Thread: Market Talk

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/r...age_id=7260329

With adjustable rates poised for a hike.

Consumers maxed out, and not many places left to borrow from.

Housing starts are poised for a slow down and when that happens all sectors will feel a pinch to include labor.

Oil remains high.

Individual saving accounts are at an all time historic low.

Highs were reached in almost all indexes.

I keep hearing the pundits declaring that the economy is great and moving upward.

Unless Indians are using the contracting out dollars to stimulate the US economy I just don’t see our economy lurching forward for any meaningful length of time.

I went 100% G on 8-1-05 and plan to stay there for a while until this mess all sorts itself out.

Trying to figure this stuff out is like having another full time job.





Hope this didn't double post

Jovarn,

Net exports and business capital spending will start to do more of the heavy lifting for the economy - they are now just starting to contribute.

There is a ton of information to digest just to find out if you are on the correct side of the street - bearish or bullish. Dollar cost averaging helps take out some of the work. Automatic pilot is the way to fly - but the G fund takes the long way around to arrive at any destination.

JOVARN,

You aren't alone! In my area I look around an the only jobs I see advertised are "service sector" jobs. Nursing, CNA, restaurant, truckers, distribution, warehouse, and maintenance. I do see a few manufacturing jobs but most of those are service or white collar. Once every two or three weeks I hear of a new manufacture shutting down or planning to shut down and move off shore. In this region we have many empty retail and manufacturing buildings.

Wal-mart, Lowes, and Home Depot killed all of the small retail and lumber stores. The local mall is hurting. “Dollar Stores� are the only new stores that can seem to make it. Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Family Dollar, Big Lots, ect. have all opened new stores in one town of 50,000. Pier One, Kohl's, and some other retail stores are being built also. Bar’s and bank’s are a dime a dozen. No new “skilled labor job� are moving into this same town of 50,000. Local hospitals have been expanding though.

This fall will be sad for local farmers. We have had two small rain showers this whole summer. Look at a ear of corn in the field 50 feet from my home and it was half the length and had the smallest kernels of corn on it I have ever seen. Fields are already turned brown or in the process. Very, very bad!

I live in a rural are and used propane to heat my home. I now use wood. Those of us that can afford it pre-contract our propane for the winter. Two years ago .95 cent per gallon. This year $1.35 plus per gallon. During peak usage I have seen spot price over $2.00. Poor people don’t stand a chance with those prices. They don't have the money to contract and they can’t afford the price during the winter.

I certainly can not give a professional explanation for what is driving the market but I will try to ride the trend while being cautious. My fear is that all the negative things will catch up with us when we are looking away. My unprofessional opinion is that corporate profits are high because they are lowering labor costs and the masses are spending what they don’t have or won’t have when the realize their jobs are in another country. What until the big three auto makers take away all of the incentives! They are trying to very hard to keep sales up and are using more and more desperate tactics to do so. At some point I think they will have to abandon all of their incentives.

Just a few of the concerns and thoughts floating around in my head. I haven't even touch the surface.

My other worries are U. S. debt, taxes, health care, airline’s, aircraft manufacturing, energy, storm season, consumer debt, social security reform, postal reform, labor unions, corporate corruption, corporations defaulting on retirement payment, CHINA, MEXICO, NAFTA, CAFTA, EU, terrorism, education,........................................ .......

I’m a sick puppy! Good luck all!

Thank you Spaf, teknobucks, JOVARN, Birchtree, Show-me for your excellent commentary providing perspective on the economy and markets.

I concur with WW. Thanks people for an intelligent debate and no sniping. A lot of info to consider. Yes, I am very bullish on the economy for the later part of this year even with only 16 months to retire.

I also practice buying on the dips and dollar cost investing with the TSP and my private portfolio.

Let everyone invest they way they like and there is no need to bash anyone for a particular opinion but read and provide a logical and precise rebuttal. We all will get a lot more out of it.

Show-me,

Here is an idea to help you make extra money. Have you ever considered bootleging those 3 gallon toilets into this country from Canada. The Canadians are letting them flow through with no restrictions. Probably helping their trade deficit with us.

Our economy seems to be moving toward a service economy. Maybe at some point in the near future we will become a tourist mecca for the middle class Chinese that are working our exported jobs. Can you imagine the potential opportunities. Presently they are allowed to go to Hong Kong with no currency limitations - they will want to discover America - and all that is American. Tell your kids to start learning to study Chinese and Russian languages - they will be on their way.

