Market Talk

**Spaf** · 03-13-2005, 06:23 AM

The Kingdom of TSP for March 13 - 19

The Sunday wrap

The hills and valley: Last week periods of economic fog layered the market valley. The valley was seized and ranged by the three horsemen of energy, inflation, and rates. Their horses and axes were swift and brutal, leaving three large red candlesticks in their wake. Many have sought the safety of the high G-ground, or overseas.

Ouija board (S&P charts): In the readings, some of the indicators remained in positive ranges while prices declined. The CMF (money flow) remained positive. The RSI (strength) indicated that the market was neutral in overbought/sold. The moving averages in the MACD, though never strong, were somewhat losing ground. The S&P closed down friday in the trading range at 1200; probable support at 1184, and resistance at about 1225.

Remarks: Holding 85-15 (I-fund). Caution - Preservation is of value, while the horsemen ride the valley range. May increase overseas visit to 30, pending Monday AM news.

Attachment: S&P 500, 3mo chart with RSI and MACD,

Rgds!!

Spaf

**Rolo** · 03-13-2005, 03:32 PM

Lets hope for a higher low bounce off the 50-MA, ja?

**Spaf** · 03-13-2005, 04:01 PM

Rolo....Sounds good. S&P at 1200. 50dMA at about 1195. Support at about 1184.
We seem to be nearing that area! Need a good bullish single bar reversal.

But, I ain't making no jump till I see the water in the pool!

**Rolo** · 03-13-2005, 04:56 PM

JÃ¥, a white day on higher volume would be essential. Another black day on higher volume would be time to bail...but at what point? below 1184?

**Spaf** · 03-13-2005, 06:43 PM

Rolo wrote:

JÃ¥, a white day on higher volume would be essential. Another black day on higher volume would be time to bail...but at what point? below 1184?

Someplace between where we are at now and 1184. But this is just my guess! The problem is when you think you have it figured out a horseman shows up to say gotyah!

**Spaf** · 03-13-2005, 09:04 PM

RE: above chart

Note: since February the S&P MACD has not been as strong as compared to December. Lately, the last few days it has been slanting downward. This says "not good to me". Conversely, if you take a look at the I-fund (EFA) it's current MACD is as strong as it was in December.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=EFA&...12-9,r14&c=

**Rolo** · 03-13-2005, 09:39 PM

Good point, Spaf. Killer picture, BTW.

100%I is looking to be the way to go.

**smedlap** · 03-13-2005, 10:08 PM

Dollar will weaken again. Asian banks are widely discussing currency holding diversification. Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporton Tuesday= currency traders to preposition to short the dollar. Euro to go to 1.35 to the $ this or next week, Japan is trying tohold the peg as it holds most of our debt. Inflation fears due to weakening dollar and higher oil prices are slowing stock deposits and may keep S and C in check. I fund looks good. Still a good US economy! Remain 100% I fund.

**Wheels** · 03-13-2005, 10:20 PM

I've been 100% G for several weeks. I have been looking for an opportunity to jump back into stocks, particularly the I fund. However, the contrarian in me is a little concerned about how bullish everyone seems on the I fund. It has had a great run for a long time and everyone is jumping on board. I'm torn between wanting to jump on myself while it is steaming full ahead or staying off just before it derails.

Dave

**smedlap** · 03-13-2005, 10:43 PM

Dave, I just think G fund is too safe and gives such a small return at a time when we have agood world economic environment (less Europe). S fund and I have done well and need to recover as they are 0 gain for the year. Dollar decline favors holding I fund. Inflation fears are our current greatest concern. I believe we are OK until mid June with continued job growth and an easing of oil prices as we pull out of winter (heating oil). It's justnot the time to be too conservative in my opinion. Jun thru mid Oct, we're on vacation so I'll go to G fund then and then back in to something but I think I fund again. The S&P is projected to close at 1300 or 7 percent gain. Dollar is projected to slip 7%. The math says maybe a 14% total gain. I'll know at the end of the year when I'm either eating beans or lobster or sucking eggs. I'mplaying for the latter; remain 100% I fund as I see I and Sgenerally running togeather but I with the currency kicker. Let's see what happens Tuesday. That will be a clue. Nice evening!

**tspgo_com** · 03-13-2005, 10:55 PM

Rolo wrote:

JÃ¥, a white day on higher volume would be essential. Another black day on higher volume would be time to bail...but at what point? below 1184?

Rolo:

I would say anything below 1195 should be a clear indication to bail out.

5 - 10 Rule Position: G = 60, F=0, C=0, S=0, I=40

Short Term Outlook: We are at a crossroad that should be defined early this week. The S&P is sitting just a few points above the 1195 uptrend line. If it goes below 1195 it is likely that it would head down to the next uptrend line around 1156-1163. The long term outlook is still the same except that if the S&P breaks below 1195 it would take a little bit longer to hit the goal in the 1250+ area.

TSPGO!

**Wheels** · 03-14-2005, 12:21 AM

smedlap wrote:

S fund and I have done well and need to recover as they are 0 gain for the year.

I and Sgenerally running togeather

Actually, the S and I fund are diverging by quite a bit. They are over 5% apart in less than a quarter. Extrapolated out they could be over 20% apart by years end. I think I am done with the S fund for a while. The ten year rate is finally starting to rise and there is talk the Fed might start raising by .5%. This tells me the run for small caps may be over. The I still looks attractive but the point I was making with my post above is that EVERYONE seems to think the I is attractive which has me a little concerned. (From a contrarian point of view).

Dave