No!!!!!!!!!!!!!

02-05-2005, 10:13 PM

McMagoo is making calls again....past stellar calls.....

March 1999 - Tech will lead the next decade by the QQQs.

March 2000 - Wrecked the worlds economy by playing secret squirrel with fed action (sort of like now).

March 2004 - Refinance and get a ARM mortgage (that is going to crush many folks).

June 2004 - the oil spike price is temporary

Now the icing on the cake:

Greenspan: Trade gap will narrow

McMagoo with the dollar in rally mood the last month that is not going to narrow the trade gap....believe it our next the report will be the Xmas crap coming from China....get ready for a surprise on Thursday and it will not be a pleasant one...unless you are on the other side of the fence.

Good luck and I know another stupid looking call from MT. My track record does suck :^ For some reasoning I can not get sucking out of my mind. Feel like Beetle Juice a little ancy...have a great weekend!

Should be an interesting week...still stuck on my last post - What was the positive economic data??? Work week went down, wage growth slowed, job growth slowed...OH more people drop off the rolls for unemployment benefits (that is sad actually)...the unemployment rate went down...that must be the focal point for them.

MT

**pogo** · 02-05-2005, 11:09 PM

Question: what is your opinion(on the other side of the fence) concerning the TSP funds. Would you be in C, F,S,I,or G and how muchpercentage wouldbe in those funds. Please MT a simple answers and explaination in novice terms. I'm starting to understandyou and your thinking 70 percentof the time but it' that other 30 percent that i get lost.

**Rolo** · 02-06-2005, 12:24 AM

I am just under the impression that if one preaches doom and gloom ALL the time, or "for months now" or whatever, then eventually one would be correct. Anyone can do that. Do it within a couple of weeks of it happening and then I will be impressed.

It's like the Jehovah's Witnesses calling the end of the world...1917....no, wait, 1972...no wait...1999....no, wait.....

02-06-2005, 01:08 AM

Rolo wrote:

I am just under the impression that if one preaches doom and gloom ALL the time, or "for months now" or whatever, then eventually one would be correct. Anyone can do that. Do it within a couple of weeks of it happening and then I will be impressed.

It's like the Jehovah's Witnesses calling the end of the world...1917....no, wait, 1972...no wait...1999....no, wait.....

Rolo, he's saying that this will be a horrible year. If it isn't, then he was wrong.

**vectorman** · 02-06-2005, 01:57 AM

HI, Saraho, just wondering, I know you were playing it safe with your 75 G & 25 C call.I thought you said in the past that you may put some in S fund. Why did you hold off after the dip.When you do decide to move, do you use moving averages or trends or something else? Thanks

02-06-2005, 02:26 AM

saraho wrote:

Rolo wrote:

I am just under the impression that if one preaches doom and gloom ALL the time, or "for months now" or whatever, then eventually one would be correct. Anyone can do that. Do it within a couple of weeks of it happening and then I will be impressed.

It's like the Jehovah's Witnesses calling the end of the world...1917....no, wait, 1972...no wait...1999....no, wait.....

Rolo, he's saying that this will be a horrible year. If it isn't, then he was wrong.

Actually horrible next 20 months...from point 27 to 20 months after it will be all hands on deck to watch the longs get eating by sharks...Have to us a nautical theme again...January is just the taste of the blood in the water...I am not a doom and glome guy...I am a chart and data guy...I do not hope, pray or need anything...I process the facts and go from there...

Give me three things positive about this economy right now?

When the trend is down and inflation is up and the fed is tightening...that is like being squeezed by a boa on the old earnings front....

02-06-2005, 03:52 PM

vectorman wrote:

HI, Saraho, just wondering, I know you were playing it safe with your 75 G & 25 C call.I thought you said in the past that you may put some in S fund. Why did you hold off after the dip.When you do decide to move, do you use moving averages or trends or something else? Thanks

There are several considerations, including MAs, seasonality, et.al. I may put some in the S by Tuesday... Why haven't I? Obviously, I did not expect to see as much strength in the S fund this month after the weakness shown in January. I also still expect that the C fund will begin outperforming the S by March or April. But, at this point, it has not yetcome to pass...

**cowboy** · 02-06-2005, 04:30 PM

Those right one week will be wrong tomorrow, Saraho! I look at the market as an opportunity everyday but seems I play the down better then the up.

02-06-2005, 05:13 PM

cowboy wrote:

Those right one week will be wrong tomorrow, Saraho! I look at the market as an opportunity everyday but seems I play the down better then the up.

That's precisely the reason that it's difficult to criticize others' allocations. Some, like MT, are looking at the next 24 months with respect to current allocations..and so, are generally protecting their portfolios. Others, like Tom, tend to take more of a day to day approach and attempt to "catch the waves." I see myself as somewhere between the two.

**pyriel** · 02-06-2005, 06:06 PM

saraho wrote:

cowboy wrote:

Those right one week will be wrong tomorrow, Saraho! I look at the market as an opportunity everyday but seems I play the down better then the up.

That's precisely the reason that it's difficult to criticize others' allocations. Some, like MT, are looking at the next 24 months with respect to current allocations..and so, are generally protecting their portfolios. Others, like Tom, tend to take more of a day to day approach and attempt to "catch the waves." I see myself as somewhere between the two.

Totally agree. Some people made money while the market was down last month (I lost huhuhu

) A 20 month span is not acceptable here because with what I am seeing (except for some like you), people move their allocations all the time and they are actually gaining grounds on the money they lost in January (me too

)...