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  1. Seasonality, sentiment, and oversold

    by , 11-24-2008 at 11:16 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    The market... terrible. Economy... a mess. Sentiment... woeful. Maybe that means it's time for a little rally?

    After Wednesday and Thursday's drubbing, stocks put together a huge rally in the last hour of trading on Friday after Obama selected Timothy Geithner as the new Treasury Secretary.



    In a normal market environment, these type of Friday afternoon reversals tend to carry into Monday morning, but ...
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  2. TGIF

    by , 11-21-2008 at 09:50 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    Wow! Not much more to say. Just, wow! OK, see you Monday...

    Still here? Alright, lets talk about the carnage. I'm guessing that if you are still reading these commentaries that you may have had some money in the G or F funds as anyone who has taken the full brunt of this market collapse in 2008, probably has something better to do on a Friday than talk about it.

    Another 5.1% to 7.5% declines in the stock funds. The L2040-fund is now down about 43%. There haven't been ...
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  3. A day late and a dollar short

    by , 11-19-2008 at 11:06 PM (TSP Talk Blog)
    This is a tough commentary to write as I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The carnage continues and the TSP limits and deadlines are adding to the pain.

    I did not like the action but I wanted to wait until Thursday (IFT on Wednesday morning) to get back into the G-fund after a short stint in the stock funds. Tuesday was OK, as the S&P finished higher. I received my IFT confirmation and it said I made my transfer at 10:22 AM on Wednesday. At the time, the S&P 500 was flirting
    ...
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  4. Is my own fear justified, or too intense?

    by , 11-19-2008 at 08:49 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    The market's action lately has me close to the peak of fear. I know that when my level of fear rises, I should be prepared to think like a contrarian because my instincts, like the rest of the "dumb money", are usually wrong near market extremes.

    The S&P 500 is playing with that 840 area that is basically a make or break level for the short-term, and possibly the intermediate-term. If it holds above it, we could see a decent rally. If it breaks below, it could be "look ...
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  5. Now or never

    by , 11-18-2008 at 08:54 AM (TSP Talk Blog)
    When I see a daily return in the stock market with a "1" in front of it these days, it almost seems like it was a flat day. The S and I funds lost "only 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. The C fund was down 2.6%. Of course a 1% move used to be considered large, but not in this market environment.

    The S&P 500 dropped below that 866 level I would have liked to have seen it hold. The reason I was watching the 866 area was because it was the 50% retracement of Thursday's ...
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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Bonds (F fund)
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