Thread: Falling Dollar?

Garnertr,

That foolish US dollar has just put in 13 month highs against the primary currencies we compete on a trade basis with, it's over extended and hopefully will begin a correction process. The Chinese yaun will most likely be revalued up some time this summer. A weaker dollar from its current level helps those companies that make money from overseas operations and will help with the trade deficit. When the dollar finally starts correcting that may be a signal the Fed is done raising rates. I want a weaker dollar.

Unless foreign economies start growing much more strongly than they have been, I don't see why the dollar would drop significantly. Higher interest rates + stronger economic growth than Europe / Japan = stronger dollar / weaker I fund.

Our economy is set to slow down though, so it certainly bears watching.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

When the dollar finally starts correcting that may be a signal the Fed is done raising rates. I want a weaker dollar.

I think we're going to continue to get a bit of what you're looking for over the year to come.

Not sure if this is a contrary opinion or not, but this writer seems to think the dollar bull has begun or is soon to begin. Bold call, very bold call. I think this is more a case of commodity bear over dollar bull, but it's worth the read.

It's a race to the bottom amongst all currency markets and I have a hard time believing we're at the bottom for the dollar here. If we get a correction, I can see a short term dollar rally, but I don't have the faith in our decision makers to choose deflation over inflation.

In spite of common wisdom to the contrary, the chart of the US Dollar Index and its major currency pairs indicate that the greenback is at or near an important low, quite possibly even a secular bear market low. This would, of course, run contrary to an ongoing commodities bull market.

http://www.thebullbear.com/group/the...-turning-point

Say what you will about the dollar, commodities and producers still have real value in some banks' eyes. Wine and Cheese, anyone?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/.../index/a/24212

Wonder what BAC or USB could do with a few large wine cellars full of quality vintages? California's bound to have some in their REO CRE properties somewhere. If banks'd accept the wine as downpayment and hold it for 5-10 years (think gold/silver storage trusts), some Cali homeowners might not be underwater now, would they, and the bank wouldn't have to play fake it til they make it?