Market Talk

**Spaf** · 07-17-2005, 03:17 AM

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: July 17, 2005

Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Growers profits were reported to be strong, and their production was up almost 1%. The Kingdom overall was said to be in very good shape. This was the 3rd week that market prices increased. Some vestors now see the market as moderately bullish, however skiddish with the high price of lube.

Elsewhere: More storms on the water. Weather folks have TVs tuned to Emily.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
The S&P Closed at 1227.92, up +16.06 for the week,
CMF (money flow) was declining at -0.013
RSI (strength) was leveling below under bought (70) at 65.7
MACD (trend) was very bullish at 7.41

Nymex (Crude oil)
Lube closed at 58.09, dn 1.54 for the week. Twice last week oil spiked above 60 (mainly on fear). The average weekly cost for a bucket of lube was 59.09

Attachment/Insert
S&P (3mo) chart ending July 15. Added: 20dMA, and MACD

Tea leaves: Yellow (caution) lube being in worry range (55-60), together with storms on the water.

Yak.

Remarks: Holding 100% G. Deciding possible stox? And, the Emily factor?
S&P Stops: Alert= 1216. Trailing= 1204.
Weekly TSP Returns: G= +.01, F= -.01, C= +.18, S= +.07, I= +.20 In equities: C was steady, S had a correction, and I was choppy.

**Spaf** · 07-17-2005, 03:21 AM

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday Early Edition Addendum
July 17, 2005

Weather News: The Emily Watch

Attachment:

**teknobucks** · 07-17-2005, 03:33 AM

bad time to be diving in cozumel....:shock:

**grandma** · 07-17-2005, 03:45 AM

Thank you, Spaf, for the Emily attachment - I got kids at Rockport - :shock: they plan on heading inland if need be - tho the one last year chased people land miles into Texas -

**grandma** · 07-17-2005, 04:28 AM

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=45312

...an article on the British pound being shorted - just before the explosions . ...

**Spaf** · 07-17-2005, 06:10 AM

grandma wrote:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=45312

...an article on the British pound being shorted - just before the explosions . ...

The insider folks seem toalways have the advanage, no matter what ever! :?Spaf

**learning** · 07-17-2005, 06:33 PM

Well Spaf. I followed you just a little. I forgot when I got in so I do not know if I made some money. I believe I did. :! I am starting to get cold feet. That is a good thing if you follow Tom. However, like Tom I suspect a fall soon. It will recover big. I am never right though. LOL Now, Mexico is going to take a hit from a huricane. They say it will be as bad as one was in 1988. Not good. May take more oil production off line.

Prayers are with those in harms way.

**vectorman** · 07-17-2005, 07:13 PM

Info about small caps: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050716/wall_main.html?.v=4

**Spaf** · 07-17-2005, 07:47 PM

vectorman wrote:

Info about small caps: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050716/wall_main.html?.v=4

Ya got to know a little more than that article.

The S-fund represents an index of the Wilshire 4500. A representative of index small caps would also be IJR. An index would represent everything. Two other variations would be the index split into two parts: growth and value. In small caps you find a variation in performance: see IJR for index, IJT for growth, and IJS for value.

In all funds you have to be selective. A week ago the S fund had an abnormal advance and had to correct itself.

We have a problem holding down a day or night job and also monitoring our funds.Sometimes I just park my funds for extra busy weeks! I have found I can really make a stupid play on a hurried decision.

**Birchtree** · 07-17-2005, 08:22 PM

Sometimes I just wish I was normal - therefore I could hang up my contrarian perspectives and chase the pretty girls like the S fund. But I know the wall flower is the better deal - if the SPX makes a decisive penetration above 1229 and holds, this would trigger valid projections between 1254 and 1286. I'm so ready for a long night.

The 5th year of the decade (decennial pattern - BUSH RALLY) has always been a bullish year for stocks and has produced an average gain of about 31% for the DJIA. A strong tendency of stocks to be bullish in years ending in 5 is as good a reason as any NOT to expect a market top at this time.

Spaf, if you don't get off that G fund - Smarty Jones will catch you on the last mile.

**Spaf** · 07-18-2005, 03:19 AM

Dennis,

If the AM looks good, I'll let my IFT fly.

July was a real bummer last year. And my trading records indicate that we started the Bull movement the 2nd week of August 2004.

Rgds

Spaf

**The_Technician** · 07-18-2005, 12:53 PM

The news last week....

Employment had been down due to auto, PPI and CPI are high, interest rates look to be going up again, energy prices remain too high, inventories are up, but manufacturing is moving againg (NY Empire State index) .....I'd say we are in a mix........Keep in mind that the net end of all this is global consumption for American products....whether Americans benefit from all this is still a small part of the equation.

Technically,

After all said and done the Accumulation is off for the month on the S&P. Since 16 Jun its only reached .996 of the peak of 16 June.....even though we have reached new levels on the index.....the level looks hollow underneath.

Given that, we are also high on short and long MACD's - they are trying to trend down, Std. Deviations and Stochs are peaked to the max, and impulsive buying is trending to the downside.....I'm still holding withcaution.....

not a good time to say "Get in, the Water is fine"....

Looks like a good time to watch the sharks swim for while....

:dude: