response to norman

**steve d** · 12-21-2009, 08:16 PM

norman.thanks for responding.i have some systems i want to test . one of them is based on the principle that all bear markets must eventually end, due to a shortage of sellers.the big question is how long will it last ? i would like to have a programmer test the factor of buying a divesified group of commodities that have all declined in price 20% - 30% -40%-50%-60% and holding them for 60 day- 90 - 120 -180 periods.each percentage grorp would be tested independltly . this could possibly be enhanced by only buying those commodities that are more essential such as corn wheat or soybeans.my intuition tells me that you and the majority of this group are well educated, very technical investors.this is most likely too low tech for most people, i like thei idea of buying good stocks that have declined at least 50% and are out of favor.the value of all information is inversely proportional.the risk can be moderate or high, but most important the rewards seem to be disproportionally higher also, good luck everyone1

**steve d** · 12-21-2009, 08:32 PM

how do i correct a misteake on my first thread/

**nnuut** · 12-21-2009, 08:36 PM

Originally Posted by steve d

norman.thanks for responding.i have some systems i want to test . one of them is based on the principle that all bear markets must eventually end, due to a shortage of sellers.the big question is how long will it last ? i would like to have a programmer test the factor of buying a divesified group of commodities that have all declined in price 20% - 30% -40%-50%-60% and holding them for 60 day- 90 - 120 -180 periods.each percentage grorp would be tested independltly . this could possibly be enhanced by only buying those commodities that are more essential such as corn wheat or soybeans.my intuition tells me that you and the majority of this group are well educated, very technical investors.this is most likely too low tech for most people, i like thei idea of buying good stocks that have declined at least 50% and are out of favor.the value of all information is inversely proportional.the risk can be moderate or high, but most important the rewards seem to be disproportionally higher also, good luck everyone1

OH!! Buy low sell HIGH, that's the idea!! That is the way to do it, but finding the bottom is the hardest part. If you can predict, by some method when and if we will come out of the Doldrums then you have a shot. If I were you I would give it a shot, develop a system to track the stocks that meet your criteria and analyze their progress. If you can find a program that will let you BACK TEST your theory that would be a way of confirming your possibility of validating your system. There are sites on line that offer offer Back testing of investments but they usually charge a fee. Find a way, you never know what you Can come up with unless you try, but don't waste your good money trying to prove a theory, prove it first. I'm sure there are members on the Board that know more about this than I do, I'm sure you will get more responses to your post.
Best of luck
Norman