TSP Talk Blog

The Nasdaq made it 10 straight positive days on Thursday with a 5-point gain, but it was a rather flat and mixed day for stocks as the Dow lost 29-points, the S&P and small caps were flat, and the Transports lagged with a 1 % decline.

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The dollar continues to slide and it it actually broke below some support on Thursday, helping the I-fund out.

After the bell yesterday Microsoft reported a solid earnings report pushing the stock to all-time highs in after hours trading, but then it dropped sharply after their earnings call so it will be interesting to see how it opens on Friday.  eBay sold off after hours after their report was released.

The market has not pulled back (well, the Transports have) despite being the weaker part of July, but today is the 21st and the next few days are historically the worst 3 day period in July, so we'll see.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pushed to new highs Thursday and despite the S&P actually closing down slightly, SPY closed with a slight gain. You can see that it is pushing the envelope here, breaking above longer term resistance (solid red channel) and probably, not definitely, due for some kind of a breather before proceeding higher, although that red dashed trading channel below shows some possible room on the upside.




The DWCPF (S-fund) closed off the highs and ended the day flat. It's near - slightly above - overhead resistance with two open gaps below.




The Dow Transportation Index is considered the market leader so its recent failed breakout could get some attention. The 50-day EMA is right there for some possible support for this recent pullback, and that could be key for the broader market.




The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) made another high despite some negatives in Germany and France...




... but a little follow up on Thursday's commentary on the London FTSE where I said, "the London FTSE may also be forming a large bear flag if it can't break solidly to the upside in the coming days", but as you can see below, it did just that, broke above the bear flag so that's pretty much off the table.




The dollar continues to help the I-fund and yesterday a new leg down broke through support. Again, it's probably due for a bounce with at three open gaps above, but apparently the Fed's new hawkish stance is still taking a toll on the greenback.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) filled that open gap and we could be looking for a pullback from here. At least temporarily, unless some economic news comes out to override the technical picture.




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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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