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  1. A day late and a dollar short

    by , 11-19-2008 at 11:06 PM (TSP Talk Blog)
    This is a tough commentary to write as I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The carnage continues and the TSP limits and deadlines are adding to the pain.

    I did not like the action but I wanted to wait until Thursday (IFT on Wednesday morning) to get back into the G-fund after a short stint in the stock funds. Tuesday was OK, as the S&P finished higher. I received my IFT confirmation and it said I made my transfer at 10:22 AM on Wednesday. At the time, the S&P 500 was flirting
    ...
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  2. Is my own fear justified, or too intense?

    by , 11-19-2008 at 08:49 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    The market's action lately has me close to the peak of fear. I know that when my level of fear rises, I should be prepared to think like a contrarian because my instincts, like the rest of the "dumb money", are usually wrong near market extremes.

    The S&P 500 is playing with that 840 area that is basically a make or break level for the short-term, and possibly the intermediate-term. If it holds above it, we could see a decent rally. If it breaks below, it could be "look ...
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  3. Now or never

    by , 11-18-2008 at 08:54 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    When I see a daily return in the stock market with a "1" in front of it these days, it almost seems like it was a flat day. The S and I funds lost "only 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. The C fund was down 2.6%. Of course a 1% move used to be considered large, but not in this market environment.

    The S&P 500 dropped below that 866 level I would have liked to have seen it hold. The reason I was watching the 866 area was because it was the 50% retracement of Thursday's ...
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  4. Rally fails quickly, but technically still OK

    by , 11-16-2008 at 09:15 PM (TSP Talk Blog)
    Stocks could not follow-through on Friday after Thursday's big reversal day, as the Dow gave back 338 of Thursday's 553-point gain. The TSP stock funds dropped between 4% and 5.6%, which is really amazing, but quite routine lately.

    If there is any bright spot, the market gave back less than 50% of Thursday's trough to peak rally. This can be considered a technical retracement and if the market can hold up well this morning, we could see the rally resume.

    Here's what ...
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Bonds (F fund)
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1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y