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  1. Are stocks cheap now?

    Stocks rounded strongly yesterday as the TSP funds made back 4% to 5%, not quite half, of Monday's pillage and plundering of the market. The moves continue to be wild and the trend is certainly still down, but that intermediate-term trend will be tested sooner rather than later.

    The S&P 500 rebounded but did not quite make it back to the 20-day moving average, and it is about 3% below the resistance from the top of the declining trading channel, so the test of the downtrend will ...
  2. "Why didn't my account balance move higher last week?"

    Stocks were hit hard once again yesterday, giving back much of the gains made during the Thanksgiving week rally. I hope this scenario is now etched in your mind - holiday trading on light volume can reverse very quickly after the holiday.

    Last Tuesday we said:

    "This market is not out of the woods yet by any means, but the powers that be are going to milk this Citi bailout for as much upside as they can get, probably before the selling kicks in again. I don't think ...
  3. When will the bear market be over?

    Stocks rallied again on Friday making Thanksgiving week one of the most bullish weeks in many, many years. We know bear markets can have explosive rallies. So, is that what this was, or is the bottom in?

    There are many things lining up suggesting that this market may have put in a bottom, but we are in a bear market and we have absolutely no proof that the bear market is over. That means we are also still in a "sell the rallies" mode until something tells us otherwise. The ...
  4. Can holiday rally continue next week?

    Stocks continue to climb as the C and S-funds put up some huge numbers again on Wednesday as the pre-holiday seasonality strength did not disappoint. Will the post-Thanksgiving Day seasonal strength be able to penetrate resistance?

    Seasonality says today should be a good one as well, but the S&P 500 has now moved up to the top of the descending bear trend line, so it will be interesting to see if this rally can continue. Today's volume will be very light (see the 2007 post T-Day ...
  5. Indecisive, but Buoyant

    Stocks had a difficult time choosing a direction yesterday, but it was one of those games where the last one with the ball was going to win - and yesterday, that was the bulls.

    The stocks funds had one of their more calmer days, but the S-fund did manage a 2% gain. In a "normal" world, 2% is usually a huge one day gain. Not so in this quarter. The bond fund finally saw a nice move higher as long term yields ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)