Market Weather & Tea Leaves

**Spaf** · 02-27-2005, 06:17 AM

Today-Tomorrow Stock Plan [February 27-28, 2005]

Market Behavior, and weather.

-> www.businessweek.com
-> www.reuters.com
-> www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm

Weather: Good economic data should continue the advance. A breakout >>1213 (S&P) with volume may restore the bull primary movement. Breakdown would retain trading ranges [1213-1163].

Trends, charts, and tea leaves.

-> http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/u...ml-markets.asp

Charts [WYS may or may not be WYG]: Direction was up 3 days prior, closed Friday 2 points (S&P) shy of upside range breakout. CMF money flow was strong. Moving averages were crossing bullish. PSAR indicator changed to green.

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending Friday 25th. Added: 20dMA, PSAR, RSI, and MACD.

Tea leaves: Beware of muck-et: market stuck in trading range.

Hold 'Em; Fold 'Em.

Remarks: Holding 50-50 for market signal. Caution while in trading range. Check AM for activity indicating: buy, hold, or sell.

**Spaf** · 02-28-2005, 12:55 AM

Weather Forecast addendum

1. Job growth finally taking off?
February payroll gains could exceed 200,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/stor...=&minisite=

2. The inflation factor
Nearly a dozen key reads on the economy are on tap, none more watched than the Feb. payrolls report.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/27/mark...head/index.htm

**Spaf** · 03-01-2005, 02:51 AM

Feburary 28 Closing

Weather: Squall line of bad news (tension, slumps, & sell off) delays upside breakout (of h.h: 1213).Market stays in trading range 1213 (resistance) -1164 (support),S&P.

Charts: added 1 red candlestick. Stocks opening with gap lower, keyed the decline from 1210 S&P to 1918, butrecovered to close at 1204.

Tea Leaves: Still read - Beware of muck-et: market stuck in trading range.

Remarks: Holding 50-50 neutral.

**Spaf** · 03-01-2005, 11:33 PM

March 1 Closing

Weather: Some good news today (chips, mfg., and data). Market stays near top of current trading range; S&P closing 1210, 3 points short of h.h. andresistance level.

Charts: added 1 white candlestick. Pennant forms hinting of posible breakout.

Tea Leaves: Still read - Beware of muck-et: market stuck in trading range.

Remarks: Holding 50-50 neutral.

**Spaf** · 03-03-2005, 03:50 AM

March 2 Closing

Weather: Initially looked bad, then good, but, advance spun out in oil supply data.

Charts: S&P regained 1210. Pennant holding. See addendum. (Tks. Teckno!)

Tea Leaves: Soiled by oil; re-brewing.

Remarks: Holding 25-75 moderate. Transfer depends on AM market

**Spaf** · 03-03-2005, 03:56 AM

March 2 Closing

Addendum

http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

**Mike** · 03-03-2005, 04:23 AM

The S&P hit 1215 during the day, so it has already shown it can move above the resistance. Whether it can close above it is a key question.

Good data tomorrow will trigger that, and that's what I believe we shall get.

03-03-2005, 06:29 AM

Crude, natural gas, heating oil and the metals are "HEATING UP". Actually the metals are molten right now.

I do not believe the productivity report (1.5%) will meet or beat. You will hear something like "bad weather, cold weather" or some other crap for the reason why it missed.

Intial claims - when does the m&a activity start showing up?

Mike I think you been in G so long you are getting inpatient. This may be a count to 10 thing.

Just my .02. The crude nearly 54...this may not be the time to get back in the water. **theme from Jaws here**

But just wanted to provide food for thought.

**Spaf** · 03-03-2005, 06:57 AM

Dr_Dubious wrote:

But just wanted to provide food for thought.

"No food, just the facts mam!" (Dragnet).

03-03-2005, 06:58 AM

Of course if I was that other person, "I would advise you to get back in the market now it is cheap". Did you notice whenever that person said that there was a big sell off within days.

Glad that other person left. That other person was pissing me off. :P OK you advised to buy before a sell off ok...two times..hmm, three times...shut the hell up :shock:.

03-03-2005, 07:00 AM

Spaf wrote:

Dr_Dubious wrote:

But just wanted to provide food for thought.

"No food, just the facts mam!" (Dragnet).

Spaf,

That was from Die Hard II..."Just the fax ma'am".

**Mike** · 03-03-2005, 07:10 AM

The unemployment claims chart - both for weekly and 4 week rolling averages - has a clear downward trend (fewer filings). I posted it in my account talk and will also post it here: http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calen...ses/claims.htm

Another thing I'm keeping in mind here is that the S&P hit an intraday high of 1215 - that's extremely close to the 52 week high. Good news = breakout. So-so news = resumption of the trading range, which will limit downside risk.