Thread: Market Talk

Or are we in a real bear market? This is not always the best of seasons. The market appears to have started to make lower highes and lower lowes. We shall see what happens. It will have to make a move or we could be in the side ways trading range for a while. Not good. Unless it goes up for a while then down. We could play that and perhaps a few have managed to do that. I think Moday will be good. I would have put more in on Friday. Played to much in the woods to do that though. However, the woods have saved me a couple of times from doing a bad trade. Only a few times has it cost me a good trade. Goes to show I do not know whay I am doing.:P Perhaps it will be another Santa Rally before I go all in again at this rate. The I fund does not look good with another Fed meeting coming up. Looks like the dollar rallies until the Fed meets and then it takes a hit. May pull out of the I fund on Monday for Tuesday.

Learning,

We won't officially be in a bear market until the indexes are down 20%. Currently the Dow is down under 7%, and the sp500 is down around 5%. No bear market on the horizon that I can see. I believe we are completing a long 6 year cycle that has been in effect since the Dow high of 11722.98 in Jan 14, 2000. Prior to that the Dow was in a long cycle up trend from somewhere in 1994 untll Jan. 14, 2000. The actual cross over the 10000 mark happened around 3/1999. Shortly after that is when the sideways motion started. I think that cycle is close to ending-but nothing is exact in the markets-that's why we have technicians to help narrow things down.

As a fundamentalist contrarian, I prefer to look at the economic data. Some talking heads are touting slow growth and an end of the economic cycle this time around. They are trying to preempt the Fed strict monetary policy. This is why many hedge funds were selling commodity stocks last week and had me in a bear hug. My sides still hurt-but the hurt is a good hurt. Is that concept difficult to understand?

Learning,

I thought I was running out of room. At any rate, even if the economy is in the late stages of the economic cycle, that's when commodity producers tend to well. Remember, unlike Wall Street, sentiment, economic and inflationary cycles don't turn on a dime. Someday this bull market will be over and the economic expansion will end, as they all do. But I'm willing to bet the world didn't change all that much starting 3/05. It's times like these when a steady, measured approach can yield outsize gains. Preparation in purpose is the key in this market for the moment. If it becomes necessary to make more sacrifices this coming week and I'm forced to take some more profits that will enable me to buy more bargains, my plan is ready. I will be glad when my sides stop hurting though-it's not natural to enjoy this much pain.

But the renegade contrarian is getting them cheap. Have to keep that Mike critical eye view on the future in focus. 300 hundred point Dow here we come-one has to always be prepared for the surprise.

Learning

Yes , we are in a secular bear market, but the current condition is a cyclical bull market inside the secular bear. The cyclical bull began around March 2003 when the S&P was around 800. I'm with Birchtree, this cyclical bull is not done yet... But rest assured the end is coming and we well be back in the secular bear. These cyclical Bulls usually last around 36 months. We are getting close to the end.You will not find to many buy and hold investers on this board. Many of us have no love affair for going long on stocks.Tom keeps pointing out we are very close to the bottoming process. I agree with him. I have been adding new money on these pull backs under 1160 S&P.The bulls think we have a way to go around 1300 for the S&P, the Bears think the party is over..It's a tough call when your putting up your hard earned money.. but I'm staying long for now..... I will add more money the next few weeks on the pull backs.



"The cleansing process continues. The bottom contiunes to form. The process needs to be scary enough to force stocks out of weak hands and into strong hands, and that is exactly what we have been withnessing over the past two months."


..................Bob Brinker.........................

You can listen to Bob Brinker on AM radio every Saturday and Sunday afternoon.



"The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding go out to met it."

.....Thucydides...........

Robo,

The Bears already have me up a tree. You are making me nervous with talk of a secular bear market. I believe we are starting a new back to back secular bull market-so there take that. We are in the last inning of a 6 year transition market that started in early 1999. Prior to that we had a 6 year run up from around 1994-early 2000. Take a look at the latest sp500 graphs for 1996 and 1997 that Tom kindly posted. Wouldn't you rather see a move that is similar in trend and duration. Glad you are getting some good buys on these lows, generally all I do is close my eyes and hold my nose and go for it-always hoping I land on my feet.

Birchtree wrote:

Glad you are getting some good buys on these lows, generally all I do is close my eyes and hold my nose and go for it-always hoping I land on my feet.

Birchtree, I truly hope and pray you are correct but this image came to mind >

For those of you who, like me, don't know what a secular bear market is. The following is a good explanation. The article also outlines some strategies for coping with a secular bear.

http://www.fundadvice.com/FEhtml/Psy...es/02bear.html

First to all thanks. REALLY ALL OF THE POST WERE GREAT. That last artical posted by Rokid was great. Hope I got your handle correctly. All of it helps me believe that I have started to develop some good ideas. Keeping two seperat books lets me play the market with two valid good ideas. One is future monies are split and I will not move them. Takes some work their as you have to figure out what percentage to move. If you move to much then keep track and put it back in later. The other is move the money when I am or fairly confident. Then the other part is being in the market from November to end of March. (Yea, I took a hit and bailed at the start of the year. Took the first three days of losses and played a little from there to this date.)

I still think the I fund is in for a hit and Iam looking at pulling out until after the Fed speaks. Take a look and you will see that the Dollar goes up until they speak. People want to bet that the Fed will become more aggresive with the intrest rates. Then they stay the course and people dump the dollar. So the I fund makes me a little nervous. Though their market may do well. Any ideas on this also is appreciated. I hate being slow but that is what I am. I over study at times and like things black and white. The market is a gamble and people have to win and others have to lose. So it is not black and white or all would win.:x

Bulls vs Bears

There are a number of various definitions for Bull and Bear markets. The majority are simply a way of describing good and bad trends.

For investors, it's good to know The Dow Theory. This places the Bulls and Bears in relation to the primary market movements, especially how they (the movements) start, and when they are confirmed.

The Dow Theory fairly well fits TSP investment strategy. However, it doesn't go into stocks being range bound or stuck in a trading range like we have been in since around January.

The Dow Theory link:

http://www.stockcharts.com/education...owtheory1.html

The Theory is in 3 parts, all worth reading!

I have several of Suze Orman's books. She, IMHO has very good ideas.

Rgds! Spaf

Spaf,

I just realized a while back I made a comment comparing the IRS to the Gestapo. Do you think that may have precipitated the e-mails from Germany-I apologize to all in the Deutchland.

We had a Dow Theory confirmation in early March when the Dow was hitting new highs of 10997. Both the Transports and the Utilities also were putting in new highs offering a confirmation concurrently. The guru of the Dow Theory, Richard Russell, refused to commit, but several other followers went 100% bullish. Then stuff begins to happen and we drop 900 points before the print is even dry. I'm still 100% long and making no hedges-take what comes my way. Even if them sharks WW sent along take a few of my toes. A vundabar week coming. Dennis

Birchtree wrote:

The Bears already have me up a tree.