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  1. As goes January...

    Unlike in December, the market could not overcome the poor jobs report on Friday as stocks dropped sharply, closing at their lowest levels of the day. Not a good start to January.

    As the old adage says; As goes January, so goes the year. Some take it a step further and say; As goes the first week in January, so goes the month of January, ... and so goes the year.

    After a strong +3% start on January 2nd, the S&P 500 finished the first full week of January down 4.4%, ...
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  2. Jobs Report

    Stocks acted very well despite the Dow the closing in negative territory. The S&P closed up modestly, while the small caps and international stocks closed up over 1%.

    The S&P 500 is coiling up for something. It is riding a rising wedge, which can be bearish, and the index remains below the 50-day moving average (exponential). It did manage to stick its head above that declining trend line, which hasn't been much of a factor as the S&P 500 continues to move above and below ...
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  3. Stretched

    Stocks took a well deserved break yesterday after the very impressive Santa Claus rally. The best since 1974, so I hear. And the "pause" wasn't all that bad as small caps actually closed higher yet again. But oh brother, stocks are sure stretched to the upside now.

    The S&P 500 pulled back slightly but did manage to stay above that descending trend line and the 50-day moving average. So far so good, but the short-term indicators are not on the side of a continued rally ...
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  4. Will the real market please stand up

    Investors and traders took full advantage of the historically strong seasonality and light volume pattern of the holiday trading over the past two weeks. This week, reality kicks in and we should get a better idea if this recent rally is for real.

    The S&P 500 produced a breakout to a higher high, which is something we like to see, but with volume at about half of a normal trading day, it is very tough to trust the action. It has now given us a one day close above the downtrend ...
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  5. Happy New Year!

    The Santa Claus rally continued on Wednesday and we still have a couple of days of strong seasonality ahead of us. Will seasonality be able to overcome the extreme overbought, overly bullish readings we are seeing?

    The S&P 500 closed right up against resistance and is just below the 50-day exponential moving average. There are so many obstacles in the way for the market right now, and we'll just have to see if the strong seasonality can overcome these obstacles.

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