Thread: Market Talk

Futures are up across the board.......

But will the euphoria over the election be counterbalanced by this?

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/30/iraq.audit/index.html

[size=3]Jan 31 EVENTS:

SYMBOL COMPANY EVENT TITLE WEBCAST TRANSCRIPT/BRIEF TIME (ET)
DIS Walt Disney Q1 2005 Walt Disney Earnings Conference Call 4:30 PM
WYE WYETH Q4 2004 WYETH Earnings Conference Call 8:00 AM
XOM ExxonMobil Corporation Q4 2004 ExxonMobil Corporation Earnings Conference Call 11:00 AM
EK Eastman Kodak Company Eastman Kodak Company Conference Call 11:00 AM
HLT Hilton Hotels Corporation Q4 2004 Hilton Hotels Corporation Earnings Conference Call 12:00 PM
MWV MeadWestvaco Q4 2004 MeadWestvaco Earnings Conference Call 10:00 AM


31. JAN. 2005 Today´s Highlighted Earnings Releases

SYMBOL COMPANY PERIOD EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL DATE/TIME (ET)
DIS Walt Disney Q1 2005 $ 0.29 n/a $ 0.33 31-Jan AMC
WYE WYETH Q4 2004 $ 0.67 n/a $ 0.60 31-Jan BMO
XOM ExxonMobil Corporation Q4 2004 $ 1.07 n/a $ 0.68 31-Jan
HLT Hilton Hotels Corporation Q4 2004 $ 0.16 n/a $ 0.11 31-Jan BMO
STA St. Paul Travelers Q4 2004 $ 1.07 n/a $ 0.02 31-Jan AMC
MWV MeadWestvaco Q4 2004 $ 0.22 n/a $ 0.00 31-Jan BMO


31. JAN. 2005 Today´s Highlighted Splits

SYMBOL COMPANY RATIO EX-DATE PAYABLE RECORD DECLARATION
CSFM.PK CASH 4 PPTYS 247 10-1 1-Feb 31-Jan 17-Jan
CVCO CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. 2-1 1-Feb 31-Jan 18-Jan 6-Jan


31. JAN. 2005 Today´s Highlighted IPOs

There are no highlighted events to display.

31. JAN. 2005 Today´s Highlighted Dividends

SYMBOL COMPANY AMOUNT EX-DATE PAYABLE RECORD DECLARATION
CYN City National Corporation $0.360 31-Jan 15-Feb 2-Feb 19-Jan
ATR AptarGroup $0.150 31-Jan 24-Feb 2-Feb 20-Jan
BAC-Y BAC CAPITAL TRUST V $0.375 31-Jan 3-Feb 2-Feb 23-Nov
OCNB Bridge Street Financial, Inc. $0.070 31-Jan 22-Feb 2-Feb 20-Jan
BRO Brown & Brown $0.080 31-Jan 16-Feb 2-Feb 19-Jan
CPI Capital Properties $0.030 31-Jan 16-Feb 2-Feb 25-Jan


31. JAN. 2005 Today´s Highlighted Economic Events

EVENT/INDICATOR(S) TIME (ET) PERIOD CONSENSUS ESTIMATE ACTUAL +/-
US - Personal Income and Outlays (Dec, 2004) 8:30 AM Dec, 2004
Personal Income, M/M change 3.5 %

US - New Home Sales (Dec, 2004) 10:00 AM Dec, 2004
New Home Sales, Level, SAAR 1,200,000

US - NAPM-Chicago (Jan, 2005) 10:00 AM Jan, 2005
Business Barometer Index, Level 59.5

US - Farm Prices (Jan, 2005) 3:00 PM Jan, 2005

Economic Forum: Dollar hasn't hit bottom yet
Bush administration draws criticism for allowing currency to decline
By Christopher Noble, Market Watch
Last Update: 11:49 AM ET Jan. 30, 2005


DAVOS, Switzerland (Market Watch) -- Look out below.

