Market Talk

**Birchtree** · 07-26-2005, 02:18 AM

dennypup,

Seems you just can't get a straight answer - if you were doing a responsible dollar cost averaging with your contributions half your problem would be solved. The current situation is that the train is leaving the station and coach class is nearing its normal capacity. If you really want in you'll have to pay up to play. The longer you wait the more it will cost - and then the bull will try and buck you off the ride. In the first year of the presidential cycle the last 5 trading days of July have been up 70% of the time. Today was probably the only down day you'll get this week. We are on a short term Dow Theory Buy Signal that was generated on 7/20/05. We may not get a good down side movement for many months - although I think the bodacious S fund may actually trend sideways for awhile. That may be an opportunity.

Dennis

**grandma** · 07-26-2005, 03:08 AM

teknobucks wrote:

hope that's not that patron tequilla...lmao

tekno

I did na' no te- kill-ya came in kegs!

**Spaf** · 07-26-2005, 04:15 AM

dp,

At the home page of TSPTalk is a reference (linK) to http://www.barchart.com This is a reputable listing of stocks and what they are doing

As of today, and I repeat today. IVV=C=88% buy, IJR=S=80% buy, AGG=F=40% sell, and EFA=I=64% buy.

Agree with Dennis, U are buying high (not good). When a correction will come is undeterminable. We could be in a secondary movement right now.

Oil and terrorism are the wild cards!

For current trend go to http://http://www.stockcharts.com and check the S&P 500 ($SPX). On the daily chart use a moving average of 10 days. That will give you a fast trend.

Also monitor the DJTA (transportations) ($TRAN). If motors are not being transported to GM, they ain't gonna be making no cars.

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/is a good site for checking the economy and fundamentals.

Don't feel U are getting ignored about "advice". We can't! We are not financial advisors licensed and regulated by the SEC, as far as I know. It's up to U! We talk and Yak, and try to help each other,,,and learn. Have a good one!

Rgds

Spaf

**Mike** · 07-26-2005, 10:40 AM

dennypup wrote:

lol! I realize that, I was just wondering what some considered a healthly pull back point and why. I'd really like to put some back in but I don't want to buy the top as y'all say!

~1190 on the S&P has held up. That's about a 4% drop from where the market topped out at yesterday (before finishing lower at the end of the session). That would probably be good enough to get the various indicators back into a healthy range.

August and September are horrid months historically, and one would be wise to be defensive during them - particularly when we are likely overbought right now. I'm not moving anything into equities 'til October. In the meantime, I'll just stand pat with 50G / 50F - I haven't netted anything on the F fund yet, but if the equities markets are going to drop, the F fund will *probably* rise a bit as it tends to go contrary to the C.

The I fund might be worth a shot at some point here - assuming the dollar tops out and then drops back to its support line. I don't know if that's going to happen anytime soon, though.

**The_Technician** · 07-26-2005, 11:58 AM

Yesterdays interesting comment on report.....

"Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners nearly two to one on volume of 1 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by three to two on volume of 1.21 billion shares. "

Nasty day coming????

So whats up????

Wasn't around much for the last couple of days....wifes uncle died in a car wreck....he was driving a Corolla....the other two drivers were driving large SUV, and a Chevy Truck....story is SUV killed him....even though unclecrossed the centerline....poor SUV's they get blamed for everything....seems like the SUV drivers always get off!!!

:dude:

**dennypup** · 07-26-2005, 12:48 PM

Thanks folks, good info along with Tom's daily remarks, I appreciate it.

**The_Technician** · 07-26-2005, 01:41 PM

Looking for a 1227 level break....if broken, we could see anywhere from 1205's to 1180's....under thecurrent situation, I'd look for the 1180's....of course I've been expecting a good drop for a while.....so I could be biased....

:^

**The_Technician** · 07-26-2005, 03:08 PM

Another good article on dollar bonds and the Chinese Yaun yawnnn...didn't I say something about the yaun revaluation not being much of a hit last week......????

The market has no room for decent growth....therefore we are in the doldrums until the share holders trade out......this could go on until Dec....:shock:

:dude:

**teknobucks** · 07-26-2005, 03:34 PM

The Technician wrote:

....wifes uncle died in a car wreck....

sorry 2 hear

**teknobucks** · 07-26-2005, 03:36 PM

The Technician wrote:

Another good article on dollar bonds and the Chinese Yaun yawnnn...didn't I say something about the yaun revaluation not being much of a hit last week......????

it may take some time to reflect the so-called change once they make their minds up as to what basket of currencies will be used.

tekno