Tough Call This Morning

**tsptalk** · 04-08-2005, 03:13 PM

I just wanted to touch base. The market is flip flopping so far this morningand I'm still torn between expecting a pullback, and going against the masses (the smart and dumb money) who also seem to think a pullback is immanent.

Falling oil throws a wrench into the mix.

I will likely make a last minute decision. You'll only hear from me if I make a transfer.

Thanks,
Tom

**robo** · 04-08-2005, 03:42 PM

Tom, The tech I follow stated some of the smart money has been moving back into the market. I'm going to take a chance and move some money into the c fund today on this pull back. It really is a tough call right now.Hoping the market can go to 1225 buy the end of May.

**Wheels** · 04-08-2005, 05:08 PM

Going over everyones account threads this morning it seems like a lot of you are retreating to safety. I'm staying fully invested in stocks, 50 C and 50 I. Hoping that today is just a hiccup in a new uptrend.

Dave

**puertorico** · 04-08-2005, 05:18 PM

agree wich wheels

todays friday 20-g 40-c 20-s 20-i

monday 50-c 30-s 20 i

Todays down is helping me to get me full invested :^

**smine** · 04-08-2005, 06:27 PM

Hey PR! Long time no see! Ditto that plan to get in; went 33C 33S and 34F after being in G taking a breal from stress. Good luck to us all :^

**tsptalk** · 04-08-2005, 06:46 PM

puertorico wrote:

agree wich wheels

todays friday 20-g 40-c 20-s 20-i

monday 50-c 30-s 20 i

Todays down is helping me to get me full invested :^

So far this looks likea healthy pullback. If we can keep from getting that "waterfall" decline (I'd say there is a small ~10 to 20% chance) this is probably a decent buying opp. I stayed put as I would have been more nervous if we were up again today.

I did come close to pulling the trigger but I talked myself out of it becuase my short term "wiggle" plays have been poor at best lately.

**tsptalk** · 04-09-2005, 01:05 AM

The "healthy" pullback I mentioned earlier ended up being a little sickly even though it will probably help the longer term out. I am just worried about that 1994 like drop. The 3 legs of the market are doing well enough that I think we should avoid anything severe.

The lack volume of the rally this week was a concern to many so it may be a little relief to get a pullback on the lowest volume of the year on Friday. There wascertainly no rush to the exit. All in all, I think things are still OK.

04-09-2005, 01:48 AM

tsptalk wrote:

The "healthy" pullback I mentioned earlier ended up being a little sickly even though it will probably help the longer term out. I am just worried about that 1994 like drop. The 3 legs of the market are doing well enough that I think we should avoid anything severe.

The lack volume of the rally this week was a concern to many so it may be a little relief to get a pullback on the lowest volume of the year on Friday. There wascertainly no rush to the exit. All in all, I think things are still OK.

So Tom, you think we are still in a rally and the C&S Funds are best for next week verses the I or G. eh?

**Safetyguy** · 04-09-2005, 03:17 AM

tsptalk wrote:

All in all, I think things are still OK.

I was afraid that today would be a bit bad -- However, they key is for the most part was that the marketfinished as an up week.

If I were into conspiracy theory, it looks like the smart money sold off today and took profit BUT not enough to make it look like the market is in some kind of decline. Therefore, Joe MiddleAmerica hears on the TV news that the markets were up for the week and sleeps like a baby tonight.

My prediction for next week (give or take) -- Monday will probably be up, Tuesday flat to down slightly, Wed up, Thursday down, Friday up to the point where the entire week will be up slightly from Monday.

**tsptalk** · 04-09-2005, 03:37 AM

greg wrote:

So Tom, you think we are still in a rally and the C&S Funds are best for next week verses the I or G. eh?

To be honest, the I fund has my number. I have been way off trying to predict the movement of the dollar but it has been the EAFE index that has done the best. Perhaps the I fund was sold off enough and is ready for a sustained rally. I'm just not sure. I think the dollar has bottomed but it does have room to move up and down still.

I am in C and S and I believe if we do get a rally you will do OK there.