Market Talk

**Spaf** · 01-23-2005, 08:30 PM

So far this year the market has had 9 down days and 5 up days. The last 3 days were unfortunately down. On the correction the down turn has been extended. The head fake rally to 1195 gave a daily fluctuation to a possible lower high, maybe, maybe not. It's too cloudy to tell what the primary movement of the market will be for the near future (bear or bull). However, the money flow indicators are in the minus column for the S&P.

Attachment: 6mo chart for the S&P

Rgds

Spaf

**coolhand** · 01-23-2005, 09:35 PM

Thanks for the new chart Spaf! Welcome back MT!

Okay, I'm ready for a bounce. We've been beat up enough this month already.

**pyriel** · 01-23-2005, 11:39 PM

Same here but when? This week's outlook is so hazy that I don't know of anyone willing to speculate at this point.

**learning** · 01-23-2005, 11:40 PM

I do not know or I would be a Billionnaire by now. With that said. I suspect the market will take a hit Thursday or Friday. I know, I know, with this market that is not much of a prediction.:l There is a reason. Iraq election. If it goes well the market may very easly take off. The election goes well people may say there is light at the end of the tunnel. Let us hope. It would be nice to have the bull back.:P If we do not get a turn around then the BEAR MAY COME INTO OUR CAMP.:X There is some money in bears though. If you can hunt and skin them.

**coolhand** · 01-24-2005, 12:50 AM

Keep in mind that Iraq only has an interim government at the present. That interim government is not elected by the Iraqi people per se. Even if the election appears to go off well, that does not preclude the terrorists from continuing to battle. In fact I'm am more than certain they won't quit.

Once the new government is in placethey will almost certainly move to try and crush this opposition. How ugly might this be? Who knows. Point is Iraq needs to establishcontrol as quickly as possible in order to gain some measure of security for its people and its elected officials.

I think the current PM is the favorite to win, but I'm not sure. I've read that he is not happy with some of his neighbors at the moment (Syria and Iran). That's another situation that needs to be addressed.

This situation may continue to be volatile for some time after election. I hope that is not the case and I wish our troops well. We need them home as soon as possible. That would do a whole lot for our spirits and oureconomy.

**coolhand** · 01-24-2005, 11:28 AM

something else to think about.

http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---Do..._10062744.html

**learning** · 01-24-2005, 08:13 PM

coolhand wrote:

"This situation may continue to be volatile for some time after election. I hope that is not the case and I wish our troops well. We need them home as soon as possible. That would do a whole lot for our spirits"

Ohh yes, I agree that there will be a lot of violence. I also believe that there may even be an increase in violence. What needs to happen though is an election that is somewhat believed to be a fair one by the world. Yes, Yes, I know there are long time friends like France, (cough, cough, choke), that only have the people in Iraq's borders best interest at heart, (hmmmmm, mumble under breath). (Nothing to do with the money they were and are afraid of losing. Sure, rights say it enough and some ...... person may even believe it.) Point is this. If a lot of the polls or a lot of ballots are destroyed, etc.... That could hurt the market.

As for our troops- Yes, Lord willing they will be home soon. It will never soon enough. I do suspect that we will have many over there for years to come. When they return it will lift my sprits.:^

**Skip** · 01-25-2005, 03:02 AM

Here's Skip's Option...

The s fund "wilshire 4500"has been setting on the 33.33 fibonacci retracement level since 1/5 and has broken to the lower side.... this is using the Oct 04 low.. I think we will at least test the 50% retracement level at 472 "this would still be a bullish retracement if we don't go below50% level..... If we use the Aug04 low we would be looking at 467.33 at 50% level...

The sp500 has also broken the 33.33 level and the oct 50% level would be 1154
and the aug04 low it would be 1140 ....
I would be a buyer at the 1140 level... For the ws4500 I would be in at 440
100% g now and waiting.

I do believe we will go lower than 50% and that will be bearish....
Buy the support levels and sell the resistance is the plan for 05....
as we can make money in a down market also...
I tried to post a chart but my charts areover limitfor the upload.

JMHO
Skip

**tsptalk** · 01-25-2005, 04:28 AM

Skip wrote:

I do believe we will go lower than 50% and that will be bearish....

Why do think it will go down so much Skip?

**teknobucks** · 01-25-2005, 10:18 AM

well i'm taking my chips to the cashier......going 80 g 20 i.

nuthin bullish 2 say here.:s

http://tinyurl.com/683d7

these darn charts can say anything u want them 2.....look at this:

clear market longforecast.....

http://chart.tradesignal.com/chartheft/image.asp?id=1203315&w=950&h=550&t=1

bottom line is the street is bloody and we may very well see a lot more before thisis over!!!!

stated over the last few weeks why i was concerned, and have been told how wrong i was.:%

eluded to my escape plans from my long tsp positions and took no action.... my procrastination has cost me over 15k in jan 05.:*:dah::'

tekno

**teknobucks** · 01-25-2005, 10:26 AM

congrats to those hiding in the G!:u

skip and the others with large portions in the G......u were right on the money! :^

tekno

**Show-me** · 01-25-2005, 01:57 PM

Part of my decision was based on the "many" great link's and articles you posted.

Robert Morrow's interview push me over the edge. Will be monitoring NBR more often.

Thank you Tekno.