TSP Talk Blog

It was another slow, low volume day with the bulls and bears ping ponging between a small loss and small gains. The Dow ended the day up 37-points. Oil was hit hard again and that helped the Transportation Index, which is a market leader, but it puts a bit of a drag on the other indies.

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The U.K. general elections are being held today and that may have some impact, but I doubt it. It's not the same as we saw in France where France's status in the European Union was at stake.

The action has been slow in front of today's main event; The congressional testimony from James Comey regarding Russian collusion in our 2016 elections. With President Trump suggesting that he will be Tweeting during the testimony, you may want to get the popcorn ready and watch the action. Stocks may jump up and down on every comment.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) has created another bull flag, which tend to break to the upside so is that a tell for how the market will react to the Comey testimony, or is the market getting investors to lean the wrong way?




The DWCPF (S-fund) was up slightly as it went back and forth between gains and losses yesterday. This pullback created a bull flag on the S&P (SPY) but this double top pullback on the DWCPF has been a little steep to consider it a classic bull flag.




The Dow Transportation Index had a big day yesterday, coming back from earlier losses after an oil inventory report sent the price of oil reeling. That looks like a bull flag on this chart.




The price of oil fell over 5% yesterday and you can see the bearish action continues for crude. This does put somewhat of a drag on the general market, although as we see above, the Transports like it. It makes shipping costs and flying airplanes cheaper for them.




The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was flat and remains in a boring, but positive, rising trading channel.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) pulled back slightly but remains near recent highs. We see a possible rising wedge forming, and since they tend to break down, I suspect a test of the 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA is a possibility as yields are getting quite low.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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