TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed on Monday, a day where the seasonality charts suggested we could see a little breather after a Thanksgiving week rally. The Dow gained 23-points while the Nasdaq and S&P saw small losses. The small caps, I-fund, and Transports took bigger hits.

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The Transports are continuing to disappoint as the chart of the market leader is failing at some key resistance, as you will see below.

The Senate is scheduled to vote on the tax plan on Thursday. I am not certain of the situation as far as if the Republicans have the votes necessary to get it passed. I assume they wouldn't call for a vote until they were sure, but that didn't work out for them during the last vote on repealing the Affordable Care Act.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was basically flat holding up at that dashed parallel rising support line while remaining in the middle of the larger rising trading channel.




The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) took more of a hit and we wouldn't be surprised to see it test the old resistance line, and / or try to fill the open gap from last Tuesday before resuming higher.




The Dow Transportation Index pulled back from the 50-day EMA and the bear flag, and that's not generally a good sign for the broader market.




A longer-term chart of the Transports shows some possible support near the bottom of the rising trading channel, and the 200-day EMA has been holding fairly firm since the summer of 2016.




The EAFE Index (I-fund) was down trying to fill in one of its many open gaps it created during the pre-Thanksgiving rally.




The dollar rallied sharply on Monday after the 2-day sell-off which left a couple of open gaps. This isn't looking too good, but a breakdown would likely be a plus for the I-fund.




The German DAX is key for the I-fund and it is in an interesting situation as it it trying to hold above the 50-day average, but creating a bear flag in the process.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was flat as it continues to trade in the narrowing wedge.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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