Thread: Market Talk

top perhaps today...???:shock:

Hey Birch.....gotta hand it to you for bravery, I can't be brave like you since I haven't been in indexs very long....but.....I haven't been sitting on my laurels .....I've been analyzing away this morning....you see, I've haven't been satisfied with the market slide dates of mine lately.....I thought Sept-Oct would be a possibility, then maybe Dec.....but its been hard to tell....now I am more confident of a possiblity in Sept.

Looking at the current situation looks like we are currently missing an index correction, we should've hit 1183on the S&P here lately........last time I saw this the market started to drop, in about amonth, 20%......as a matter of my 1183 support line I mentioned yesterday, I fear we will drop below it......those numbers could be in and around the range 1050.....

Currently, I believe we will continue to go up, maybe even get to 1255.......but as the days go by in Aug....I fear we will get closer to a drop, Sept looks to bethe start of the downslide.....

So, good going Birch....maybe get out or go short in Sept....

:dude:

Sorry, but I have no place else to go - can't get out or go short. Just riding on the horns of this bull market. Thanks for your input. I am aware of the 4 year cycles, and I'm concerned about what I think is speculative chasing after the small-cap momentum.

But on the pluse side the sp500 has broken from a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a distinctly bullish pattern, and is notable in part because the S&P formed a similar pattern before breaking out last November. I know my sending out a warning might sound strange regarding the pretty girl S fund, but then again I am a contrarian bull by nature. I feel safer with my wall flower - she's a keeper.

Birch wrote

"the sp500 has broken from a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a distinctly bullish pattern, and is notable in part because the S&P formed a similar pattern before breaking out last November"

Its also a pattern of an overbought condition.....expect this right before a fall.....

My decision of a fall is more than a pattern,the economy news looks great, but is it really that great???? Personally, from who I talk with, it su%#s! Every company is making alot of money, with high prices and lower wages....even though the wage data looks better, its not enough....

You can only squeeze so much out.....close your eyes and look ahead at the company data for the next year or so....tell me .....what do you see????

:^

Spaf is back - put out the word. I can finally stop with that Brenda Lee song in my head "All alone am I ever since your goodby". I'm relieved - wanna lend me what you are keeping in reserve - I have just the place for the money. I can either spend it on my wall flower or buy oats and grains. Hitting targets today is like using a shotgun - can't miss.

CAFTA is signed by Bush...not sure, but I think we will lose here...

Next is a free trade agreement with countries in Asia and Middle East.....they're coming already in the works....sooner or later we won't be working at all, just buying with our savings.....and then what......maybe housing prices are gonna drop like a brick just as soon as they figure out that the young and restless don't have a decent income....:h

I heard there is new job training available.....flipping burgers at McDonald's...:l

Sorry W....I think you and your constituents are taking us too far too fast.....its gonna wreck our way of life, definitely unstable :@.....(of course they may not care:zz).

:U

I fear creeping globalizaton is a fact. Either we participate or we get let behind in isolation. A useful analogy might be Apple and Microsoft, us taking the part of Apple, and maintaining proprietary status. We have enjoyed the boundaries of oceans and luxeries of education, superior firepower, vast natural resources and imported wealth. Many of these advantages are now being compromised, and we are being forced to compete, wether we want to or not. At least with these FTA's we get to be in the game...

Birchtree wrote:

Spaf is back - put out the word. I can finally stop with that Brenda Lee song in my head "All alone am I ever since your goodby". I'm relieved - wanna lend me what you are keeping in reserve - I have just the place for the money. I can either spend it on my wall flower or buy oats and grains. Hitting targets today is like using a shotgun - can't miss.

I had my bass boat all picked out! Now she wants a pontoon boat! Thats just a bigger motor and more gas! Better kick the TSP out of the hanger!

I didn't know that Birch could sing?

Rgds Spaf

Oil Markers

Was using oil markers of <55=Ok, 55-60=worry, and >60=critical. However, these numbers don't seem to be realistic any more.

Oil is nearing $62 a bucket, and the market is humming right along.

Any thoughts?

Rgds Spaf

I just made an analysis on the past data and I don't like what I see on Aug 7 (8th for the market)....this coming week.....I figured Aug 1 would be a breaking day....but this may be the one I've been looking for in Sept Oct.......

Be very cautious...protect and then lets see what happens.....

The Technician wrote:

I just made an analysis on the past data and I don't like what I see on Aug 7 (8th for the market)....this coming week.....I figured Aug 1 would be a breaking day....but this may be the one I've been looking for in Sept Oct.......

Be very cautious...protect and then lets see what happens.....

Tech, what did you see that you didn't like?