Thread: The Real Employment Picture?

http://www.jobwatch.org/states/

coolhand wrote:

http://www.jobwatch.org/states/

vp's home state right??

wy. not hawaii....LOL

teknobucks wrote:

vp's home state right??

wy. not hawaii....LOL

yep....imagine that. LOL

What to know why HI and WY had job growth....drum roll please.......................service jobs....us poor Americans can not travel overseas anymore so we go to HI.....and the Asians and Euros are going to HI with their us one of ours get two of theirs currency deal....you should see the UKs shop in HI...everything is a blue light special....

WY - people are going there because of no state tax and low property take for example (where I own a ton of land :^4,800 acres - the MT be no dummy - I only play one on this board) Casper, Jackson Hole are booming with constructions jobs for rich americans to retire too in their 15M log cabins.

Mystery solved on that....

Now moving forward...all this M&A....SBC is cutting 12% of their job force...etc, etc....M&A is horrible for the economy...that is the strongest sign of a market top....the only way I can make it anymore clear is to go into your living room and smack you in the face with a snow shovel....when you see record M&A and record insider selling WE ARE AT A FREAKING MARKET TOP.

I will be on deck watching the blood bath...saying OHHHHHH THAT GOT TO HURT.

MT

Ya would of thought NV would of been on this list....NO NO NO....there are super casinos opening up in Latin America, China and Philippines, Indonesia, etc, etc...and they are doing well...or I guess I should say the stocks I own of the companies are SCREAMING.........darn we will not even be the superpower of sin anymore...

draughts we were good at something....tear in eye...

This is a structural shift in the economy. Manufacturing will hold on for awhile longer, but I think it is on the long-term decline. Other nations have the know-how and can do it cheaper, so let them. This makes the world economy more efficient overall.

The US economy will continue to transition into what it does best, which in my estimation, would be anything related to innovation/research/technological advancement. Most new drugs/treatments/technological innovations come from this country. Part of this stems from the extensive college/university system that we have, and part of it is related to the fact that we are one of the few nations in the world with the money to spend on it.

China's economy has been running hot, but it has been plagued by boom-bust cycles in the past. I don't know if they've escaped that problem yet. They also have a long-term demographic problem - their one child policy is terrible, and families obviously strongly prefer to have male children. This will come back and bite them in the ass down the line.

India has a huge population but is a very poor nation. They have a long way to go before they will become competitive economically. When people complain about being poor in this country, they have no idea what poor really is. Indian slums on the other hand... yikes. :shock:

Do you want fries with that, Sir?

That will be your childrens future....

MarketTimer wrote:

YES! and isn't that sad? I believe the smart money is out of the stocks aleady. They have already bought the real estate and if you buy now your buying inflation. I don't care how low interest is, it just raised the price of land or house. I would not borrow and buy right now as I think it will just pinch you 2 to 3 years down the road. Lenders are making low interest loans but watch out for variable interest and if you do buy lock in the rate, if you can't afford the locked rate do not buy.

Do you want fries with that, Sir?

That will be your childrens future....

cowboy wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

YES! and isn't that sad? I believe the smart money is out of the stocks aleady. They have already bought the real estate and if you buy now your buying inflation. I don't care how low interest is, it just raised the price of land or house. I would not borrow and buy right now as I think it will just pinch you 2 to 3 years down the road. Lenders are making low interest loans but watch out for variable interest and if you do buy lock in the rate, if you can't afford the locked rate do not buy.

Do you want fries with that, Sir?

That will be your childrens future....

Unfortunately, we've had a huge runup in real estate also..that will likely come crashing down as well.

Interest rates are rising...variable rates are not the way to go.

BTW, I tend to agree with 95% of what MT is telling you, but I don't think teaching is necessarily his forte...and hecould also use a six month vacation from the markets.

saraho wrote:

Unfortunately, we've had a huge runup in real estate also..that will likely come crashing down as well.

Interest rates are rising...variable rates are not the way to go.

BTW, I tend to agree with 95% of what MT is telling you, but I don't think teaching is necessarily his forte...and hecould also use a six month vacation from the markets.

There are still money to be had with real estate but you really have to know what you are doing. Right now,talk of the town is a real estate bust in 2007 and maybe even as early as 2006 based on my conversations with alot of realtors, appraisers and loan officers. I am currently on hold on buying any property at this time unless they are supercheap and can expect no less than 40-50% cash on cash return for my investment every year. I will use this time to raise cash so that I can buy property when real estate crash.Funny I am saying this but I can't wait till they crash again... This time, I will useall available cash including 50% of the TSP moneyto jump into that dip. Did well the last time butI wascash short so Ididn't really get as much profit as I wanted to.

BTW, variable rates are good for those real estate investors that are flippers or remortgage every 5-7 years. In fact, I would recommend them over fixed rate if you are into passive income. If you own a home, you are better off with fixed rate.

Asfor youGrandpa MT, I don't know what to dowith you...One day you are ok, then the following day you are "out there." Are you forgetting to take your meds again???:P

cowboy wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

YES! and isn't that sad? I believe the smart money is out of the stocks aleady. They have already bought the real estate and if you buy now your buying inflation. I don't care how low interest is, it just raised the price of land or house. I would not borrow and buy right now as I think it will just pinch you 2 to 3 years down the road. Lenders are making low interest loans but watch out for variable interest and if you do buy lock in the rate, if you can't afford the locked rate do not buy.

Do you want fries with that, Sir?

That will be your childrens future....

Now, I really have to step in because I know that you are going out of your boundary with what you really know with real estate. I think that you are a savvy investor in stock market but an amateur (at best) when it comes down to real estate. You mentioned that you own 4,800 acres in WY. Now tell me, is your acreage a liability or an asset. They are a liability because it is not putting money into your pocket. You can talk about appreciation but until that time that you start receiving money from it by either selling it or developing them, your acreage is a liability that is creating expenses for your year after year. In real estate, you don't buy property with hope. A real estate investor will buy acreage of property with a plan to either develop them or sell them straight out of profit (as soon as possible). In real estate, you only keep property if you decide that you want to get passive income from it.

Additionally, your logic concerning fixed rate vs. variable is flawed. Again, amateur real estate investor (especially those who only own their house or are renting) will probably agree with you. However for a real estate investor, variable rateis the way to go. Mind you, real estate investor will always try to get a fixed rate but will not hesitate to get a variable if the deal is good. A variable rate with a 5-7 fixed and it becomes ARMS later and mortgage for 30 years is just one example that you can do well with variable rate. Also, a good real estate investor plans to remortgage every now and then and 3-7 years is a good year to plan them. Why? Because they are free money and you never have to pay taxes for them. If you are a passive income investor, your tenant will be paying for the monthly mortgage and you get a deduction for your tax.

Pyriel



WY - people are going there because of no state tax and low property take for example (where I own a ton of land :^4,800 acres - the MT be no dummy - I only play one on this board) Casper, Jackson Hole are booming with constructions jobs for rich americans to retire too in their 15M log cabins.