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I-fund flies while dollar dies

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The Nasdaq led the way as large cap tech continues to roll. The Dow and S&P 500, along with the small caps and Transports, were all down slightly but closed well off their lows. The Dow lost 2-points. The I-fund had another good day as the dollar continues to decline.

Daily TSP Funds Return


We have a market that has few catalysts right now, so the bulls are tentative, but the bears are keeping their distance as well. Anyone betting against the market has been stuck, but the bulls haven't been overly rewarded either, unless you have been cherry picking your investments where international and tech stocks are the winners.


The S&P 500 / C-fund backed off after hitting another new high to start the day. It closed just south of the March high again. The trend is up and this could be an "F" flag formation we see forming. They can go on for some time but when they end it tends to be with a thud. I still look to the open gaps, which there are now 3, as possible downside targets if this market ever runs out of gas.




The DWCPF (S-fund) remains in a bear flag but so far the flag has failed to breakdown. There were a few fake-outs but for the most part it has been hanging tough. At this point the flag could still break down, but the longer it holds the more of a change that we could be seeing a low forming at the 50-day EMA.




The Dow Transportation Index remains in its 3rd bear flag. The breakdown from the 2nd set up the pole for the 3rd, and both are within the larger flag in purple.




The dollar (UUP) gapped down for a 3rd straight day and this time it fell below the 2017 support line.




This has helped the EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) become the best performing TSP Fund for the year. Another gap was opened here as it reached to new highs.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) held for a 3rd straight day above the resistance line and bonds seem to be in favor again by investors. Why that would be, I don't know, since the economy seems to be holding up. A housing report seems to trigger buying this morning, but why bond yields are falling, especially a few weeks before another scheduled rate high by the Fed, is an interesting question.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php


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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)