That appeared to be the consensus about the U.S. dollar's future among many of the participants leaving this small Alpine ski resort at the end of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting.

U.S. corporate leaders, academics and some policy makers warned of further declines for the battered greenback, though none predicted a sudden, uncontrolled fall that could lead to a currency crisis and recession.

"The U.S. dollar is no longer a stable currency, it's devaluing all the time," said Fan Gang, Director of China's National Economic Research Institute, China Reform Foundation.

The expectation that the dollar will fall more was likely to be a source of tension at the meeting in London this week between the United States and its chief economic partners in the Group of Seven (G7) rich countries.

G7 members including Britain, France and Germany have sharply criticized Washington for not doing more to reverse the dollar's decline against the major currencies.

"The sharp moves upward of the euro were unwelcome," European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Saturday, adding that the dollar's weakness was "counterproductive on economic growth".

The mood surrounding the dollar was so bleak that U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs John Taylor was moved to tell reporters that he saw no reason for a dollar crash.

"There is nothing in play here except some good, sensible policies ... so I see no reason for that," Taylor was quoted as saying by Reuters.

The twin budget and trade deficits, and the perception that the Bush administration is willing to tolerate a weaker dollar have helped undermine the currency, which has fallen steadily over the last three years. The drop has caused some to lose confidence in the dollar and raised fears that foreign investors, whose money is needed to finance the deficits, may slow their contributions.

Evidence of this loss of confidence was revealed in a survey of central bankers released last week, which showed that many had cut their level of dollar reserves in favor of euros over the last two years. The survey was carried out by Central Banking Publications.

Still more evidence of the lack of confidence in the dollar came from Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp. and the world's richest man, who said on Friday night he was betting the dollar would fall more.

"I'm short the dollar," Gates said in an interview held in front of an audience of about 200. "The old dollar, it's going to go down."

Deficits weigh

A narrowing of the trade gap is seen by many as a crucial step to restoring confidence in the dollar and helping it reverse at least some of its recent declines.

Taylor and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick sought to reassure participants that the United States wanted to cut the gap, adding that the international community should help by boosting growth in their own economies. They also repeated calls for China to let its currency rise against the dollar, which would be another way to cut the trade deficit.

But on the second front at least, Washington got some bad news on Saturday.

Huang Ju, executive vice-premier of China, said Beijing needed to reform its banking sector and work on opening its markets before it changed its current policy of pegging the yuan to the dollar at a fixed rate.

"We have no specific timetable" to change foreign exchange policy, Huang told the conference.

The comment was a blow to Western countries, which for over a year have been putting pressure on Beijing to revalue its currency and had hoped that progress could be made at the G7 meeting that begins Friday in London.

The other way the United States could help the dollar would be to cut its budget deficit, which would help restore confidence in the solidity of the currency.

The Bush administration has pledged to halve the deficit over the next four years, but with an expensive agenda of tax and social security reforms and the war in Iraq it is not clear they can live up to that promise.

Right now the budget shortfall is expected to hit $368 billion in 2005 after $412 billion last year. The 2005 forecast excludes about $100 billion in spending on the war in Iraq and fighting in Afghanistan.

Despite the expectations of more declines for the dollar, the foreign exchange markets appeared to take the developments in stride. The dollar was trading at about 1.304 euros on Sunday in Davos, compared to 1.3078 on Wednesday, when the meeting started.

And despite the public pronouncements on the dollar's future weakness, there was evidence that some major corporations were budgeting for a dollar that remained stable or declined only modestly.

For instance, Henning Kagermann, the chief executive of German software giant SAP, said his company was budgeting for a dollar at about 1.30 euros in 2005. And Maurice Levy, chief executive of international advertising leader Publicis, said his company budgeted for a dollar at 1.32 euros.

"Maybe that is a little bit pessimistic, maybe it is a bit optimistic, I don't know, but that is where we put it," Levy said.


