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  1. When will the bear market be over?

    Stocks rallied again on Friday making Thanksgiving week one of the most bullish weeks in many, many years. We know bear markets can have explosive rallies. So, is that what this was, or is the bottom in?

    There are many things lining up suggesting that this market may have put in a bottom, but we are in a bear market and we have absolutely no proof that the bear market is over. That means we are also still in a "sell the rallies" mode until something tells us otherwise. The ...
  2. Can holiday rally continue next week?

    Stocks continue to climb as the C and S-funds put up some huge numbers again on Wednesday as the pre-holiday seasonality strength did not disappoint. Will the post-Thanksgiving Day seasonal strength be able to penetrate resistance?

    Seasonality says today should be a good one as well, but the S&P 500 has now moved up to the top of the descending bear trend line, so it will be interesting to see if this rally can continue. Today's volume will be very light (see the 2007 post T-Day ...
  3. Indecisive, but Buoyant

    Stocks had a difficult time choosing a direction yesterday, but it was one of those games where the last one with the ball was going to win - and yesterday, that was the bulls.

    The stocks funds had one of their more calmer days, but the S-fund did manage a 2% gain. In a "normal" world, 2% is usually a huge one day gain. Not so in this quarter. The bond fund finally saw a nice move higher as long term yields ...
  4. Bear market rally


    Stocks followed through on Friday's big reversal day by tacking on 6% to 7% gains across the board. The swings continue to be wild and the light volume trading coming later this holiday week could keep volatility on the high side.

    The trouble for stocks now is that they have not had much success during this bear market after two or three big up days. The good news for stocks is that Wednesday and Thursday of this week are historically
  5. Seasonality, sentiment, and oversold

    The market... terrible. Economy... a mess. Sentiment... woeful. Maybe that means it's time for a little rally?

    After Wednesday and Thursday's drubbing, stocks put together a huge rally in the last hour of trading on Friday after Obama selected Timothy Geithner as the new Treasury Secretary.

    In a normal market environment, these type of Friday afternoon reversals tend to carry into Monday morning, but ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)