TSP Talk Blog

Yet another mixed day on Wall Street and the new highs in the Dow may be sending a smoke screen as the media hypes the action while the broader market is showing signs of wear. The Dow gained 61-points on the day, but the Nasdaq, small caps, and Transports - the market leaders - have been lagging of late possibly sending signs of trouble.

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Boeing accounted for about 70% of the gain in the Dow over the last week and the number of stocks participating in the rally has been dwindling. For those who watch these things, we got another Hindenburg Omen signal in the Dow, which is related to the new highs / new lows of individual stock vs. the indices. That's 8 signals in the last 30 days.

The S&P 500 has had 9 signals over the last 6 months, which is the most since the market peak in 2007.

I am sorry but I have a couple more days of being off my normal schedule so again I may not be available to respond to emails right away, and the next couple commentaries may be brief. The Premium Service System signals will be posted in the premium area as needed, as usual. Sorry for any inconvenience and thanks for your patience.

I may have to post the July AutoTracker winners a day or two late this month because of my traveling this week. I will be back in the office late Tuesday and should get all caught up by Wednesday.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) posted a small loss in a tightly traded day, but gave away some early gains. That's a possible small bear flag forming. I'm still not ruling out a pullback this month that fills the open gap down by the 50-day EMA.




The DWCPF (S-fund) managed to close off the lows and remains above that 1237 level that has provided good support, but again, the open gap is still there with a target on its back.




The Dow Transportation Index has been the laggard recently and it has made a series of bear flags over the last several months, with only one resolving to the upside (April). It's creating another one now.




The EFA (EAFE Index (I-fund) has been hovering near recent highs because of the continued weakness in the dollar. This is the chart of the dollar ETF, UUP.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has nearly filled its open gap near 109.8 and as we talked about the other day, this is either a bullish cup and handle forming, or a small bear flag off the recent double top. It's tough to tell right now.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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