Dennis

The S&P index will have some drops along the way before finishing the year at 1300. I still see a drop to the 1186 support level.

It wasn't that long ago where the S&P average was hovering around it's 200 day moving average; now it is beyond that. There will be volatility, and I suppose that is what dollar cost averaging is all about.

When the S&P index was at its 200 day moving average it told me two things: dollar cost averaging improves returns and when the index breaks out and above that 200 day moving average it is the best time to sell and wait for the inevitable next dip.

I'm not a good micro-manager; Brinker isn't either. If he says there is good sailing ahead for the next few months I will ride out the storms that will come between now and then and dollar cost average.

Still I have a balanced position: 75% equities, 25% fixed income.

housing

http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=39373

JOVARN wrote:

With adjustable rates poised for a hike.

Consumers maxed out, and not many places left to borrow from.

Housing starts are poised for a slow down and when that happens all sectors will feel a pinch to include labor.

Oil remains high.

Individual saving accounts are at an all time historic low.

Highs were reached in almost all indexes.

I keep hearing the pundits declaring that the economy is great and moving upward.

Unless Indians are using the contracting out dollars to stimulate the US economy I just don’t see our economy lurching forward for any meaningful length of time.

I went 100% G on 8-1-05 and plan to stay there for a while until this mess all sorts itself out.

Trying to figure this stuff out is like having another full time job.





Hope this didn't double post

Found this hard to believe. They started a 1 MONTH- MONTH adjustable ARM product. Started three months ago at 1%. They readjusted on Friday to 1.825%. Basically means your mortgage interest just about doubled in three months.

This was for people with really, really bad credit and suspect income. 18% of new mortgages are 1 month adjustable arms. :shock:

:shock:

Show-me wrote:

JOVARN,

You aren't alone! In my area I look around an the only jobs I see advertised are "service sector" jobs. Nursing, CNA, restaurant, truckers, distribution, warehouse, and maintenance. I do see a few manufacturing jobs but most of those are service or white collar. Once every two or three weeks I hear of a new manufacture shutting down or planning to shut down and move off shore. In this region we have many empty retail and manufacturing buildings.

Wal-mart, Lowes, and Home Depot killed all of the small retail and lumber stores. The local mall is hurting. “Dollar Stores� are the only new stores that can seem to make it. Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Family Dollar, Big Lots, ect. have all opened new stores in one town of 50,000. Pier One, Kohl's, and some other retail stores are being built also. Bar’s and bank’s are a dime a dozen. No new “skilled labor job� are moving into this same town of 50,000. Local hospitals have been expanding though.

This fall will be sad for local farmers. We have had two small rain showers this whole summer. Look at a ear of corn in the field 50 feet from my home and it was half the length and had the smallest kernels of corn on it I have ever seen. Fields are already turned brown or in the process. Very, very bad!

I live in a rural are and used propane to heat my home. I now use wood. Those of us that can afford it pre-contract our propane for the winter. Two years ago .95 cent per gallon. This year $1.35 plus per gallon. During peak usage I have seen spot price over $2.00. Poor people don’t stand a chance with those prices. They don't have the money to contract and they can’t afford the price during the winter.

I certainly can not give a professional explanation for what is driving the market but I will try to ride the trend while being cautious. My fear is that all the negative things will catch up with us when we are looking away. My unprofessional opinion is that corporate profits are high because they are lowering labor costs and the masses are spending what they don’t have or won’t have when the realize their jobs are in another country. What until the big three auto makers take away all of the incentives! They are trying to very hard to keep sales up and are using more and more desperate tactics to do so. At some point I think they will have to abandon all of their incentives.

Just a few of the concerns and thoughts floating around in my head. I haven't even touch the surface.

My other worries are U. S. debt, taxes, health care, airline’s, aircraft manufacturing, energy, storm season, consumer debt, social security reform, postal reform, labor unions, corporate corruption, corporations defaulting on retirement payment, CHINA, MEXICO, NAFTA, CAFTA, EU, terrorism, education,........................................ .......

I’m a sick puppy! Good luck all!

I went to a Dollar Store when I was in the states last - about five months ago. Everything was over a dollar. :shock: I thought I was going to get some bargains.

Funny China is outsourcing jobs to India now for cheap labor. Mexico is also outsourcing to India.

Empires end when they outsource their manufactoring base. Last example - UK. :^