Very true that people cannot pick a top and bottom. For example, I know many of the "top timers" got back in last week- at the same area they went to cash a month ago- missing the gains off the 'bottom of the correction'.
The whole point of timing the market is to be out during the big drawdowns without regard to trading or tax costs.
The whole point to buy and hold is to use weakness or regular contributions to build a position over many years.
I kept 20% in stocks because I'm not smart enough to call a top and have yet to find someone that can. Keeping 20% in is good enough to catch a wave if one forms from here and I'm still debating whether to go 100% cash position or not. I like the idea of keeping some in the game.
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