Daily Market Commentary

It was another rough week for the stock market and the TSP stock funds. Bonds also continued their struggle leaving only the G-fund with a gain for the week. The indices have been in a range between two key moving averages for a few days, one acting as support and the other resistance. The Dow managed a decent gain on Friday but the afternoon selling took away the early gains of the other major indices, and the I-fund may have held onto its gain only because the selling in the U.S. market came ...

It was a very volatile day of trading on Thursday as the bulls and the bears had a pretty good battle going on. The bulls won the day picking up a decent gain in the large cap indices, but the the bears kept the small caps down, and there were actually more stocks down overall, than up on the day. The Dow added 87-points, erasing a 300+ point morning loess. Oil was down, bonds and the dollar were up.

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The Fed's sentiment seems to be changing as they take a more hawkish tone with recent comments and per the recent FOMC meeting minutes, and the stock market reacted as we might expect since the Federal Reserve and their actions have been such major factor in our "free" markets. The Dow lost a modest 145-points with more significant percent losses in the broader indices. Oil fell sharply and below $100 a barrel, and 10-year bond yields move up to new highs.

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We saw some dip buying early on Tuesday after a slightly negative open, but the Fed stepped in and reminded investors and the market that they are still planning to what they have been telling us that they are going to do. Bond Yields moved up sharply on the Fed hawkish comment, and stocks rolled over. The Dow lost 281-points and small caps, which are very interest rate sensitive, lost over 2% on the day. Oil and the metals were up, then down, as the dollar continued to rally, boosted by that ...

April has started out on a bullish note, which is not uncommon, and we saw a solid rally on the second trading day of the month. The Dow gained 104-points but it was the tech heavy Nasdaq indices that performed best, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk, giving us flash back to the 2020 - 2021 bull market. Can it last, or has this just been a bear market rally? Bonds were up and the yield curve remains inverted.

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