Thread: 2 questions for Tom and other bulls that are 100% in stocks funds

Greg.

I'll take a shot at these questions. The sp500 in my bullish opinion has the potential to go to 1400 just following past history, perhaps by the end of this year. It all depends on what type of surprises pop up.

I would seriously consider heading for the shelter when .....

The market is in a trading range. A primary movement (bullish or bearish) has not been established. A trading range means ups and downs between support and resistance. The higher high was 1225.31 on March 7th for the S&P. The double bottom was 1137.50 on April 20th.

Fundamentals (the economy) look good, not great, good. Last reported of 437 companies: 67% were:}, 14% were even, and 17% were:{. However, we have the Horsemen to contend with (energy, inflation, rates, and earnings).

Technically, see: http://stockchart.com Gallery view and Sharp chart for $SPX (S&P 500). Indicator appear to be positive, and yes up and downs can be expected. The daily charts can be somewhat hypnotic, and only show trends. The weekly chart sort of gives a bigger picture.

Will the market reach 1225? It could if in my opinion they keep energy in check. Less then 50$ a barrel, we are ok. 50-55, there is worry. Over 55, the market gets skiddish.

When to go to the G-fund? IMHO when the fundamentals and technicals turn sour.
However this may be a series of degrees.
The way I look at it is: the temperature of the market vs the amount of individual risk;has to be established by the individual investor. When do I go to the G-fund? Probally, a lot sooner thenothers since my retirement is not that far off.

Rgds! Spaf

The bulls have spoken,

The reports on the economy are mixed, is the economy improving, not exactly. Historically governments have been unable to keep overpriced markets from declining. The truth of the matter is that stock prices are overvalued. Financial statements from most companies cannot be relied upon. Bullish poeple talk of a recovery, I don't see the catalyst, the market can't possibly stay at these high levels. The S&P500 is currently in a declining trend, loss of confidence, low trading volumeand fear is up. I see no evidence to change this bear market. There maybe a rally now and then, some knee jerk reaction to some news or annocement. We may not see a crash, but a study decline in the market place seems to be unavoidable. Politicians and companies can lie about the economy, make-belive the world is a perfect place and we all shop at walmart. The truth will bear all.

GM, FORD, DELTA AIRLINES, big companies slowly sinking. This is where I decide to step into the stock market, beefing up my TSP account and make big money. TSP is a wonderful opportunity to do just that. Tsp talk is here to help in making your own decisions and to invest your money with something better than a guess. Even in a declining market you can make money. Timing and some luck will need to be on your side.

I wish good fortune shines on you and all those in TSP TALK.

YOURS TRULY Cliff.

PS feeling a little G fund bearish today.

carloc wrote:

PS feeling a little G fund bearish today.

Your not the only one!

greg wrote:

1. How high are you expecting the market to go the rest of May? during the summer? how close to 1229?

2. What would it take (market wise) for you to go 100%G?

1. Don't know, it depends on oil / interest rate hikes. The current earnings season was good for the most part, but the market hasn't really reacted much to that due to high oil prices and inflation worries. I'd say the S&P will have an awfully tough time getting close to its previous 2005 high with oil where it is right now.

2. I will never go 100G with my long-term approach. I'll certainly start using the F fund more when I clear 50 years of age, though.

There is a time for all the funds... In this market we expect the sp500 to go up 7-10% this year... its down ? 5% or so now so I see a 12% rise by the end of the year to get that 7-10% for the year. So you will need to move in and out of the stocks funds to gain more than that... Will I ever move 100% g and stay there NO At times I will be 100%g but will be looking for that swing point to get back in... until I get a signal to get out.... that might last 2 days or 12 months.
Last yeat I only traded 5 times and made 18% this year has been alot more trades with little results.. but its getting better...
Skip

Greg,

To answer the second part of your question-this is what I would try and do to go 100% G fund. As the C fund tracking the sp500 begins to rally back to its' all time high of 1527.56, that's the sp500, which was in spring of 2000, I would begin to remove small increments of 2% all the way to 1700. That would be terribly difficult to do - getting out on the new highs. But that is what is required of a contrarian. Sell on the highs when everyone else is hungary for those profits.

Today was an excellent opportunity to make some propitious buys. I made a few and will most likely pay the price for even lower pricing tomorrow-but maybe not. I'm happy to add to my portfolio. I appreciate payroll contributions too, especially in the C-fund. It did show fairly reasonable relative strength-perhaps because the sp500 is rather light in the energy patch.

greg wrote:

1. How high are you expecting the market to go the rest of May? during the summer? how close to 1229?

2. What would it take (market wise) for you to go 100%G?

1.)Close. I think as it appoached this year's high, I would be getting much more defensive, right about where you said.

2.)From a longer term viewpoint, it would be when my indicators get bearish which could take weeks, months or years. But of course I could make someshort term movesto 100% G moves if the short term indicators get overbought and we approach 1220 to 1225.