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Stocks were hit hard once again yesterday, giving back much of the gains made during the Thanksgiving week rally. I hope this scenario is now etched in your mind - holiday trading on light volume can reverse very quickly after the holiday.
Last Tuesday we said:
"This market is not out of the woods yet by any means, but the powers that be are going to milk this Citi bailout for as much upside as they can get, probably before the selling kicks in again. I don't think
Stocks rallied again on Friday making Thanksgiving week one of the most bullish weeks in many, many years. We know bear markets can have explosive rallies. So, is that what this was, or is the bottom in?
There are many things lining up suggesting that this market may have put in a bottom, but we are in a bear market and we have absolutely no proof that the bear market is over. That means we are also still in a "sell the rallies" mode until something tells us otherwise. The
Stocks continue to climb as the C and S-funds put up some huge numbers again on Wednesday as the pre-holiday seasonality strength did not disappoint. Will the post-Thanksgiving Day seasonal strength be able to penetrate resistance?
Seasonality says today should be a good one as well, but the S&P 500 has now moved up to the top of the descending bear trend line, so it will be interesting to see if this rally can continue. Today's volume will be very light (see the 2007 post T-Day
Stocks had a difficult time choosing a direction yesterday, but it was one of those games where the last one with the ball was going to win - and yesterday, that was the bulls.
The stocks funds had one of their more calmer days, but the S-fund did manage a 2% gain. In a "normal" world, 2% is usually a huge one day gain. Not so in this quarter. The bond fund finally saw a nice move higher as long term yields
Stocks followed through on Friday's big reversal day by tacking on 6% to 7% gains across the board. The swings continue to be wild and the light volume trading coming later this holiday week could keep volatility on the high side.
The trouble for stocks now is that they have not had much success during this bear market after two or three big up days. The good news for stocks is that Wednesday and Thursday of this week are historically