MARKET WATCH

**CSI** · 03-29-2005, 07:13 PM

Has anyone noticed that for the last week the volumn on the NYSE has been greater than on the NASDAQ. Also, the number of new 52 week lows has been greater than new highs during this same time by about 2 to 1. All this has happened while over all news has been good to above average. Just my opinion, but, if we get some really bad news, I think we will see a 10 to 20% sell off depending on investor sentiment of the news. Currently I'm 100% G waiting for a chance to get back in the market.

**tsptalk** · 03-29-2005, 08:29 PM

Hey CSI -
I noticed that too. That is a sign of a flight to safety and usually a sign that we are either near a bottom or about to fall off the table.:shock: That's why I'm also 100% G. I'd like to see another move down although I don't believe it will be quite as severe as you mentioned. My quess is a few percentage points more. I'd like to see the S&P 500 hit the 200 day moving average, current near 1155, or 1150 where the upward trend line lies.

**CSI** · 03-29-2005, 09:18 PM

I'm sure you will agree. The more times the market tries to rise only to fall lower is not a good sign. The one thing I watch probably more than anything is the number of new highs and lows. In my experience, when the number of new highs is 4 or 5 times the number of new lows, the market is at or close to a top and a selloff is in the works, and the reverse is true. Today, new lows were 3 to 1 over new highs. A couple of more down or sideways days could spell the bottom or close to it. I will probably sit out until next week and see how the numbers run. I may jump back in for Monday depending on what the market does between now and the cut off Friday.

**tsptalk** · 03-29-2005, 10:15 PM

Sitting out until next week is probably the wise thing to do. I am fighting myself andthelure of thepositive bias of the first day, week and three weeks of April's historical strength. Although I still carry the scars from last July when I fell for that trap.

Tomorrow and Thursday's action may help us decide the best course of action.

**CSI** · 03-30-2005, 04:47 PM

Wishing you the best by jumping in. It looks like solid gains at the moment today, but volumn and new highs vs new lows does not support a sustained rally yet. I'm thinking there will be a selloff later today. I finally got even for the yr earlier this month only to gamble one day and got hit with a 1% loss, which is where I stand now. I'm a gambler at heart, but I really hate to lose. I feel like you do and try to go opposite the herd. I still feel that the dumb money as you say has not gotten whipped down yet. Maybe today or tomorrow. I'm still in a wait and see position even though I hate to miss out on a bump up. My userid says it all. I would rather be in the CSI funds.

**robo** · 03-31-2005, 12:36 AM

Fred Goodman of Trend Macrolytics stated, "Likely is another test of 1163 before any substantive upmove." I'm selling into this rally. He's not always correct, but has a very good track record.

**Rod** · 03-31-2005, 12:54 AM

Well, it looks as if yesterday MAY have been the bottom. What do you all think?

What an excellent day it was today!

God Bless:^

**Rod** · 03-31-2005, 01:06 AM

Where's everyone at???:%

We had a great day today...

**GGal** · 03-31-2005, 02:12 AM

Hi, did we really have a great day today, or were the fund managers just closing out the quarter?

Oil down, right, but not really enough.

My husband, the small businessman whose main customers are other businesses, says March has been a slow month for sales.

Hmmmmmm.

Henny Penny (aka Gawga)

**Rod** · 03-31-2005, 02:31 AM

This is usually the trend when we don't really know when to bail or to buy in-

When we think we need to bail or stay out, the market naturally takes off.

When we think we need to buy-in, the market sinks. Then we are stuck in the mire unless we don't mind selling off low.

Right now, A LOT of you are either sitting in (G), or were sitting in (G) and placed an order today thinking that today would bottom out even more, and that might possibly be the bottom. Well, now you find yourself buying in "high" since today was a great day. But, it's not necessarily high since the past couple weeks have been terrible. You may very well be buying in at a good correction point with the market taking off from today.

But, if you are still in (G) you may want to consider buying in NOW in case we are indeed in the up-trend. I don't know if we are, but it seems we are. The DOW has made it's largest gain in 4months. Also, with April right around the corner begins a new quarter and a fairly decent trading month. So, now may be your time to "jump in", or youmay find yourslelf "side-lined" in (G)like I have been in (I) these past couple weeks.

Just my amateur thoughts.

God Bless:^

**coolhand** · 03-31-2005, 02:54 AM

As high as the I fund went today it's share price remained unchanged. Not a bad thing as I moved 20% into it today. Still have not received my confirmation though. I've got my fingers crossed and am waiting to move the other 40% soon.