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Complacency at a new high

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The rally continued Thursday with solid gains in most of the major indices, with the Transports being the exceptions as they posted a small loss, as did the I-fund with the dollar moving higher again.. The Dow gained 114-points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq led the way with a 0.78% gain.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The VIX closed at 9.19 on Thursday, the lowest closing price in decades, and we are starting to see some smart money buying into the VIX ETF's looking for a rebound.

We get the September jobs report this morning (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of 75,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.

The TSP will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day despite some markets remaining open. Any Transactions made for 10/09 will not be processed until 10/10.

Thanks for your patience this week while I was busy, cutting the reports short, and possibly delaying replying to emails. Unfortunately this may go into next week as well. I apologize in advance for that inconvenience.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is extended and investors are overly bullish but that has not been enough to stop this market. The potential for tax cuts has the market giddy and it's not something they see everyday, but of course nothing has been done yet. The folks in Washington still have some negotiating to do and we know how tough it has been to get things passed over the last several years, so the market is rallying on hope at this point.

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke below some key long-term support recently but so far there has been no major breakdown from what looks like a possible bear flag. 109.25 is the next level of support, and on the upside, there is still a gap open near 109.65, but it will have to get back above that old support line first before it fills it.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to:

Thanks for reading. Have a great holiday weekend!

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
EFA (I Fund)
AGG (F Fund)