Thread: Market Talk

(sorry Spaf thought you were on vacation)

As you can tell the bulls are getting more bullish and the bears are getting more bearish. This normally happens at tops and bottoms - but we shall see.

Biggy out of the box will be the Leading Indicators.

Good thing it comes out prior to the deadline.

Pretty slow week for economic reports. Funny how we get a slew of economic reports during trip and quad witch weeks? Hmmm.

Retails sales data on Tuesday (normal weekly stuff)

Weds (fuel/petro report) that could be a biggy this week. (normal report)

Thurs job less claims (normal report)

Durable goods on Friday. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders.

So the start and end of the week has an important report.

Hopefully you are on the right side of Mr Market.

Happy Investing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just voted, onebull: I say S&P 1230, ~+15.(It's just sentiment, remember.)

Dave

I read a lot of boards.

Everyone is bullish.

I am short.

USD has a strong bounce out of the box.

I fund looks like it is not the place to put new money into at this point.

As we know, no matter how well or bad the internationals do the USD is a strong headwind either way, i.e. the index can go up .5 or down .5 and the USD .3 move either way will wipe it out. :?

Why do they have to change the I fund back to USDs?

I posted a chart on major market performance and numero last was the U.S. (again). Two years running. You will not hear that on CNBS .

Crude just went over 59.

US futures DOW down 22 all ready.

Anyone surprised? :P

Precious metals areramping and so is crude. However, USD is also on a bounce.

I believe USD is going to lose. May go 100% I fund prior to close.



BTW: Crude was at 60 for about 5 minutes.

Thank goodness I am heavy in OIH sector.



BTW: Side note DOW futures down 38.

Current contract on crude. They just moved the chart up to show 62.5 .

Here is what the week has in store for us:

Looking Ahead: Week of June 20 to June 24

Monday
Many of the components of the index of leading indicators were negative in May. The factory workweek declined, new claims rose (but that is a negative for this index), vendor performance decreased, as did consumer expectations and the spread between the 10-year note and the fed funds rate. Stock prices did rise for the month.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for May 05: -0.3 percent
Range: -0.4 to -0.2 percent
Thursday
New jobless claims inched up 1,000 in the week ended June 11 to 333,000. The four-week moving average also increased marginally to 335,000 for the week. Thus far, the average for the two weeks in June is just a bit lower than the May average for new claims.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/18/05: 330,000 (-3,000)
Range: 320,000 to 330,000
Existing home sales jumped 4.5 percent in April to a 7.18 million-unit rate. Strong gains were registered in the South, Midwest and Northeast. Sales in the West were flat in April. As long as mortgage rates remain at low levels, housing activity could remain healthy. However, we may not see the same magnitude of growth that we have in the past.
Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for May 05: 7.20 million-unit rate
Range: 6.90 to 7.25 million-unit rate
Friday
New orders for durable goods rose 1.9 percent in April after declining in each of the three previous months. The transportation sector boosted orders in April. Aircraft orders have been healthy lately, and this could help boost orders in coming months as well.
Durable goods orders Consensus Forecast for May 05: 2 percent
Range: -0.5 to +4 percent
New single-family home sales were nearly unchanged at a 1,316,000-unit rate in April. New home sales jumped in the Northeast and rose in the West, but declined in the Midwest and the South. The strength in single-family housing starts in May suggest a potential rise in new home sales for May as well.
[align=justify]New home sales Consensus Forecast for Apr 05: 1,320,000
Range: 1,250,000 to 1,350,000-unit rate [/align]

Note: Durable goods BA lost a 6B contract this morning.

Boeing Co. has lost a $6 billion Air Canada order for 777 and 787 jets after the members of the carrier's pilots union rejected a cost-cutting deal that would have cleared the way for the purchase.

Thedata from above stated: Aircraft orders have been healthy lately, and this could help boost orders in coming months as well.

Opps. They probably wish they could change that line now.

BA (Boeing) is a member of the DOW. The shorts are all over it on this bad news.

WOW USD is up .7, crude is up and the precious metals are up.

It is really strange that they are all up huge.

If it was not for crude going to I fund here looks like a good move for a short time.

Remember FOMC rate high next week. I fund normally does not like that.

Normally if precious metals is up USD is down and if oil is up USD is down.

Really a disconnect here. I do not know why. That is what makes this fun. :P

Oh boy.

All ready hearing "this is a healthy pull back" by the "experts". What happened to it will only go up talk all ready?

:shock:Next will be buy this dip. It never stops. What does a use car sales man do? Try to sell you the lemon of the lot - the hunk of junk taking up valuable space. What does an "expert" do? Try to keep you invested, not move your money and have you add more.

I am on margain 300% short now. :^