Thread: Market Talk

Summary of Last Week

Week after Labor Day - 2005
F-fund-0.37%
C-fund1.98%
S-fund1.91%
I-fund1.02%


Week after Labor Day - 2004
F-fund0.59%
C-fund0.93%
S-fund1.50%
I-fund1.75%


Week after Labor Day - 2003
F-fund0.62%
C-fund1.33%
S-fund1.62%
I-fund2.80%

==================================
Coming week

2nd Week after Labor Day - 2004
F-fund0.19%
C-fund0.42%
S-fund0.86%
I-fund-0.07%

2nd Week after Labor Day - 2003
F-fund0.51%
C-fund-0.19%
S-fund-0.44%
I-fund0.54%

Thanks for that info El, but I would not base future performance on past results for these reasons:

1) the bull market run started in Mar-April 2003 and most of the easy gains have already been made.

2) gasoline prices are much, much higher now than in 2003

3) interest rates are higher now than in 2003

Investors Optimistic Despite Problems



Sept 11, 2005

(AP) Stock investors are feeling bullish these days, shrugging off so far the effects of $3-per-gallon gasoline and the short-term economic impact of Hurricane Katrina's devastation.

That's due in part because crude oil prices have dropped below their pre-Katrina levels as more Gulf Coast production and refining capacity is restored. Also, in a rare burst of long-term thinking, investors also anticipate that a reconstruction boom may help boost economic growth in 2006.

And finally, there's the belief — or perhaps just a hope — that Federal Reserve policy-makers won't raise interest rates another quarter percentage point when the Federal Open Markets Committee meets Tuesday, Sept. 20. The argument for pausing is that it's better to wait and gauge the impact of the storm's shock to the economy before making borrowing more expensive for the reconstruction effort.

It's a nice theory. But is it something to gamble on?

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is ready to quit Jan. 31, 2006, when his term expires. It's widely expected that he will want to give his successor leeway to cut rates meaningfully if the economy softens after his departure. That bodes for continuing rate hikes. In addition, Sept. 20 may be too soon to fully understand Katrina's impact. As such, the Fed may err on the side of containing inflation, especially as energy costs soar, and keep the rate hikes coming.

Furthermore, anyone looking for a year-end rally, such as the postelection surge in stocks last year, could be disappointed. Yes, $63 per barrel of oil prices is better for most than $70 oil. But it's still far above last year's $40 price and there's no election to quickly and decisively provide clarity and guidance for the nation's future.

High gasoline and heating oil prices will curtail consumer spending going into the critical holiday shopping season. A substantial swath of the population will remain displaced for months. And while reconstruction will certainly generate economic activity, is it enough to replace what was already going on in the region to begin with?

Once the euphoria of falling crude futures wanes on Wall Street, the hard questions will remain, and could weigh on stocks in the weeks ahead — especially if the Fed goes ahead with another rate hike. This may not be a cause for a sell-off, but may not be enough to justify a buying spree.

For now, however, falling oil prices were enough to spur the stock market to a week of solid gains. The Dow Jones industrial average surged 2.21 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 1.93 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index climbed 1.61 percent.

ECONOMIC DATA

Wall Street's most trusted gauges of inflation, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, will be released in the week ahead, and will almost certainly move the market coming so soon before the Fed's meeting.

The Labor Department's PPI index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, was expected to rise 0.7 percent in August, down from a 1 percent jump in July, when it's released Tuesday. "Core" PPI, with fuel and food costs removed, was expected to climb just 0.1 percent, compared to July's 0.4 percent rise.

On Thursday, the Labor Department will release the CPI, which is expected to climb 0.5 percent, level with July's 0.5 percent gain. Core CPI, again with costly energy and food costs removed, was expected to post an 0.2 percent gain, up from a 0.1 percent rise in July.

Should either of these indexes move higher than expected, it would raise the specter of inflation and higher interest rates. And that would certainly push stocks lower.



Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press

Greg, wondered where you had gone off to. Re-invention is good for the soul.

Skypilot,

Personally I don't care who he is - I just appreciate the fact that he makes a worthwhile contribution. We are all mostly involved in learning as much financial information as possible - perhaps he will lead us out of the darkness into the light of the bull market. Seriously though, I thought the personality was cool with a certain edge to it - no glamor, just up front. And a very cautious investor - he was my very own secret contrary indicator - hope his investing style hasn't changed.

Dennis

Wow, the Nikkei is up 1.37% and the market just opened15 minutes ago.

Wonder where it will be when it closes?

Our futures are up too. Still 40/60 si.

Coolhand,

I certainly would not want a short squeeze put on me - they have been holding back thinking this move is not real. We are still at historic record short levels - if they decide to cover their positions there will be some big momentum up days - they all can't possibly get out at once - this may take months. The brutality will be absolutely fun to observe - like watching a wrestling match. I'm still waiting for lift off. See ya

Dennis

Things looking good in Asia; besides this the yen is appreciating against the dollar. Word is it will be a 105 =$1 by the end of the year; it is approximately 109 now.

I would hold off buying US Treasury debt myself if I could get more for less in a matter of a few months.

