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  1. Bear market rally

    by , 11-25-2008 at 04:08 PM (TSP Talk Blog)
    From www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

    Stocks followed through on Friday's big reversal day by tacking on 6% to 7% gains across the board. The swings continue to be wild and the light volume trading coming later this holiday week could keep volatility on the high side.


    The trouble for stocks now is that they have not had much success during this bear market after two or three big up days. The good news for stocks is that Wednesday and Thursday of this week are historically
    ...
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  2. Seasonality, sentiment, and oversold

    by , 11-24-2008 at 12:16 PM (TSP Talk Blog)
    The market... terrible. Economy... a mess. Sentiment... woeful. Maybe that means it's time for a little rally?

    After Wednesday and Thursday's drubbing, stocks put together a huge rally in the last hour of trading on Friday after Obama selected Timothy Geithner as the new Treasury Secretary.



    In a normal market environment, these type of Friday afternoon reversals tend to carry into Monday morning, but ...
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  3. TGIF

    by , 11-21-2008 at 10:50 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    Wow! Not much more to say. Just, wow! OK, see you Monday...

    Still here? Alright, lets talk about the carnage. I'm guessing that if you are still reading these commentaries that you may have had some money in the G or F funds as anyone who has taken the full brunt of this market collapse in 2008, probably has something better to do on a Friday than talk about it.

    Another 5.1% to 7.5% declines in the stock funds. The L2040-fund is now down about 43%. There haven't been ...
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  4. A day late and a dollar short

    by , 11-20-2008 at 12:06 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    This is a tough commentary to write as I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The carnage continues and the TSP limits and deadlines are adding to the pain.

    I did not like the action but I wanted to wait until Thursday (IFT on Wednesday morning) to get back into the G-fund after a short stint in the stock funds. Tuesday was OK, as the S&P finished higher. I received my IFT confirmation and it said I made my transfer at 10:22 AM on Wednesday. At the time, the S&P 500 was flirting
    ...
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  5. Is my own fear justified, or too intense?

    by , 11-19-2008 at 09:49 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    The market's action lately has me close to the peak of fear. I know that when my level of fear rises, I should be prepared to think like a contrarian because my instincts, like the rest of the "dumb money", are usually wrong near market extremes.

    The S&P 500 is playing with that 840 area that is basically a make or break level for the short-term, and possibly the intermediate-term. If it holds above it, we could see a decent rally. If it breaks below, it could be "look ...
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