Market Talk

**Spaf** · 01-30-2005, 10:13 PM

Last week ended slightly up, however see-sawing up and down. Market timing is unclear, and even slightly negative. A lot of the recommendations show a hold, and short term trends indicates a sell (S&P 500). The majority of equities are not particiating in a movement to advance. Money flow indicators (CMF) for last week were strongly negative, between -0.2 to -0.3.

One analysis indicated that this week could be up, because of the good earnings reports, and the market was firming up. This could produce a strong ralley, but it wasen't their call. Ifstrong support developed into future gains, the market could shift out of neutral.

MHO: The market is a gamble at present, till a primary movement is re-established (bull or bear).

Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 for the last 3 months with a 50 day moving average and a MACD plot (moving average convergence divergence).

Rgds, and be careful!

Spaf

**teknobucks** · 01-30-2005, 11:14 PM

looks like a cup and handle Spaf!

also OPEC could be in trouble with the U.S. OPEC wants oil to be at about $50 a barrel. I don't think they willget it right now.

Let us drill Alaska and let China pay OPEC's price for oil.

http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/013005/sta_20050129016.shtml
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/01/21/alaska.oil.ap/

**teknobucks** · 01-30-2005, 11:32 PM

PLUS!

i see a failed attempt for crude to make a new high at just over $50. No one will want oil as the seasons are changing in the U.S. and Iraq is becoming a free nation and friend of the U.S. Elections appear to be a major victory 4 dubya and the iraqi people.

Oil is coming down.

and the equities will roar upwards!!!!:^

JMHO
tekno

**teknobucks** · 01-30-2005, 11:38 PM

Japan opens @7pm and if theymay not join our glee club.

Many times the "US" see things different than the rest of the world...LOL...

News out of Japan today (Monday there)...

>> Toshiba Sees 8% Drop In Operating Profit On Sinking Chip Prices <<:X

01-31-2005, 01:11 AM

Mr Bucks,

OPEC did not cut production...because freaking oil is $50 a freaking barrel.

If oil was at $40 they would of cut production...there target is around $45 a barrel.

Do not be misled everytime oil has been at this level we have gone into recession...PEs are based on $30 oil and Greenspam is using $25 a barrel for their data...why because that holds SS increases down and in effect helps the deficiet.

It is going to get real ugly out there...but those who know how to invest on the other side are making tons...I am up 27% so far this year...

I think I should be able to beat the S&P by 5 points :^(max bonus).

See ya.

MT

**teknobucks** · 01-31-2005, 01:44 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

Mr Bucks,

OPEC did not cut production...because freaking oil is $50 a freaking barrel.

If oil was at $40 they would of cut production...there target is around $45 a barrel.

*****really...they just announced that 50 bucks per barrel was their target. who said they cut anything? they simply wish 2 hold a 50buck/barrel level.

Do not be misled everytime oil has been at this level we have gone into recession...PEs are based on $30 oil and Greenspam is using $25 a barrel for their data...why because that holds SS increases down and in effect helps the deficiet.

*****AG does not even care what OPEC does now...LOL. he has allied himself with dubya therefore his two major concerns are 1) why andrea mitchellhis liberal wife makes him sleep alone and ride in the trunk and 2) if this fiat dollar policy blows up in disaster how history will remember him.

It is going to get real ugly out there...but those who know how to invest on the other side are making tons...I am up 27% so far this year...

*****going to get ugly...where were u in jan. 2005 pal. oh i forgot "UP 27% in one month"...the worst month since 2000...LMAO

I think I should be able to beat the S&P by 5 points :^ (max bonus).

*****quit now take the 27% and beat her by much more.....:shock:

See ya.

****where??

MT

01-31-2005, 03:14 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

Mr Bucks,

OPEC did not cut production...because freaking oil is $50 a freaking barrel.

If oil was at $40 they would of cut production...there target is around $45 a barrel.

It is going to get real ugly out there...but those who know how to invest on the other side are making tons...I am up 27% so far this year...

I think I should be able to beat the S&P by 5 points :^ (max bonus).

See ya.

MT

Why is this guy still here? Market must be getting ready to go up. From what I've seen, he shows up when market is going up to scare people into hedge funds. Glad I'll be 100% stocks this week.

You'll be in stocks the week of halloween right?

**Citizen** · 01-31-2005, 04:47 AM

I'm beating the S&P this year. I've lost just under 2% since Dec 30th.

**Spaf** · 01-31-2005, 05:22 AM

Citizen.......Most stops are at 10% when there is a decline. Your 2% is beating the stops. No one can forecast the market, we can only play movements. Right now we don't have a clear primary movement. Recent charts indicate a negative money flow. It's murkey, it's wait and see.

The 1-2 day transfer time for TSP can causetail chasing!

Rgds, hoping themarket will turn bullish!

Spaf

**Mike** · 01-31-2005, 06:09 AM

Futures markets are up pretty strongly right now, so it looks like we'll have a higher open in the morning.

Hong Kong and Japan are up pretty strongly right now as well.

01-31-2005, 07:31 AM

tsptorture wrote:

Why is this guy still here? Market must be getting ready to go up. From what I've seen, he shows up when market is going up to scare people into hedge funds. Glad I'll be 100% stocks this week.

You'll be in stocks the week of halloween right?

Do not think there are many people on this board that can make the $100M mimimum to invest in the fund....the people I manage money for are in silver, gold, Australian/New Zealand dollar. There is NO value in the U.S. stock market...it was one of the worsemarkerts in 2004 and that will continue. The Dow was up 4% last year....YAWN.

Good luck out there. I am just trying to provide data tothe hard workingTSP folks.

01-31-2005, 07:37 AM

Sell into any rally...

I said they market was going to crater after the New Year in August 2004 when I started on this board...I was told I was NUTS. Now the naysayers....with their outstanding one line comments. Losing money hurts...take action.

Once again in a couple weeks you will see I was right again and still be in denial.

Do not be a deer in the headlights that can not make a move.

The problem here is the greed, year 2000 factor. If I get out of the market I am going to lose money....well wise guy...you are losing money staying in.

Good luck out there.

OPEC has a target between 45-50 a barrel Mr Bucks. Not to bad when you figure it costs them about .50 a barrel to get out of the ground with their $1.00 a day labor costs - steep overhead there!

:P