Market Poll March 21-24

**Rolo** · 03-23-2005, 02:45 AM

Skip wrote:

Look at a weekly chart and you will see a double top.... It helps to look at different time periods ...

You are sooooo correct!

Weekly doesn't look so bad now! Hopefully the downtrend slows to a stop by Thursday (I chose "about even").

03-23-2005, 02:50 AM

greg wrote:

The S&P looks like we are on the downside of a classic "Head and Shoulders" pattern. I don't think it will reach the March 7th high again this year. It will be at 1145 by mid April.

Wow, I posted this observation at 1:20 ET and the bottom falls out of the market within a hour.:P

03-23-2005, 03:11 AM

Skip wrote:

is the 1130 level its got major support there for sure.... all the way back to Sept-nov 1 levels... took forever to get over that hump....

I seethe support being at 1093 (Oct 25th) or 1062 (August 12th).

**Skip** · 03-23-2005, 03:22 AM

I use candle charts and didn't see it as clearly as with the line chart.... weekly a 2x top and daily a H&S . A double wammy for the markets..

OK when did you go short using this pattern ? There is a way to use the head and shoulder pattern and a signal can betaken from it...a pattern does no good unless you use them... Protect your capitol!!!
also from the H&S you can have a est to where the market will turn up...
about 1180 from this chart... low for yesterday was 1178 closed 1183
Today we got hit by a rate increase and a bond sell off..."so we will go even lower."...
I moved out 3/17 to 100%G 2 days late according to the h&s ,but I used a different indicator. 3/15 was the date... using the line chart...

Whats your plan to trade these markets ?

Skip

**tsptalk** · 03-23-2005, 03:38 AM

I think that is apretty weakhead and shoulders pattern but interestingly, the way to pick a downside target on a H&S is to expect a move down below the neckline as far as the head was above the neckline. The neckline is ~1200. The upside high was 1229, or 29 points. 1200 - 29 is 1171, right where the S&P closed Tuesday.

For the record I doubt that will end up being the exact low but I thought it was interesting.

**Skip** · 03-24-2005, 01:28 AM

Skip wrote:

is the 1130 level its got major support there for sure.... all the way back to Sept-nov 1 levels... took forever to get over that hump....

Greg wrote
I seethe support being at 1093 (Oct 25th) or 1062 (August 12th).

Greg I use the old tops and breakoutsfor support look at 9/13-9/21 10/1 , 11/1 they are the old ressisance levels which become the support levels when broken to the upside...

If you are going to use the fibonacci retracement levels from the last rally 10/25 to 3/7 they would be 1176.08 - 1160.12 - 1143.56 and 100% retracement to 1093.89 "your support level" oct25 bottom

We are at 1172 now and the last bottom 1163 "Jan 24 low"is very close to the 1160 retracement level which would be a 50% retracement and the most likely bottom of this pullback to keep a bull market going.... if its going to turn into a bear market then the 1143 level would be a target....

Using these support levels you can get more trades than the lows that you used.. As these support levels are a closer STOP to perserve capital"our # 1 goal" and/or to find good entry points to trade the ups and downs ...

With the BG plant exploding in Texas today we might drop another 12 points Thursday..Long weekend"good friday" Interesting .....

Good trading,
Skip