Thread: The housing wrench

Well don't forget the lack of payroll increases that keep future markets going, interest costs, in general coporate operating costs, then there is overseas competition, not counting current liablities with business and individuals....

Don't get me wrong, I love the market going up, wish I could have more of a handle on it.....sooner or later I will, then moving in and out of the markets will be the game, not just get in and sit until maybe a change in my mood....maximum return....that is what I'm aiming for....

what I learned the other day told me I should have been in the market for the recent past.....it was a biggy lesson.....but now it tells me I should be exiting....so should you.....

Have you learned anything lately that makes you a better market timer.....???:^

:dude:

The Technician wrote:

Have you learned anything lately that makes you a better market timer.....???:^

:dude:

Na can't time it, but can take a position with safeguards:

Best indicators I like are the CMF, RSI, MACD, Slow STO, and the ROC.
Best safeguards: Monitor Nymex, transports, basic economic fundamentals and establish trailing stops.

Play TSP conservatively, mainly because of the 1-2 day transfer lag, and limited funds.
Play ST more aggressively, because of instant trade, and a pot full of ETF funds.

Zat good enuf! Spaf

From Mish Blog site:

Also note that close to 70% of the people own their own home even though there are tens of thousands of unoccupied condominiums with 10 years worth of supply coming on in Florida in the next two years alone.

:shock:10 years of supply in two years.

Supply/demand = less demand = buyers market = not sells market.

:^ Hoping from one bubble to the next. Home equity gain = paper gain of tech funds.

If you do not take the gain you do not get it.

But believe what you want to believe.

Bubbles are only in our bathtubs. BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Snort, Snort, I obviously missed a good day of talk on TSPtalk today.

Technobucks - remember not to stand too close - you could end up with wet shoes again. Perhaps you can suggest to DMA that he chase the I find along with Nnuut.

Pyriel, I will not run from a headfake - no reason to abandon my positions for a few weeks - just ride through and continue to dollar cost average. I wouldn't really preserve that much profit - just as soon let it free float. I'm not looking for any serious bear phase only a continuation of the consolidation. It will be interesting to see how many participants hold their lines - I'd have to see more than 1000 Dow points slip away before I would even consider the old cut and run. I don't think you will see sp500 drop below 1200 for the rest of this year. Take a look at the corrections the occured in 2003 - there were some but none with any depth. Now look at the 1995 graph of the S&P - that is what may be on the horizon.

Refer to 1972 chart. :^

Rising interest rates and crude.

:P 2003 was the artifically stimulus of retroactive div tax cuts and emergency rates.



Run up late 2004 was the sure thing private accounts.

The tricks are getting stale.

Down she goes. :^

I assume you no longer care for the intensity of the I fund. She has been running hard lately - if the dollar is reversing course - it seems like a for sure play. Take a spin and provide us with a report.

By the way, I agree with most of your comments on the real estate and housing sector. When trouble strikes perhaps a lot of that money will flow into equities.

Think a lot of that money will flow into rental properties.

I am buying apartment REITs and public foreclosure companies.

Turn off to me for the I fund is the tricky way they figure out the NAV at the end of the day.

Index can be up .842 for the day and you are down .02.

Index down .334 and you can be up .08.

Investing is hard enough without playing those games too.

IMHO.

Good day Birch. Off to watch a movie and dinner.

Be safe and all that jazz.

I see small ups and downs with modest gains some weeks more or less then others. I see my co-workers bowering from their TSP. 26% of all mortgages are adjustable rate or interest only. Wage increases are all but stagnant. Not all but most have borrowed against their home to go on shopping sprees. People are strapped, living on borrowed money secured by their home and credit cards. When mortgage rates go up the market will go down that’s for certain. The only thing driving this economy is people borrowing against their home for cars, home improvements, boats and of course real-estate. Then there is the price of oil to think about.

I see no reason to be Bullish especially in August. Mortgage rates will be the guillotine that cuts the bulls head off. Those that know when the ax will fall will be safe from the blood bath.

My guess is as good as anyone elses.

Have a nice weekend

Jo

Jovarn,

At least you speak your mind. You have to remember though that the market is a discounting mechanism for the future and is omnipotent. Just because you don't see a valuable reason to be bullish - doesn't mean the market is blind. That is what makes a market - but I'd rather keep my head. But I will see you at higher prices - good to have you on board TSPtalk. When the train leaves the station just run a little faster to catch up - but there is plenty of time - I think.

Dennis - renegade contrarian bull.

Shhhhhhhhhh got a secret.

The ARMs are getting ready to readjust.

Readjust up - wonder where those ARM people are going to come up with a extra couple $100s to make their new higher mortgage interest payment.

:PGood thing Congress rushed those new bankrupcy rules through. LOL