Asian Stocks Advance as Japan Rises on Koizumi Win; Kospi Gains

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks gained, with Japan's benchmarks climbing to the highest in more than four years, after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi won a landslide election victory.

Banks including Mizuho Financial Group Inc. led gains on expectations Koizumi will be able to push ahead with plans to cut debt and bolster growth in the world's second-largest economy by selling state assets. A report showed the economy expanded in the second quarter at three times the pace the government estimated.

Koizumi is ``going to be more aggressive on change,'' said David Herro, who runs the $5.7 billion Oakmark International Fund in Chicago. ``The fact that growth is coming on will take pressure off the U.S. and that will not only be good for Pacific-Rim growth, but for the global economy.''

Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which makes PlayStation Portables for Sony Corp., and Singapore's CapitaLand Ltd., which has two property funds in Japan, advanced.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 1,000 companies, rose 0.8 percent to 109.22, the highest since September 2000, at 6:50 p.m. in Tokyo. South Korea's Kospi index closed at a record high for a fourth day. Indexes in the Philippines and New Zealand fell, and gained elsewhere in the region. China was little changed.

Majority Rules

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 1.6 percent to 12,896.43, its biggest gain since Aug. 10. The Topix index added 1.3 percent. The benchmarks closed at the highest since June 2001.

Industry measures tracking banks, property companies and insurers were the three best performers among the 33 Topix industry groups after Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner won 68 percent of seats in the lower house.

Mizuho, Japan's largest bank by assets, climbed 4.4 percent to 640,000 yen. Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc., the second biggest, added 2.7 percent to 1.15 million yen. Millea Holdings Inc., the biggest insurance firm, climbed 3.8 percent to 1.65 million yen.

Koizumi called for elections after legislators from his own party voted against his plan to sell Japan Post, the world's largest savings bank with 350 trillion yen ($3.2 trillion) in assets. Banks would gain if deposits and insurance contracts individuals hold at Japan Post were shifted to their accounts.

`Overwhelming'

``An election victory that is so overwhelming will give Koizumi a mandate, not just to privatize the postal system, but a general mandate for reform,'' Brent Lynn, who runs the $2.2 billion Janus Overseas Fund at Janus Capital Group Inc. in Denver, said in a telephone interview from Hong Kong. ``It's a spectacular result.''

Overseas investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks for the past 12 weeks, according to the Ministry of Finance.

A government report before the market opened showed the economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter, three times as much as its initial estimate and more than all 18 economists had expected in a Bloomberg News survey.

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan's biggest developer, added 3.5 percent to 1,598 yen. Land prices in Tokyo rose last year for the first time since 1992.

Japan Effect

CLSA Ltd.'s Christopher Wood, the top-ranked Asian equity strategist in Institutional Investor's latest survey, recommended investors buy Japanese stocks such as Mizuho and Mitsubishi Estate Co. that will benefit from the nation's economic growth.

John Vail, chief strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s brokerage unit in Tokyo, raised the year-end estimate for the Topix by 5.9 percent to 1350 in an e-mailed note to clients today.

In Taiwan, the Taiex index gained 0.8 percent, while Singapore's Straits Times Index climbed 1 percent.

Hon Hai Precision, Taiwan's largest electronics company, rose 2.6 percent to NT$156. Quanta Computer Inc., which counts Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. among its customers, added 3.2 percent to NT$55.20.

Taiwan's exports to Japan in the past 12 months rose 8.5 percent to $13.9 billion from the same period a year ago. In the period, Japan accounted for 7.6 percent of the island's exports.

CapitaLand, Southeast Asia's top developer, rose 1.7 percent to S$3.02. The company has said it may tie up with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. or a retailer in Japan to expand in the country.

South Korea

``Because Japan is the largest economy in Asia, any positives pushing its markets higher are also good for the rest of the region,'' said Choi Chang Hoon, who helps manage $770 million at Woori Asset Management Co. in Seoul.

The Kospi advanced 0.5 percent to 1158.36, the fourth record in as many days. On Sept. 7, the index surpassed a record closing high that stood for almost 11 years.

Samsung Securities Co. led gains by brokerages on expectations earnings will climb as trading increases. Shares valued at an average 3 trillion won ($3 billion) have changed hands daily in the past three months. That's 24 percent more than the daily average in the first six months of the year.

Samsung Securities, South Korea's largest brokerage by market value, jumped 6.4 percent to 40,700 won.

Daewoo Securities Co., the second largest, rose 5.8 percent to 12,750 won. The company said on Sept. 10 its profit in August more than doubled to 30 billion won from a year ago.

Elsewhere, Japan's TIS Inc., which provides system construction and data processing services, slumped 14 percent to 2,605 yen, the biggest drop in almost 12 years. The company slashed its half-year profit forecast by 44 percent and three analysts lowered their recommendations on the stock.

The Kingdom of TSP

Oil Data and charts

Whats oil doing? The oil world in a nutshell!

http://stockcharts.com/symsearch?oil

What is light crude doing? Scroll down to $WTIC.

Charts are on the left side of the page.


Rgds! Spaf

The Kingdom of TSP

More information on energy

This site is a............Well you will just have to see it!

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

It's from the Energy Information Administration

Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government! o

Rgds Spaf