scenario would be here for a small rally on Monday and then a retest of the recent lows to put in the necessary positive divergences on the daily.

C'mon pennant-wedge-thingie!

**teknobucks** · 09-26-2005, 01:21 PM

Rolo wrote:

teknobucks wrote:

So the ideal scenario would be here for a small rally on Monday and then a retest of the recent lows to put in the necessary positive divergences on the daily.

C'mon pennant-wedge-thingie!

u r right i'm a buyer

**Rolo** · 09-27-2005, 11:56 AM

teknobucks wrote:

u r right i'm a buyer

You're that certain it will form/breakout, or don't mind the risk? I was going to wait until it broke out of the wedge, but is it worth it?

**teknobucks** · 09-27-2005, 08:42 PM

Rolo wrote:

teknobucks wrote:

u r right i'm a buyer

You're that certain it will form/breakout, or don't mind the risk? I was going to wait until it broke out of the wedge, but is it worth it?

plan to bridge the $$$ in over the next couples of weeks to a heavy in I and C position....to reduce my chances of jumping into a 3-5% haircut.

eoy rally still very possible

.

me thinks we are within 10 feet of the boottom....time to hit the power inflater bro.

plus they say only monkeys pickbottoms....LOL