Thread: Market Talk

Posted here to bring it to the top again.

A little thing I watch:

When there is lots of posting here that is normally at a market top. When no one is posting then that is near a bottom.

Human nature - we talk when the market is going up and when she is sinking we clam up (or pucker up), as the case may be.

Lots of talking here lately (that is great). I had to go to the secondpage to get this all ready. However, that is a indicator that has worked for me in the past.

Tom would know better then I. But if it works and helps me to make money - I track it.

Hey Doc---

I was pleasantly surprised with the job report today. However it was less than the 50,000 number. How will this effect the market early next week???

Any input from anyone would be appreciated.

This is my opionion. I believe the stock guys will follow the lead of the currency traders and sell it off on Monday - which fits the pattern for the last five weeks (first trading day a blood bath). The jobs added were mainly consumtion related jobs (housing bubble). Lots of jobs adding for the rebuilding in CA due to the rains. I forgot all about that. Draughts. However, when the housing markets turns those will be the first let go. I have to read the report again but I believe 45K were temp hire jobs. Like long enough to rebuild a housing contract and lay off so they do not get benefits. Which is why the average work week went down again to 33.7.

But the biggie moving forward is the M&As job cuts. I am sure you heard over the last five weeks of the job cuts. When it starts reflecting in the job reports I am not sure. However, talking to some guys - it would not look good to establish private accounts if the market is down 20% or 30% like the P/E levels would reflect, hmm.

P/Es for taking into account the expensing of stock options and $53 crude.

Until the M&As start reflecting I want to be in G fund and not be trapped when a bad one comes in. Today would of been a good day to be in the market and I regret not being in it (however the market did react like it was a bad report, long term yields dropped, U.S. dollar got smacked and the unemployment rate went up). But normally the pink slips in the past would be handed out after the holidays and reflect in the first real (Feb) month of the year. So I would of kicked myself if the job report came in at 160-180K like I would of thought. However, I forgot about all the homes that were destoyed in CA the late part of Jan.

I cut and pasted some comments from different sources.

Businesses made more merger deals in February than any time since the bubble days of 2000, good news for broker dealers but bad news for workers.

The dollar value of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) worldwide hit $238.6 billion in February, the highest total since $286.3 billion in October 2000, banking industry research group Dealogic said.

"At the top of the market, it's really just about people trying to make 2+2 equal 5," Kelly said. "A lot of the biggest mergers conducted in the most optimistic circumstances don't enhance shareholder value that much. We don't want to see a repeat of that."

"With M&A activity picking up, productivity growth will stay robust, and that means continued new efficiencies, and a lot of that will overshadow new job creation," said Lara Rhame, senior economist with Brown Brothers Harriman.

"With M&A activity up, we're seeing more condensing of things like duplicate headquarters, banks on adjacent corners, duplicate warehouses," said Challenger, whose firm tracks job-cut announcements. "It's definitely something that's going to fuel more downsizing in 2005."

After all that excitement for the week:

NAS was up about 5 points

500 was up about a dime.

Interesting.

Dr_Dubious wrote:

After all that excitement for the week:

NAS was up about 5 points

500 was up about a dime.

Interesting.

That is a little surprising although 10 points on the S&P is pretty decent. The Nasdaq lagging is worrisome. Maybe just profit taking from prior week?

Insiders are selling in droves. All time records - even higher then Jan-Feb 2000. Just like before they are on TV saying how great things are - while dumping another 1-10M shares the same freaking day.

The mutual fund outflows have been on the negative side for the previous 19 weeks for tech funds.

Reasons: The expensing of stock options takes in effect 1 Jun. What this means is all those outstanding options will be subtracted from the bottom line...not delution of the NAVS to the shareholders by the simple printing of new stock certificates. As you know some tech companies use options to pay reduced salaries and benefits. There are over 18 tech companies (in the QQQQs) that have more options then the float. For all tech stocks there areprobably hundreds. This is a start up way of getting great talent on the cheap. Stock options and min wage (if that). My brother works for a tech companyand did not earn anything the first24 months. Not a dime. Henow has400K of options for a company that is priced around 200...so he isOK.But about 12 months in he was about ready to quit and bag groceries. They kept putting the IPO off- hint - hint .

The markets follow the NASDAQ it will drag it up or down. Most of the gain in the DOW today was XOM and Alcoa (% wise). Not actually the stocks you want to be the BIG winner since that means higher prices and less consumer pocket money moving foward. Also having the world largest company being an Oil company is like red lights in my head.

Sorry to be negative all the time but I have to call it like I see it on an economic standpoint. Something is going to break. Commodities are hitting decade highs. That is NOT good for stock prices. When we start seeing I am not sure. However the fed will just adjust the data to make things look rosy. Fuzzy math catches up to you Enron, Wordcom, Fed Mac and May Global Crossing, etc, etc. They just copied what our gov does. Amazing.

Have a great weekend, my friend.

Outstanding day for those in the stock funds. Boy, am I jealous.

New twist I have been thinking of after the fact. All funds went up 1% today by the TSP.gov site. USD index was down at my last look 0.88% and for the most part overseas indices were in the green barely, but not booming. In all actuality the I Fund components will not react to our stellar day until Sun. night/Mon. morning. So with the dollar taking the plunge could the I Fund components react negatively to the weak USD? Unless the USD rebound on Mon. this could smack the heck out of the I Fund for the close.

Point is to remember that the I Fund reacts to the international market from the night before the share price posting and the reaction of the current days USD. If the international react horribly to the USD plunge it could be an ugly Mon. close for the I Fund unless again the USD rebound greatly on Monday.

I almost pulled the trigger and got back into the I Fund today. We'll see.

Great job again to those who cashed in!

I amend my last post. Europe did have a stellar day and Asia mediocre. But even so with the USD index down .88%, the EFA up 1.75%, and Europe up big. Why only a 1% increase in the I Fund?

With this "break out" is this a primary movement or a possible extension of the trading range?

Is there a time limit to confirm a break out? Or is it just a simple break out to confirm the primary movement?

Could it been Hong Kong? I shorted that pig all last night. Thank goodness I did I got BLASTED on currency in the morning.

We could have a rally on Monday.

All the major press is saying that that since the DOW and the Transports passed their December high that was a major buy signal.

So the casino will continue on Monday.

If the market tanks on Monday I will stick my toe in. If it rallys then I will see what is leading the charge, if it is the commodities again then I will know that this is a suckers rally and wait until the trade balance report turd hits the table.

Looking forward to Sunday night to see how USD and international’s react. It will be interesting.

Can my indicator go three for three this year?

Three times we heard this - the last two times the market ended sharply lower for the week.

Strategists say U.S. stocks are poised for new gains next week after Friday's rally lifted major indexes out of a months-old trading range.