Christopher Noble is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Mike wrote:

I don't appreciate the insults there, MT, but thanks for the lack of maturity.

If you read what I linked to, it clearly states that dividends and TSP management fees ARE included in the percentage return.

I'll let the data speak for itself here, since the truth is on my side.

As we say in Ozzy...no worries.

If you add up the 12 columns for the last 12 months return...it does not equal 10.82%. If they can not add up 12 columns correctly...what does that tell you???

Also including the dividend in the share price is not a dividend. You need the reinvested shares to lower your dollar cost average.

Their calculations are prior to management fees.

Good luck with your investments.

Tekno,

Between Gates, Rogers and Buffett there is over a 30B short on the U.S. dollar.

Would not want to go against that crowd and jump on board with them.

Foreign central banks will not continue to take billions of dollar in losses due to currency conversion by holding U.S. dollars. Once the selling starts the snowball will continue...just like 1987 when the S&P 500 fell over 25% in two days.

Build cash positions, look at buying silver and get out of stocks. If you know how to short...clip the wings of last years high flyers, x energy.

Nit pik me all you want...just do not be a deer in the highlights and let your investments fall 30% (which is the average lose) for a domed house top.

GDP is under inflation. Look out below.

Good luck out there.

MT

MarketTimer wrote:

Tekno,

Between Gates, Rogers and Buffett there is over a 30B short on the U.S. dollar.

Would not want to go against that crowd and jump on board with them.

Foreign central banks will not continue to take billions of dollar in losses due to currency conversion by holding U.S. dollars. Once the selling starts the snowball will continue...just like 1987 when the S&P 500 fell over 25% in two days.

Build cash positions, look at buying silver and get out of stocks. If you know how to short...clip the wings of last years high flyers, x energy.

Nit pik me all you want...just do not be a deer in the highlights and let your investments fall 30% (which is the average lose) for a domed house top.

GDP is under inflation. Look out below.

Good luck out there.

MT

I agree that the dollar is crumbling, andI also hold silver. But you don't explainwhy the I fund should be abandoned in your scenario. IMHO, unless we have a worldwide recession, the I fund should fair well this year...

Thekno,

Oooo mmmmyyyy God! The funpic link killed me.

MarketTimer,

1. Post any kind of moves you make to validate your claims.

2. Quit patting your self on the back so much. Humility is more accepted that a braggart.

3. Leave the sarcasm at the office. No one likes it. Unless your trying to provoke something like with M_M.

4. Quit insulting people because they challenge your opinions. Makes you sound very condescending.

Most important. Just because we or I don’t follow your moves and reinforce your ego doesn't mean we are ignoring your posts. We are individuals with our own minds and will make the best decisions we can for our money. Right, wrong, or otherwise.

To make the decision easier leave out the crap a stick to facts. Too much reading.

MT,

I really admire your knowledge about stocks and the market but you need to stop what you are doing. I will have to agree with showme onthis. Show your moves or if you are not going to do that, at least be civil with other people.

Pyriel

I had been looking at 1163 as a must hold low, and a move over 1180 as a sign of a possible bottom. Friday nearly took out 1163 on the downside, but it held. Right now 1180 has been resistance as today's high hit 1180 and retreated some.

I am stumped for the short term. It remains to be seen if this is a real rally of just a knee-jerk reaction to the election. I will remain 60% G, 40% C for now and see what happens. If we go over 1180 by the end of the day, which could happen, it puts a hurt into this allocation. I'm getting whipsawed pretty badly.

Good luck in your decisions.

tsptalk wrote:

I am stumped for the short term. It remains to be seen if this is a real rally of just a knee-jerk reaction to the election.

The fear was over done and the negative money flow was excessive. Everything kind of went tothe far side.

Todays rally, if it holds, could be some support for the market to bounce off the bottom. Not to lose a limb in another whipsaw. I'll stick a finger in at 60%G and 40%Stocks.