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  1. I'm not seeing the bullish case yet

    After a two-day rally, stocks took a break. The C and S funds were off 2.3% while the I fund faired a little better, being off just 0.50%. Bonds continued their rally as the F fund gained 0.45% on the day.

    From Friday's low to Monday's high the S&P 500 had jumped over 12%, so it was reasonable to expect a pullback. As bad as the 2.3% appeared, neither the bulls nor the bears could take charge as the chart shows us that the index put in an inside day, meaning the yesterday's high ...
  2. Guilty until proven innocent

    The market put in a very nice follow-through day after Friday's huge post-jobs-report reversal higher. The TSP stock funds were each up about 4% on the day, and surprisingly, bonds did not fall in the process.

    The S&P 500 gained 3.8% yesterday and as you see by the mess in the chart below, there are a lot of things going on.

    The initial resistance level was broken, paving the way for a nice rally. Once resistance is penetrated, traders are more willing to buy, and ...
  3. Jobs report triggers sell-off / rebound

    As we talked about on Friday, the jobs report was going to be the news of the day, and boy was it. Stocks dropped sharply, but rebounded strongly by the close. Where does that leave us now?

    It was reported that there was a loss of 533,000 jobs in November, over 200,000 more than was estimated. October's jobs report was also revised from a loss of 240,000 jobs to 320,000. This was absolutely awful news, and the market dropped hard early on. We mentioned on Friday that there is a tendency ...
  4. Late selloff into today's jobs report

    Stocks gave back Wednesday's gains yesterday with one swift late day selloff. The whats and whys don't really matter to me, but I'm sure that some of it had to do with not wanting to hold stocks into this morning's release of the November employment report.

    Some employment reports are more important than others. This one could be big. We all know that the economy is a mess. The question is, just how bad is it? The ...
  5. Higher high, or lower low?

    Stock were all over the place yesterday but when it counted, the bulls took charge and the major averages closed strongly to the upside to the tune of about 2.5%. There seemed to be some late money going to work on the bullish side the last two days, which is a good sign - but here come the tests.

    The swings remain violent and unless you are a day trader (trading several times a day) you are probably sitting by watching this like a deer caught in the headlights, because we don't know ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)