Thread: Market Talk

I love your insights and research. Thanx for the help. I'm up 2.35% for the month. Don't knowif that's real good but I'll take it.

After last week's divine lightning bolt of random success, I'll post my thoughts and expectations a bit earlier than midday Monday thistime. :P

Minor economic data (consumer confidence + factory orders + oil prices) will define the trading range leading to Friday's payroll report. I expect that report to come in somewhere near market expectations of 180k, which will continue the rally. If oil remains in its current range of $50-55 / barrel, some gains will be sapped, unfortunately (beware of the Saudi king's health issues - if he dies, oil will spike!).

My guess on the trading range through Thursday: 1189-1207 on the S&P. A good report on Friday (130k-230k) should give us a nice little bump into the 1215-1220 range (this is what I expect). If oil behaves itself / drops back to $50, we could wind up in the 1220's, but I don't think oil will do that in the very short term.

Caution: the payroll report is an important piece of data. A big surprise on this in either direction could inflict serious pain on your TSP balance, so be careful out there.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is warning that the U.S. current account deficit will hit $900 billion or 6.7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in 2006. These very large numbers are caused by a continued reinforcement of global imbalances: on the one hand, a very low U.S. savings rate, high U.S. consumption fostered by very low interest rates, and cheap Asian goods flooding the U.S. market (cheap because Asia subsidizes their exports through low exchange rates).


http://www.merkfund.com/merk-perspec...005-05-26.html


http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Br...-June+2005.htm

************may be a good time ahead 4 the I fund.....however take this into account before u jump:

Uk and Europe in the doldrums. Comments on UK rates. We know Europe is in trouble, but the Euro discounts a lot of negatives.

OUTLOOK UK data set to support predictions of rates staying on hold
Friday, May 27, 2005 12:34:30 PM
http://www.afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - There will be enough economic evidence next week to ensure that interest rates in the UK will remain on hold at the next rate-setting meeting of the Bank of England, analysts said

They reckon that the data flow next week will continue to show consumption on the wane and the manufacturing sector displaying anaemic growth at best

In those conditions the Monetary Policy Committee will have no impetus to change its key repo rate from 4.75 pct at the following meeting on June 9, especially in light of its last economic projections in the May Inflation Report

The economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday -- there is no data on Monday due to a bank holiday in the UK -- with two gauges of consumption released

Both the surveys from GfK Martin Hamblin and the Confederation of British Industry are expected to show consumption continuing to grow but not at the heady rates experienced over the last couple of years

The GfK's main consumer confidence balance is expected to be unchanged at zero

"While confidence remains at these levels, it does not point to a collapse in consumer expenditure and we stand by our expectation of some acceleration over the rest of 2005, staving off rate cuts until 2006," said David Page, an economist at Investec Securities

Meanwhile, the CBI survey is expected to show the reported sales balance improving markedly from April's -14 to zero, but that is not indicative of a sector in rude health, analysts said

A similar picture is likely to emerge with Bank of England April lending data on Wednesday. Both mortgage lending and net consumer credit are expected to be little changed on the previous months

John Butler, economist at HSBC, said the mortgage approvals data in particular are not likely to be consistent, at least yet, with a collapse in the market

Mortgage approvals in April are expected to fall 1,000 from the previous month's 90,000, pushing net mortgage lending down slightly to 6.8 bln stg from 7.0 bln

"The message from this set of data should be more that demand for unsecured borrowing is slowing far faster than that for secured," he said

Butler expects net new consumer credit during the month to fall to 1.1 bln stg, way below market expectations of 1.6 bln stg, and March's 1.9 bln

Thursday's monthly house price survey from the Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, is also poised to show market activity steadying. Monthly house prices are expected to be relatively unchanged from the previous month

"Price stickiness has been in evidence in recent months as valuations have held up better than measures of underlying activity such as the number of new mortgage approvals or the number of completions," said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland

On the industrial side of the economy, the monthly PMI survey from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply on Wednesday is expected to show the manufacturing sector still in the doldrums


of course during the weekend there are some major events occuring over in Europe land re: the EU voting.

tekno

still not ready to go into I in a major way.

random news articles off tt posts:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dollar, my foot
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_.../GE28Dj01.html

Hedge Funds Are Stumbling but Manager Salaries Aren't
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/bu...yt&emc=rss

HP subject to class action lawsuit
http://www.computersettlement.com/

Bull’s Eye
http://www.outlookindia.com/bullseye...dname=20050606

Tues may be a good day to get in the water:

http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/updown-holidays.htm

more on dollar , gold , etc. from quasimodos:



http://www.quasimodos.com/cgi-bin/in...mp;Command=626

Analysis paralysis charts:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID401943

coming up against resistance on almost every front....can we blow thru it?

tekno

I think we could try and test 1225on the S&Pby next Friday if we can get the volume next week. Still lots of things on investors minds. The French vote, oil and the jobs report will determine if we can get the volume back..... We need good news for the break-out.

banker's spin...LOL

http://www.wachovia.com/ws/econ/view/0,,2484,00.pdf

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID641835

The European markets were open for business today. The big no-vote in France appearsto have shaken things up but not too much. After scanning today's headlines, I have a good feeling -- just a feeling mind you -- about the coming week in our markets. Bad news is absent. Good news is floating around.

What is the latest on the oil front?

BTW Tekno, that Wachovia article is scary. Thanks for posting it.

Dave