Thread: Market Talk

LOVE THE GREENBUCKS PIC!!!:^

Maybe GE will give the market a much needed boostfor Monday???

Or will it be "old news" by then...:zz

God Bles:^

Rod wrote:

LOVE THE GREENBUCKS PIC!!!:^

Maybe GE will give the market a much needed boostfor Monday???

Or will it be "old news" by then...:zz

God Bles:^

Thank God!

April is historically supposed to be one of the best months for stocks. Can you imagine what would have happened otherwise?

tekno

Rod wrote:

LOVE THE GREENBUCKS PIC!!!:^
God Bles:^

Tecknobucks - I truly am glad you went back to your original avatar!

That Greenbucks pic is Gross!!! :P

that's what my wife said...LOL

here is a good link for last weak:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...?obj=ID1125974

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID641835

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID648573

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID445101

this guy predicts a crash every year...hope he is wrong as usual:

* after all remember every year ending with 5 is usually up.....????:P



Joe Granville Predicts 2005 Dow Crash
By Ari Levy

Feb. 2005 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Granville, who accurately forecast in 2000 that U.S. stocks' bull market would end, is at it again. He expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to suffer its biggest annual loss this year since the Great Depression.

"We're in the critical portion of a coming collapse and the market's screaming to get out,'' said Granville in an interview from Kansas City, Missouri. ``Everyone's bullish. There's going to be a tremendous surprise and it's going to be to the downside.''

The 81-year-old analyst expects the Dow average to retreat to at least 7400 by year-end. The forecast amounts to a plunge of 31 percent. The last year in which the benchmark fell that much was 1937, when it lost 33 percent.

As a technical analyst, Granville predicts the market's direction by using criteria such as trading and price patterns, rather than earnings and economic growth. He started developing his stock market theory at what was
then E.F. Hutton & Co. from 1957 to 1963.

Granville's main indicator is called on-balance volume, or OBV. It gauges a stock's momentum. If a stock rises, the day's volume will be added to a cumulative OBV figure. If the share price falls, the total will be subtracted. Granville applies this analysis to all 30 stocks in the Dow each day.

"Volumes are pointing to declines based on what I've learned,'' he said.

The Dow average has dropped 1.8 percent this year to 10,593.10, led by Merck & Co.'s 12 percent slump. Granville predicted that the benchmark would tumble 12 percent in the first quarter, to 9500.

Granville also follows charts that track the daily number of advancing and declining stocks, the number of stocks reaching 52- week highs and lows, and investor sentiment. He compiles the measures into what he call his "Net Field Trend Indicator,'' used to predict the market's direction.

In his Jan. 20 newsletter, he wrote that his indicator had retreated to its level on Oct. 21, 1929, eight days before the Dow's two-day, 24 percent plunge. "The Dow is technically on its last legs,'' he wrote.

On March 11, 2000, the day after the Nasdaq climbed to a record 5048.62, Granville wrote that investors in technology stocks "will soon be burned.'' The index plunged 78 percent before bottoming on Oct. 9, 2002.

In 1976, in his book "Granville's New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit,'' he said a bear market would occur from 1977-1978. The Dow plunged 26 percent from the beginning of 1977 through February 1978 after a two-year surge.

"He's very well respected as a market technician, but the bottom line is the bottom line,'' said Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Digest. For anyone who followed his advice during the past 20 years, "Would you be better off than putting your money in an index fund? The answer is no.''

Granville's record as a market timer is better for the five years ended in December, according to Hulbert's data. Investors using his recommendations to buy and sell a fund mirroring the Wilshire 5000 Index would have produced a 5 percent annualized return. Investors who bought and held the index fund for those five years would have lost on average 1.4 percent a year.

Granville is more bearish than strategists at investment banks, who focus more on earnings. They expect the S&P 500 to climb 3.1 percent to 1250 in 2005, based on the median estimate in a survey of 14 analysts by Bloomberg.

In his view, firms on Wall Street "seldom get it right.'' Charts show "the market will go up on falling earnings and down on rising earnings,'' Granville wrote on
Jan. 27. This "makes one wonder about the level of Wall Street intelligence.''

The Mystique of "5"Scoop . . .
(Analysis) Stock market performance since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average INDU in 1897 reveals some startling and very optimistic statistics relating to the fifth year within every decade.


http://www.investing-news.com/artman/publish/article_167.shtml



-rep