Thread: Will the low of 1137 be tested this week!

MOST LIKELY.
It'll fall tomorrow and not back up like Friday afternoon.
The real bottom will happen this summer; the smart money will wait until Fall before getting back in.

For the short termI have buy signals in the sp500 and the I fund... Cut your losses fast when the market turns.... We just can't have another 3 days like 13,14,15 th

Skip

Unless there is some unexpectedly negative piece of economic news, I don't see the low being tested this week. We'll probably wobble in a 25 point range (1145-1170 perhaps).

We wobbled around in a trading range... what a shock. :P

It was a shock to me Mike.I was very concerned we would test 1100. I think you made a good call. What's your take for next week? I'm thinking maybe we can move thru 1166 and test the 1180's.... If we can, I will sell into the rally.

With oil under 50 and sp500 earning better than expected I think the worst is over.
I still don't have a buy signal for the s fund just C and I ... The dollar is above 84 and rising so Im out of the I fund for now. best bet C with a little in the S fund....

Skip

Nobody worried about the Fed meeting Tuesday?

The pain of the last 8 weeks has hurt to the point where it is starting to feel good.Robo if you sell into the up coming rally you will most likely miss the next 200 points in sp500. There will be no looking back. Skip you have made a goog call. Does anyone pay attention to W bottoms? Check out the sp500 on 8/04. Did anyone notice the sp500 did not confirm the 4th low of the Dow in 8/04. No other important index did either-the Dow was a head fake then and here comes another one now. The market likes to take as few people with it on the upside as possible and as many people with it as possible on the downside-no humility. As you may surmise I am a contrarian. This is my initial introduction to the board on talk. I hope I am not violating any good manner rules. Just offering my thoughts for what they may be worth. I believe the Fed will offer us a surprise on 5/3 and we will have another 3000 points on the Dow going forward. The train is leaving the station, how fast can you run to catch it? Tom is on the right track and grade1-step1 has already bought his ticket. The panic we feel from fearerais awful, but the panic generated from greed(missing the boat) is even worse. My investing creed: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. Always works for me but difficult to enact-like now.

Mlk.... Skips reply pretty well hits the mark. With high oil pessimism abounds.

Skip wrote:

With oil under 50 and sp500 earning better than expected I think the worst is over.
I still don't have a buy signal for the s fund just C and I ... The dollar is above 84 and rising so Im out of the I fund for now. best bet C with a little in the S fund....

Skip

Yea, I think you are right. I see the C fund as the place to be. The I fund may pick up on Tue or Wed. I do not like the S as intrest rates will be going up and that may hurt the S fund more. The I fund could take a soft hit and then go up. Intrest rates is bad for the I fund when the go up in the U.S.. However, we have some problems in our market it appears in the world opionion. So perhaps money will leave after the Fed speaks. (I do not believe the Fed will say anything that will get the market to upset. We have had enough problems and I suspect they may not want to start stagflation.) So when the Fed does not say something to change course we will have an up day for the C. People will leave the U.S. dollar as they may be waiting to see if we get more aggresive with ourhigher intrest rates. So I fundwill do good shortly after the Fed speaks. (Day or two, probley same day). Of course I will keep a big chunk in the G fund. Safe harbor until I am certain. This is my guess. I have been wrong more then right:dah:. So- do not follow me.

Be careful

Birchtree Wrote

The pain of the last 8 weeks has hurt to the point where it is starting to feel good.Robo if you sell into the up coming rally you will most likely miss the next 200 points in sp500. There will be no looking back. Skip you have made a goog call. Does anyone pay attention to W bottoms? Check out the sp500 on 8/04. Did anyone notice the sp500 did not confirm the 4th low of the Dow in 8/04. No other important index did either-the Dow was a head fake then and here comes another one now. The market likes to take as few people with it on the upside as possible and as many people with it as possible on the downside-no humility. As you may surmise I am a contrarian. This is my initial introduction to the board on talk. I hope I am not violating any good manner rules. Just offering my thoughts for what they may be worth. I believe the Fed will offer us a surprise on 5/3 and we will have another 3000 points on the Dow going forward. The train is leaving the station, how fast can you run to catch it? Tom is on the right track and grade1-step1 has already bought his ticket. The panic we feel from fearerais awful, but the panic generated from greed(missing the boat) is even worse. My investing creed: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. Always works for me but difficult to enact-like now.

I sure hope your thoughts are on target. When I said I would sell into the rallyaround (1200 TO 1225), I'm currently 100% in stocks. I'm going to reduce my allocation to 50% fixed income and 50% stock until we can get thru the fed rate hikes this summer. Then I'm planning to get100% back into stocks. To quote Bob Brinker "This market is on steroids". It's out of control!!!!!! He agrees with you that things look good, and we should set some new highs this year. I get his news letter. He thinks the S&P can reach 1275 for this year . Thanks for your comments!!! That's why I joined this board to get additional insight before I make my investment decisions.But at the end, good our bad they must be mine. Looking for the rally to start next week, IF THE FED CAN GIVE US SOME HELP WITH IT'S COMMENTS, AND OIL COULD STAY UNDER 50 FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS, WE COULD SEE A NICE LITTLE RALLY. IF NOT WE ARE STUCK IN THIS NARROW TRADING RANGE.

Hoping the Fed will signal it's almost done for the year, That will help send the S&P 500 up that 200 points you suggested