Thread: Tom, clarification request

GTO1970 wrote:

14 May 2004 Market comments

Am I trying to get too cute again? Too greedy? There are no guarantees of course, but if someone guaranteed you a gain 90 days from now (as the above stats hint), would you mess around and risk that gain in an attempt to increase it? It's a tough call in a tough market environment.

Sure GTO. The data showed that in the past 40 years, 34 of the 34 times we hit breadth extremes we are seeing now the marketwas up nicely 90 days later. My question is should would youjust get in and take that hypothetical gain, or should you continue to play around (buying and selling) trying to avoid another push down, or sell the next rally etc.

Does that make more sense?

Thanks,
Tom

I guess I dont understand about the markets being up nicely for the the last 90 days

what I'm seeing is markets (TSP) are all down average 4.00% and until we get support (Positive) or a well defined directionUP we are going to continue seeing up and down days maybe even lower yet to come lows in the near future!

The best way I can discribe it isthe markets right noware like a diesel engine with the governor out of adjustment, the governor senses low rpms and sends more fuel to the injectors and theengine rpms speed up to the point where the governor now senses overspeed rpmsand cut fuel flow to the injectorsbring rpms down to the point where the engine is now in underspeed condition and kepts overcorrecting itselfuntil that Gap is adjusted out, The cycle continues and is call Rolling and Hunting.

GTO

I guess I dont understand about the markets being up nicely for the the last 90 days

Not the last 90 days, in the next 90 days.