TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed but mostly higher on Friday. The Nasdaq lagged with a small loss but all of the indices climbed back from the afternoon lows to rally into the close. The Dow gained a modest 92-points or 0.37%, while the S&P 500 added 0.17% making it a gain of over 2.5% for the week.

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This week comes with some important chart obstacles that could make of break this recent rally after 7 consecutive days of gains for the Dow.

We had an influx of positive news both economically and geopolitically, and the market has responded. Even the continuous pressure in the Mueller Investigation in Washington has started to become noise to investors. But could that mean that investors have gotten too complacent again? We'll find out as the charts move toward interesting pivot points.

Sorry, I have to cut this short today. I moved my office location over the weekend and I am having some technical issues related to our email server. I'm not sure if it's related to the move but the timing is suspicious, so... I have to get under the hood and take a look before doing much more. The IFT alerts for the premium services is not impacted since I use 3rd party services for them, but the forum notifications as well as responding to your emails is unfortunately on hold right now. Sorry for any inconveniences.

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The S&P 500 / C-fund broke through the longer-term descending channel last week (blue dashed) but may still be dealing with that large bear flag, although it is getting a little long in the tooth. If the bears are going to make there move, now would be the time, so if they can't...




The small caps / S-fund are flirting with their longer-term descending channel (blue dashed) but that head and shoulders pattern is now testing the middle of the head so here too it's make or break time for the bears if they want to take this down again.




The Dow Transportation Index is nearing its resistance line which has been repeatedly tested and repeatedly failed. Will a 5th time be the charm or will the channel continue to hold just above 10,800?




The EAFE / I-fund broke above its resistance line on Friday, but closed right on it. There are some small gaps below but in order to get them filled, the old resistance line would have to break and not hold as support.




The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund was down slightly on Friday but remains in a rising channel. There is an open gap near 86 so that area, if tested, would be a double dose of resistance to break.




The short-term indicators are now fairly overbought and they are both starting to wobble near 300.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but still deep in a bearish flag.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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