TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed yesterday but the big two, the Dow and S&P 500, made new highs yet again. The Dow gained 119-points, off the early highs but impressive non-the-less. Tax reform is getting closer and the Fed is on deck to tell what they plan to do with interest rates so there are catalysts out there that could propel stocks into the end of the year, or pull them back before the normal late December Santa Claus rally begins.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The Dow was the star of the show on Tuesday but actually 100 of the Dow's 120-point gain came from just two stocks, Boeing and Goldman Sachs. The Nasdaq was down, as were the small caps, which closed at their daily lows again, and the Transports were also down slightly.

The small caps underperformed again and they started to pullback after Rand Paul said he may not be able to vote for the final tax bill as is, but he said he is close. The latest plan will have a 21% corporate tax rate - a compromise between the original 20% rate and the most recent 22% proposal.

Today we get the Fed's decision on interest rates and the policy statement will be released around 2 PM ET, which could pack some interesting information. It will be Janet Yellen's final press conference and the market may miss her since the S&P 500 has gained 50% since she was appointed.

The market has priced in 2.5 rate hikes in 2018, but there's a good chance, and we may find out more today, that there could be more, especially if the economy remains strong.

The stock futures started to slip [Tuesday night] when the Senate race in Alabama was called for the democrat Doug Jones, but nothing serious initially as I write this. Another democrat in the Senate would obviously be a roadblock to President Trump's agenda and the markets seems to like that agenda at the moment. So, we could some market movement on this news.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) closed at a new high yesterday after making an intraday high earlier in the day before it pulled back in late trading.




The small caps / S-fund were flat yesterday as most of the attention was given to the large caps again, just like on Friday.




The Dow Transportation Index has been consolidating after a sharp rally higher. The question is whether it is running out of steam and getting ready to rollover, or if it is just churning and gathering strength for another push higher?




The EAFE Index (I-fund) was up nicely on the day as we saw big gains out of the London FTSE yesterday. It's trading right in the middle of its rising trading channel. There is still an open gap or two down below, but opens gaps are common here and don't always get filled right away like we see on other charts.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down but it rebounded strongly from some early lows that broke below that pesky pennant formation and the 50-day EMA. It did close below the pennant's support line so it is not a failed breakdown yet.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.