TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened higher on Tuesday but the early gains faded as they headed into the close and we ended with a flat day for the major larger indices.  The Dow lost 12-points, which makes it the first 4-day losing streak for the Industrials since June, but the losses have been minor, and of course it was coming off a 9-day winning streak.

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At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the small caps and Transports led on the upside again, and the I-fund lagged with the dollar having another good day, although it [the dollar] reversed down late after hitting some resistance.

It's been rather quiet during this last week in September, a normally rocky time for the market - and actually one of the least volatile Septembers in history - so I would say the bulls gets the nod as the winners for not giving up when it looked like the bears were ready to take charge.

The sideways movement has done a good job of taking the indices of some overbought levels, but at some point the bears will make a move if the bulls don't continue to push.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) tried to get back Monday's modest losses, and was doing so heading into the late afternoon yesterday, but just before the close the S&P turned down and closed basically flat. That small open gap (blue) was filled on Monday and so far that has held as support. The larger gap (red) is still open below. The PMO indicator has gone from flat to slightly rolling over in the last few days.




The DWCPF (S-fund) keeps chugging along although we've now seen two "indecisive" days in a row with those spinning top formations. It could be a sign of fatigue, but can you blame it after the run its had over the last month?




The Dow Transportation Index broke out to a new high on Tuesday, but it too has come a long way in a short amount of time.




The EAFE Index (I-fund) pulled back with the help of some strength in the dollar yesterday. The 20-day EMA held and now it has to decide which pair of open gaps it wants to try to fill first. There's two above and two below.




The dollar (UUP) gapped up on Tuesday moving above the 50-day EMA briefly before pulling back some, creating a possible negative reversal day. It did close with a gain of 0.33% and that did hurt the I-fund.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down a bit after the recent rebound off of support. The nearest open gap, which should have been a draw, seemed to repel bonds lower instead.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley
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