Thread: Today - Temporary bounce or start of a turnaround?

Signs of trouble:

Oil shot past $50 yesterday, and these spikes are well correlated with market dips if I remember a chart you posted awhile ago on this subject, Tom.

Lower high - the S&P failed to break past the December high. We've fallen ~30 points since. If we can't bust past that high sometime soon, we're looking at a trading range (best case scenario) or a bear (worst case).

Mike wrote:

Signs of trouble:

Oil shot past $50 yesterday, and these spikes are well correlated with market dips if I remember a chart you posted awhile ago on this subject, Tom.

Yeah, they said it was rising oil and the falling dollar that hurt the market tuesday but the falling dollar hasn't hurt the market the last 2 years. If anything it has helped. The market went down when the dollarstarted to rally in january. As you said, I think it's the oil.

People keep telling me I need more optimism...that I'm so negative...so I voted to the upside.

So if the market drops...screw those chipper bastards! :X

My gut is telling me that we are headed higher ..... so I voted temp bounce....we're headed lower....

I voted temporary bounce. Its all relative - how long a time frame are we using?

Bearish territory, below S&P marker of 1163 will confirm the 2nd stage of a bear market.

Trader sentiment currently: 46% bearish, 18% neutral, and 36% bullish.
System sentiment currently: 20% 63% 17%
General conditions:Cautious
Market timing:Neutral

Rgds Spaf

Today - Temporary bounce or start of a turnaround (up)?
Temp. Bounce - We're going lower
Turnaround - Low is in

I'm sorry. I must be dumb because I don't quite understand the question. Lower from what? You mean we won't go any lower in Feb? You mean will we take out the January lows? Which fund? I think...

a. We will go lower over the short term in February

b. The general trend for C fund is bullish albeit at an exceedingly slow pace. The general trend for Sfund is neutral to bearish for the next few months. The general trend for I fund is bullish but will probably be down near term.

Now, which button do I press? *LOL*

Good grief...everything was moving along fine until she showed up!





Naw, seriously, those were excellent comments. Informative and question-dodging!

I'm Confused:#.



The EAFE chart indicated that it closed in positive territory, yet the I fund got hammered.

Any input???

ou81200 wrote:

I'm Confused:#. The EAFE chart indicated that it closed in positive territory, yet the I fund got hammered. Any input???

troxel wrote:

I noticed today Feb 2 the MSCI was up +.514% however the I fund dropped -.01. How does that work.

MSCI data from http://www.msci.comand is US Dollars.

This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, in which the TSP invests, after the close of the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m., eastern time, when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days.

Thanks Saraho. I'm still learning.